Major flaws in conflict prevention policies towards Africa : the conceptual deficits of international actors’ approaches and how to overcome them

Current thinking on African conflicts suffers from misinterpretations oversimplification, lack of focus, lack of conceptual clarity, state-centrism and lack of vision). The paper analyses a variety of the dominant explanations of major international actors and donors, showing how these frequently do not distinguish with sufficient clarity between the ‘root causes’ of a conflict, its aggravating factors and its triggers. Specifically, a correct assessment of conflict prolonging (or sustaining) factors is of vital importance in Africa’s lingering confrontations. Broader approaches (e.g. “structural stability”) offer a better analytical framework than familiar one-dimensional explanations. Moreover, for explaining and dealing with violent conflicts a shift of attention from the nation-state towards the local and sub-regional level is needed.Aktuelle Analysen afrikanischer Gewaltkonflikte sind häufig voller Fehlinterpretationen (Mangel an Differenzierung, Genauigkeit und konzeptioneller Klarheit, Staatszentriertheit, fehlende mittelfristige Zielvorstellungen). Breitere Ansätze (z. B. das Modell der Strukturellen Stabilität) könnten die Grundlage für bessere Analyseraster und Politiken sein als eindimensionale Erklärungen. häufig differenzieren Erklärungsansätze nicht mit ausreichender Klarheit zwischen Ursachen, verschärfenden und auslösenden Faktoren. Insbesondere die richtige Einordnung konfliktverlängernder Faktoren ist in den jahrzehntelangen gewaltsamen Auseinandersetzungen in Afrika von zentraler Bedeutung. Das Diskussionspapier stellt die große Variationsbreite dominanter Erklärungsmuster der wichtigsten internationalen Geber und Akteure gegenüber und fordert einen Perspektivenwechsel zum Einbezug der lokalen und der subregionalen Ebene für die Erklärung und Bearbeitung gewaltsamer Konflikte

Patient Age, Sex, and Inflammatory Bowel Disease Phenotype Associate With Course of Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is an orphan hepatobiliary disorder associated with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We aimed to estimate the risk of disease progression based on distinct clinical phenotypes in a large international cohort of patients with PSC. METHODS: We performed a retrospective outcome analysis of patients diagnosed with PSC from 1980 through 2010 at 37 centers in Europe, North America, and Australia. For each patient, we collected data on sex, clinician-reported age at and date of PSC and IBD diagnoses, phenotypes of IBD and PSC, and date and indication of IBD-related surgeries. The primary and secondary endpoints were liver transplantation or death (LTD) and hepatopancreatobiliary malignancy, respectively. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to determine the effects of individual covariates on rates of clinical events, with time-to-event analysis ascertained through Kaplan-Meier estimates. RESULTS: Of the 7121 patients in the cohort, 2616 met the primary endpoint (median time to event of 14.5 years) and 721 developed hepatopancreatobiliary malignancy. The most common malignancy was cholangiocarcinoma (n = 594); patients of advanced age at diagnosis had an increased incidence compared with younger patients (incidence rate: 1.2 per 100 patient-years for patients younger than 20 years old, 6.0 per 100 patient-years for patients 21-30 years old, 9.0 per 100 patient-years for patients 31-40 years old, 14.0 per 100 patient-years for patients 4150 years old, 15.2 per 100 patient-years for patients 51-60 years old, and 21.0 per 100 patient-years for patients older than 60 years). Of all patients with PSC studied, 65.5% were men, 89.8% had classical or large-duct disease, and 70.0% developed IBD at some point. Assessing the development of IBD as a time-dependent covariate, Crohn's disease and no IBD (both vs ulcerative colitis) were associated with a lower risk of LTD (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.62; PPeer reviewe

The Resource Curse and Rentier States in the Caspian Region : A Need for Context Analysis

Although much attention is paid to the Caspian region with regard to energy issues, the domestic consequences of the region’s resource production have so far constituted a neglected field of research. A systematic survey of the latest research trends in the economic and political causalities of the resource curse and of rentier states reveals that there is a need for context analysis. In reference to this, the paper traces any shortcomings and promising approaches in the existent body of literature on the Caspian region. Following on from this, the paper then proposes a new approach; specifically, one in which any differences and similarities in the context conditions are captured. This enables a more precise exploration of the exact ways in which they form contemporary post-Soviet Caspian rentier states.Obwohl der Region am Kaspischen Meer im Zuge von Energiediskursen große Aufmerksamkeit zuteil wird, stellen die innerstaatlichen Folgen der Ressourcenproduktion in der Region ein bislang vernachlässigtes Forschungsfeld dar. Ein systematischer Überblick über die jüngsten Forschungstrends zu wirtschaftlichen und politischen Kausalzusammenhängen des Ressourcenfluchs und zu Rentierstaaten offenbart die Notwendigkeit von Kontextanalysen. Hierauf Bezug nehmend, analysiert der Aufsatz sowohl die Mängel als auch viel versprechende Ansätze in der betreffenden Literatur zur Region am Kaspischen Meer. Der Aufsatz stellt letztendlich einen neuen Ansatz vor, der Unterschiede und Gemeinsamkeiten in den Kontextbedingungen erfasst, um zu erforschen, wie diese die gegenwärtigen post-sowjetischen Rentierstaaten in der Region am Kaspischen Meer tatsächlich prägen