ESTIMATING LANDSCAPE-SCALE SPECIES RICHNESS: RECONCILING FREQUENCY- AND TURNOVER-BASED APPROACHES

One hypothesis for why estimators of species richness tend to underestimate total richness is that they do not explicitly account for increases in species richness due to spatial or environmental turnover in species composition (beta diversity). I analyze the similarity of a data set of native trees in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA, and assess the robustness of these estimators against recently developed ones that incorporate turnover explicitly: the total species accumulation method (T-S) and a method based on the distance decay of similarity. I show that the T-S estimator can give reliable estimates of species richness, given an appropriate grouping of sites. The estimator based on distance decay of similarity performed poorly. There are two main reasons for this: sample size effects and the assumption that distance decay of similarity exhibits a power law relationship. I show that estimators based on distance-decay relationships exhibit systematically lower rates of distance decay for samples with few individuals per site independent of environmental variation. Second, the data presented here and many other survey data sets exhibit exponential rather than power law distance-decay relationships. Richness estimators that explicitly incorporate beta diversity can be improved by beginning from an exponential distance-decay relationship and adjusting for the systematic errors introduced by small sample sizes

Biodiversity and Scale: Determinants of Species Richness in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Species richness is the number of species in a given area or sample and is the most fundamental measure of biodiversity. It results from the aggregation of individual species whose distributions are influenced by processes operating on a wide range of scales. Estimating and understanding species richness at landscape scales (103-106 ha) is not easily achieved from small sample areas that can be completely inventoried. In particular the spatial structure of environments makes the richness observations across a landscape non-additive. This dissertation develops the vital links between the spatial structure of ecological factors that are hypothesized to control species richness, spatial variation in species composition, and the sampling strategies used to measure species richness. I present a method for objectively and iteratively assessing patterns of biodiversity. This method builds upon "ecological zipcodes" that classify the landscape by energy flux, temperature, and precipitation. I also present a model of human energetic expenditure during walking that can be applied at landscape scales. I use this model to analyze sampling bias associated with accessibility for vegetation surveys. I used both the "ecological zipcodes" and the model of accessibility to design efficient and representative biodiversity samples based on clustered-stratified sampling. Finally, I assess the reliability of richness estimators that incorporate turnover in species composition. My results illustrate that efficient and representative richness assessment is possible, even with little a priori knowledge about the spatial structure of species richness. They also demonstrate that typical biodiversity assessments show a strong bias in accessibility that is both a product of the spatial structuring of samples as well as environment. This bias is significant even for small biases in sample accessibility. Also, I show that though clustered sampling designs capture multiple scales of aggregation, their representativeness is very sensitive to stratification. Finally, my results show that species richness estimates that incorporate turnover are confounded by the interaction between sample size and environmental heterogeneity. Only when controlling for these effects, can information about the spatial turnover in species composition be effective in estimating species richness

Population-environment drivers of H5N1 avian influenza molecular change in Vietnam

This study identifies population and environment drivers of genetic change in H5N1 avian influenza viruses (AIV) in Vietnam using a landscape genetics approach. While prior work has examined how combinations of local-level environmental variables influence H5N1 occurrence, this research expands the analysis to the complex genetic characteristics of H5N1 viruses. A dataset of 125 highly pathogenic H5N1 AIV isolated in Vietnam from 2003–2007 is used to explore which population and environment variables are correlated with increased genetic change among viruses. Results from non-parametric multidimensional scaling and regression analyses indicate that variables relating to both the environmental and social ecology of humans and birds in Vietnam interact to affect the genetic character of viruses. These findings suggest that it is a combination of suitable environments for species mixing, the presence of high numbers of potential hosts, and in particular the temporal characteristics of viral occurrence, that drive genetic change among H5N1 AIV in Vietnam

How complex do models need to be to predict dispersal of threatened species through matrix habitats?

Persistence of species in fragmented landscapes depends on dispersal among suitable breeding sites, and dispersal is often influenced by the "matrix" habitats that lie between breeding sites. However, measuring effects of different matrix habitats on movement and incorporating those differences into spatially explicit models to predict dispersal is costly in terms of time and financial resources. Hence a key question for conservation managers is: Do more costly, complex movement models yield more accurate dispersal predictions? We compared the abilities of a range of movement models, from simple to complex, to predict the dispersal of an endangered butterfly, the Saint Francis' satyr (Neonympha mitchellii francisci). The value of more complex models differed depending on how value was assessed. Although the most complex model, based on detailed movement behaviors, best predicted observed dispersal rates, it was only slightly better than the simplest model, which was based solely on distance between sites. Consequently, a parsimony approach using information criteria favors the simplest model we examined. However, when we applied the models to a larger landscape that included proposed habitat restoration sites, in which the composition of the matrix was different than the matrix surrounding extant breeding sites, the simplest model failed to identify a potentially important dispersal barrier, open habitat that butterflies rarely enter, which may completely isolate some of the proposed restoration sites from other breeding sites. Finally, we found that, although the gain in predicting dispersal with increasing model complexity was small, so was the increase in financial cost. Furthermore, a greater fit continued to accrue with greater financial cost, and more complex models made substantially different predictions than simple models when applied to a novel landscape in which butterflies are to be reintroduced to bolster their populations. This suggests that more complex models might be justifiable on financial grounds. Our results caution against a pure parsimony approach to deciding how complex movement models need to be to accurately predict dispersal through the matrix, especially if the models are to be applied to novel or modified landscapes

Imaging CF\u3csub\u3e3\u3c/sub\u3eI conical intersection and photodissociation dynamics with ultrafast electron diffraction

Conical intersections play a critical role in excited-state dynamics of polyatomic molecules because they govern the reaction pathways of many nonadiabatic processes. However, ultrafast probes have lacked sufficient spatial resolution to image wave-packet trajectories through these intersections directly. Here, we present the simultaneous experimental characterization of one-photon and two-photon excitation channels in isolated CF3I molecules using ultrafast gas-phase electron diffraction. In the two-photon channel, we have mapped out the real-space trajectories of a coherent nuclear wave packet, which bifurcates onto two potential energy surfaces when passing through a conical intersection. In the one-photon channel, we have resolved excitation of both the umbrella and the breathing vibrational modes in the CF3 fragment in multiple nuclear dimensions. These findings benchmark and validate ab initio nonadiabatic dynamics calculations. Includes supplementary materials. Movie S1 attached below

Spatiotemporal Structure of Molecular Evolution of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses in Vietnam

BackgroundVietnam is one of the countries most affected by outbreaks of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses. First identified in Vietnam in poultry in 2001 and in humans in 2004, the virus has since caused 111 cases and 56 deaths in humans. In 2003/2004 H5N1 outbreaks, nearly the entire poultry population of Vietnam was culled. Our earlier study (Wan et al., 2008, PLoS ONE, 3(10): e3462) demonstrated that there have been at least six independent H5N1 introductions into Vietnam and there were nine newly emerged reassortants from 2001 to 2007 in Vietnam. H5N1 viruses in Vietnam cluster distinctly around Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. However, the nature of the relationship between genetic divergence and geographic patterns is still unclear.Methodology/Principal FindingsIn this study, we hypothesized that genetic distances between H5N1 viruses in Vietnam are correlated with geographic distances, as the result of distinct population and environment patterns along Vietnam's long north to south longitudinal extent. Based on this hypothesis, we combined spatial statistical methods with genetic analytic techniques and explicitly used geographic space to explore genetic evolution of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses at the sub-national scale in Vietnam. Our dataset consisted of 125 influenza viruses (with whole genome sets) isolated in Vietnam from 2003 to 2007. Our results document the significant effect of space and time on genetic evolution and the rise of two regional centers of genetic mixing by 2007. These findings give insight into processes underlying viral evolution and suggest that genetic differentiation is associated with the distance between concentrations of human and poultry populations around Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.Conclusions/SignificanceThe results show that genetic evolution of H5N1 viruses in Vietnamese domestic poultry is highly correlated with the location and spread of those viruses in geographic space. This correlation varies by scale, time, and gene, though a classic isolation by distance pattern is observed. This study is the first to characterize the geographic structure of influenza viral evolution at the sub-national scale in Vietnam and can shed light on how H5N1 HPAIVs evolve in certain geographic settings

Why Do Species Co-Occur? A Test of Alternative Hypotheses Describing Abiotic Differences in Sympatry versus Allopatry Using Spadefoot Toads

Areas of co-occurrence between two species (sympatry) are often thought to arise in regions where abiotic conditions are conducive to both species and are therefore intermediate between regions where either species occurs alone (allopatry). Depending on historical factors or interactions between species, however, sympatry might not differ from allopatry, or, alternatively, sympatry might actually be more extreme in abiotic conditions relative to allopatry. Here, we evaluate these three hypothesized patterns for how sympatry compares to allopatry in abiotic conditions. We use two species of congeneric spadefoot toads, Spea multiplicata and S. bombifrons, as our study system. To test these hypotheses, we created ecological niche models (specifically using Maxent) for both species to create a map of the joint probability of occurrence of both species. Using the results of these models, we identified three types of locations: two where either species was predicted to occur alone (i.e., allopatry for S. multiplicata and allopatry for S. bombifrons) and one where both species were predicted to co-occur (i.e., sympatry). We then compared the abiotic environment between these three location types and found that sympatry was significantly hotter and drier than the allopatric regions. Thus, sympatry was not intermediate between the alternative allopatric sites. Instead, sympatry occurred at one extreme of the conditions occupied by both species. We hypothesize that biotic interactions in these extreme environments facilitate co-occurrence. Specifically, hybridization between S. bombifrons females and S. multiplicata males may facilitate co-occurrence by decreasing development time of tadpoles. Additionally, the presence of alternative food resources in more extreme conditions may preclude competitive exclusion of one species by the other. This work has implications for predicting how interacting species will respond to climate change, because species interactions may facilitate survival in extreme habitats

Principal components of the abiotic environment.

<p>Means (+/− s.e.) for the first two principal components describing variation in the eight environmental variables used to build ecological niche models. Different letters indicate significantly different means; each group (<i>S. multiplicata</i> in allopatry, <i>S. bombifrons</i> in allopatry, and sympatry), is significantly different from the other two.</p

Range maps of predicted sympatry.

<p>Range maps of predicted sympatry between <i>Spea multiplicata</i> and <i>S. bombifrons</i>. The value for each 1 km sq pixel was calculated by multiplying the logistic value of both species, and values range from 0 (white) to 1 (dark green). Sites used in the environmental analysis are indicated by points. Specifically, blue squares represented collection locations for <i>S. bombifrons</i> that occurred in areas predicted to be allopatric for that species; orange circles represent collection locations for <i>S. multiplicata</i> records that were predicted to be allopatric for that species, whereas gray triangles represent collection locations for either species in areas predicted to be sympatric.</p