Do better prisons reduce recidivism? Evidence from a prison construction program

From the US to Colombia, from India to Uganda, many inmates suffer from underprovision of services such as surveillance or rehabilitation in overcrowded prisons. Yet, we know little about how prison quality affects long-term inmate outcomes. I study a prison construction program in Colombia and find t hat q uasi-random assignment of inmates to less crowded, and higher service facilities reduced recidivism. Criminal capital is an important mechanism. Less crowded and better service facilities are associated with a lower level of unsupervised criminal contact within prisons. The program led to substantial welfare gains, even when assuming a low social cost per crime

The Deterrent Effect of Surveillance Cameras on Crime

From the US to Colombia to China, millions of public surveillance cameras are at the core of crime prevention strategies. Yet, we know little about the effects of surveillance cameras on criminal behavior, especially in developing economies. We study an installation program in Medellín and find t hat t he q uasi-random allocation of cameras led to a decrease in crimes and arrests. With no increase in the monitoring capacity and no chance to use camera footage in prosecution, these results suggest offenders were deterred rather than incapacitated. We test for spillovers and find no evidence of crime displacement or diffusion of benefits to surrounding locations

Criminal capital persistence: Evidence from 90,000 inmates’ releases

We study persistence in criminal capital by looking at the effects of inmates’ releaseson crime around prisons in Colombia. Leveraging detailed geographic and temporal information on the universe of releases from all prisons and crime reports, we find that property crimes are 16% higher around prisons on days inmates are released. Inmates specialized in property crimes drive the impacts. Improvements in non-criminal human capital or longer incarceration spells do not mitigate these effects. These results suggest the specific deterrence or rehabilitation effects of incarceration are weak for individuals with higher initial levels of criminal capital. We also document two externalities resulting from incarcerating specialized criminals. First, we find evidence of adverse peer effects. Second, in a back-of-the-envelope estimation, we document that crime incidence due to prison location drops property values and property tax revenues. Our results raise concerns about the usefulness of incarceration in its most widely adopted form

Broken windows policing and crime: Evidence from 80 Colombian cities

We study the effects of broken windows policing on crime using geo-located crime and arrest reports for 80 Colombian cities. Broadly defined, broken windows policing consists of intensifying arrests—sometimes for minor offenses—to deter potential criminals. To estimate causal effects, we build grids of 200 × 200 meters over the urban perimeter of all cities and produce event studies to look at the effects of shocks in police activity in the periods to follow. We use spikes in the number of arrests with no warrant—which are more likely associated with unplanned police presence—as a proxy for shocks in broken windows policing. As expected, we observe an increase in crimes during the shock period, as each arrest implies at least one crime report. In the following periods, crimes decrease both in the place of the arrests and the surroundings. With many treated grids and many places exposed to spillovers, these effects add up. On aggregate, the crime reduction offsets the observed increase during the shock period. Direct effects are more immediate and precise at low crime grids, but beneficial spillovers seem more relevant at crime hot spots. The effects of broken windows policing circumscribe to cities with low or moderate organized crime, consistent with criminal organizations planning their activities more systematically than disorganized criminals

The Evolution of Citizen Security in Colombia in Times of COVID-19

This technical note examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on crime and law enforcement dynamics in Colombia. The analysis uses administrative data on police reports and arrests for different types of offenses. It applies a “difference-in-differences” model, comparing the number of reports and arrests during the quarantine against their pre-quarantine trend. The results show a marked decline in homicides, motor vehicle theft, and other theft types in the initial weeks of the quarantine. The strong initial declines attenuated over time. The results reveal differences in crime dynamics between different regions of the country. The analysis also shows how COVID-19 modified police activity: arrests for offenses such as homicide and robbery decreased, and arrests due to threats to public health increased. This article contributes to a growing number of studies on the pandemic’s social impact and provides data and tools to inform citizen security and criminal justice policies

Impuesto predial y desarrollo económico.Aproximación a la relación entre el impuesto predial y la inversión de los municipios de Antioquia.

This paper discusses the relationship between the levels of investment in health and education made by the municipalities and the collection of property taxes. A data panel methodology was used with a sample of 97 municipalities in the department of Antioquia (Colombia) for the period 2000 - 2008. According to the results, it is possible to conclude that there is no relationship between the levels of autonomous investment in education and the collection of property taxes. On the other hand, in relation to health investments, a negative relationship was found between property tax collection and autonomous investment in health. Finally, in addition to the initial scope proposed, a positive relationship was shown between the collection of property taxes and investments in the development of roads and infrastructure.El artículo analiza las relaciones existentes entre los niveles de inversión en salud y educación por parte de los municipios, y el recaudo del impuesto predial. Se utiliza la metodología de panel de datos, entre los años 2000 y 2008, en una muestra de 97 municipios del departamento de Antioquia (Colombia). De acuerdo con los resultados, se logra determinar que no existe ninguna relación entre los niveles de inversión autónoma en educación y el recaudo de impuesto predial; por otra parte, respecto a las inversiones en salud, se identifica que el recaudo del impuesto presenta una relación negativa con las inversiones autónomas. Finalmente, como una extensión del alcance inicial planteado, se logró determinar una relación positiva entre el recaudo de impuesto predial y las inversiones en desarrollo de vías e infraestructura

Impuesto predial y desarrollo económico. Aproximación a la relación entre el impuesto predial y la inversión de los municipios de Antioquia

This paper discusses the relationship between the levels of investment in health and education made by the municipalities and the collection of property taxes -- A data panel methodology was used with a sample of 97 municipalities in the department of Antioquia (Colombia) for the period 2000 – 2008 -- According to the results, it is possible to conclude that there is no relationship between the levels of autonomous investment in education and the collection of property taxes -- On the other hand, in relation to health investments, a negative relationship was found between property tax collection and autonomous investment in health -- Finally, in addition to the initial scope proposed, a positive relationship was shown between the collection of property taxes and investments in the development of roads and infrastructureEl artículo analiza las relaciones existentes entre los niveles de inversión en salud y educación por parte de los municipios, y el recaudo del impuesto predial -- Se utiliza la metodología de panel de datos, entre los años 2000 y 2008, en una muestra de 97 municipios del departamento de Antioquia (Colombia) -- De acuerdo con los resultados, se logra determinar que no existe ninguna relación entre los niveles de inversión autónoma en educación y el recaudo de impuesto predial; por otra parte, respecto a las inversiones en salud, se identifica que el recaudo del impuesto presenta una relación negativa con las inversiones autónomas -- Finalmente, como una extensión del alcance inicial planteado, se logró determinar una relación positiva entre el recaudo de impuesto predial y las inversiones en desarrollo de vías e infraestructur

Does land titling matter? : The role of land property rights in the war on illicit crops in Colombia

This paper analyzes the role of formalization of land property rights in the war against illicit crops in Colombia. We argue that as a consequence of the increase of state presence and visibility during the period of 2000 and 2009, municipalities with a higher level of formalization of their land property rights saw a greater reduction in the area allocated to illicit crops. We hypothesize that this is due to the increased cost of growing illicit crops on formal land compared to informal, and due to the possibility of obtaining more benets in the newly in- stalled institutional environment when land is formalized. We exploit the variation in the level of formalization of land property rights in a set of municipalities that had their rst cadastral census collected in the period of 1994-2000; this selection procedure guarantees reliable data and an unbiased source of variation. Using fixed effects estimators, we found a signicant negative relationship between the level of formalization of land property rights and the number of hectares allocated to coca crops per municipality. These results remain robust through a number of sensitivity analyses. Our ndings contribute to the growing body of evidence on the positive effects of formal land property rights, and e ective policies in the war on drugs in Colombia

Los resultados adversos en el tratamiento de la tuberculosis resistente a múltiples fármacos sobrepasan la relación fármaco-microorganismo: resultados de un análisis de correspondencia múltiple

Introduction: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment is effective in 50% of patients due to several factors including antibiotic susceptibility of the microorganism, adverse treatment reactions, social factors, and associated comorbidities.Objectives: In this study, we describe the demographics, clinical characteristics, and factors associated with treatment outcomes in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) patients in Medellín, Colombia.Materials and methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis using data from patients diagnosed with MDR-TB attending Hospital La María in Medellín, Colombia, for treatment between 2010 and 2015. Patients were categorized as having successful (cured) or poor (failure, lost to follow-up, and death) treatment outcomes. Associations between demographic, clinical factors, laboratory results, treatment outcomes, and follow-up information were evaluated by univariate, multivariate, and multiple correspondence analyses.Results: Of the 128 patients with MDR-TB, 77 (60%) had successful outcomes. Of those with poor outcomes, 26 were lost to follow-up, 15 died, and 10 were treatment failures. Irregular treatment, the presence of comorbidities, and positive cultures after more than two months of treatment were associated with poor outcomes compared to successful ones (p<0.05 for all). The multiple correspondence analyses grouped patients who were lost to follow-up, had HIV, and drug addiction, as well as patients with treatment failure, irregular treatment, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.Conclusion: The recognition of factors affecting treatment is essential and was associated with treatment outcomes in this series of patients. Early identification of these factors should increase the rates of treatment success and contribute to MDR-TB control.Introducción. El tratamiento de la tuberculosis multirresistente tiene una efectividad del 50 %, afectado por múltiples factores como la sensibilidad del microorganismo, las reacciones secundarias, los factores sociales y las comorbilidades existentes.Objetivos. Describir la demografía, las características clínicas y los factores pronósticos asociados con los resultados del tratamiento en pacientes multirresistentes (TB-MDR) de Medellín, Colombia.Métodos. Se hizo un análisis retrospectivo de los datos de los pacientes con TB-MDR atendidos en el Hospital La María de Medellín, Colombia, que fueron tratados entre el 2010 y el 2015. Los pacientes se categorizaron con tratamiento exitoso (curados) o con tratamiento fallido (falla en el tratamiento, pérdida durante el seguimiento y muerte). Se determinó la asociación entre las características demográficas y clínicas, los resultados de los exámenes de laboratorio, los desenlaces del tratamiento y la información del seguimiento, utilizando análisis univariado, multivariado y de correspondencia múltiple.Resultados. De 128 pacientes con TB-MDR, 77 (60 %) tuvieron un tratamiento exitoso. De los que tuvieron un tratamiento fallido, 26 pacientes se perdieron en el seguimiento, 15 murieron y 10 tuvieron falla en el tratamiento. El tratamiento irregular, las comorbilidades y los cultivos positivos más allá de 2 meses de tratamiento se asociaron significativamente con los tratamientos fallidos (p<0,05). El análisis de correspondencia múltiple agrupó los pacientes con pérdida en el seguimiento, con HIV y tratamientos irregulares, y los pacientes con tratamientos irregulares y enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica con falla en el tratamiento y muerte.Conclusión. El reconocimiento temprano de los factores que afectan el desenlace del tratamiento de los pacientes con TB-MDR es esencial; la identificación de dichos factores debería incrementar el éxito del tratamiento y contribuir al adecuado control de la TB-MDR

Prison overcrowding and recidivism : evidence from an expansion in prison capacity

I investigate the relationship between prison overcrowding and recidivism by focusing on the rearrest rates of inmates exposed to different levels of overcrowding. To do so, I exploit an exogenous variation in overcrowding levels suffered by inmates resulting from an expansion of about 25 thousand slots in the Colombian penitentiary systm. Since 2004 and up to 2013 some prisons were expanded and others built. Results for the intention to treat show that inmates at treated prisons are between 0.6 and 1 percentage point less likely to be rearrested the same calendar year of release (i.e. 30% to 50% relative to the average rearrest rate). The local effect for inmates who actually saw a change in overcrowding shows that a one standard deviation increase in the overcrowding level (i.e. 67.1 percentage points or 94% relative to the mean), causes an increase of 1.4 percentage points in the likelihood of rearrest in the same calendar year of the inmate's release (i.e. 70% relative to the average rearrest rate). This effect seems to be driven by a limitation to enroll into rehabilitation programs.Magíster en EconomíaMaestrí