Early transmission and case fatality of Ebola virus at the index site of the 2013-16 west African Ebola outbreak: a cross-sectional seroprevalence survey.

BACKGROUND: To date, epidemiological studies at the index site of the 2013-16 west African Ebola outbreak in Meliandou, Guinea, have been restricted in their scope. We aimed to determine the occurrence of previously undocumented Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases and infections, and to reconstruct transmission events. METHODS: This cross-sectional seroprevalence survey of the adult population of Meliandou used a highly specific oral fluid test and detailed interviews of all households in the village and key informants. Each household was interviewed, with all members prompted to describe the events of the outbreak, any illness within the household, and possible contact with suspected cases. Information for deceased individuals was provided by relatives living in the same household. Symptoms were based on Ebola virus Makona variant EVD case definitions (focusing on fever, vomiting, and diarrhoea). For antibody testing, we used an Ebola virus glycoprotein IgG capture enzyme immunoassay developed from a previously validated assay. A maximum exposure level was assigned to every participant using a predetermined scale. We used a generalised linear model (logit function) to estimate odds ratios for the association of sociodemographic variables and exposure level with Ebola virus infection. We adjusted estimates for age and maximum exposure, as appropriate. FINDINGS: Between June 22, and July 9, 2017, we enrolled 237 participants from 27 households in Meliandou. Two households refused to participate and one was absent. All adults in participating households who were present for the interview provided an oral fluid swab for testing, of which 224 were suitable for analysis. In addition to the 11 EVD deaths described previously, on the basis of clinical description and oral fluid testing, we found two probable EVD deaths and eight previously unrecognised anti-Ebola virus IgG-positive survivors, including one who had mild symptoms and one who was asymptomatic, resulting in a case fatality of 55·6% (95% CI 30·8-78·5) for adults. Health-care work (adjusted odds ratio 6·64, 1·54-28·56; p=0·001) and level of exposure (odds ratio adjusted for linear trend across five levels 2·79, 1·59-4·883; p<0·0001) were independent risk factors for infection. INTERPRETATION: Ebola virus infection was more widespread in this spillover population than previously recognised (21 vs 11 cases). We show the first serological evidence of survivors in this population (eight anti-Ebola virus IgG seropositive) and report a case fatality lower than previously reported (55·6% vs 100% in adults). These data show the high community coverage achievable by using a non-invasive test and, by accurately documenting the beginnings of the west African Ebola virus outbreak, reveal important insight into transmission dynamics and risk factors that underpin Ebola virus spillover events. FUNDING: US Food and Drug Administration, Wellcome Trust, and German Research Council

Quantifying Population Burden and Effectiveness of Decentralized Surveillance Strategies for Skin-Presenting Neglected Tropical Diseases, Liberia.

We evaluated programmatic approaches for skin neglected tropical disease (NTD) surveillance and completed a robust estimation of the burden of skin NTDs endemic to West Africa (Buruli ulcer, leprosy, lymphatic filariasis morbidity, and yaws). In Maryland, Liberia, exhaustive case finding by community health workers of 56,285 persons across 92 clusters identified 3,241 suspected cases. A total of 236 skin NTDs (34.0 [95% CI 29.1-38.9]/10,000 persons) were confirmed by midlevel healthcare workers trained using a tailored program. Cases showed a focal and spatially heterogeneous distribution. This community health worker‒led approach showed a higher skin NTD burden than prevailing surveillance mechanisms, but also showed high (95.1%) and equitable population coverage. Specialized training and task-shifting of diagnoses to midlevel health workers led to reliable identification of skin NTDs, but reliability of individual diagnoses varied. This multifaceted evaluation of skin NTD surveillance strategies quantifies benefits and limitations of key approaches promoted by the 2030 NTD roadmap of the World Health Organization

Epidemiology of soil-transmitted helminths following sustained implementation of routine preventive chemotherapy: Demographics and baseline results of a cluster randomised trial in southern Malawi.

Malawi has successfully leveraged multiple delivery platforms to scale-up and sustain the implementation of preventive chemotherapy (PCT) for the control of morbidity caused by soil-transmitted helminths (STH). Sentinel monitoring demonstrates this strategy has been successful in reducing STH infection in school-age children, although our understanding of the contemporary epidemiological profile of STH across the broader community remains limited. As part of a multi-site trial evaluating the feasibility of interrupting STH transmission across three countries, this study aimed to describe the baseline demographics and the prevalence, intensity and associated risk factors of STH infection in Mangochi district, southern Malawi. Between October-December 2017, a community census was conducted across the catchment area of seven primary healthcare facilities, enumerating 131,074 individuals across 124 villages. A cross-sectional parasitological survey was then conducted between March-May 2018 in the censused area as a baseline for a cluster randomised trial. An age-stratified random sample of 6,102 individuals were assessed for helminthiasis by Kato-Katz and completed a detailed risk-factor questionnaire. The age-cluster weighted prevalence of any STH infection was 7.8% (95% C.I. 7.0%-8.6%) comprised predominantly of hookworm species and of entirely low-intensity infections. The presence and intensity of infection was significantly higher in men and in adults. Infection was negatively associated with risk factors that included increasing levels of relative household wealth, higher education levels of any adult household member, current school attendance, or recent deworming. In this setting of relatively high coverage of sanitation facilities, there was no association between hookworm and reported access to sanitation, handwashing facilities, or water facilities. These results describe a setting that has reduced the prevalence of STH to a very low level, and confirms many previously recognised risk-factors for infection. Expanding the delivery of anthelmintics to groups where STH infection persist could enable Malawi to move past the objective of elimination of morbidity, and towards the elimination of STH. Trial registration: NCT03014167

Glucose Depletion in the Airway Surface Liquid Is Essential for Sterility of the Airways

Diabetes mellitus predisposes the host to bacterial infections. Moreover, hyperglycemia has been shown to be an independent risk factor for respiratory infections. The luminal surface of airway epithelia is covered by a thin layer of airway surface liquid (ASL) and is normally sterile despite constant exposure to bacteria. The balance between bacterial growth and killing in the airway determines the outcome of exposure to inhaled or aspirated bacteria: infection or sterility. We hypothesized that restriction of carbon sources –including glucose– in the ASL is required for sterility of the lungs. We found that airway epithelia deplete glucose from the ASL via a novel mechanism involving polarized expression of GLUT-1 and GLUT-10, intracellular glucose phosphorylation, and low relative paracellular glucose permeability in well-differentiated cultures of human airway epithelia and in segments of airway epithelia excised from human tracheas. Moreover, we found that increased glucose concentration in the ASL augments growth of P. aeruginosa in vitro and in the lungs of hyperglycemic ob/ob and db/db mice in vivo. In contrast, hyperglycemia had no effect on intrapulmonary bacterial growth of a P. aeruginosa mutant that is unable to utilize glucose as a carbon source. Our data suggest that depletion of glucose in the airway epithelial surface is a novel mechanism for innate immunity. This mechanism is important for sterility of the airways and has implications in hyperglycemia and conditions that result in disruption of the epithelial barrier in the lung

Prognostic indicators and outcomes of hospitalised COVID-19 patients with neurological disease: An individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Neurological COVID-19 disease has been reported widely, but published studies often lack information on neurological outcomes and prognostic risk factors. We aimed to describe the spectrum of neurological disease in hospitalised COVID-19 patients; characterise clinical outcomes; and investigate factors associated with a poor outcome. METHODS: We conducted an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis of hospitalised patients with neurological COVID-19 disease, using standard case definitions. We invited authors of studies from the first pandemic wave, plus clinicians in the Global COVID-Neuro Network with unpublished data, to contribute. We analysed features associated with poor outcome (moderate to severe disability or death, 3 to 6 on the modified Rankin Scale) using multivariable models. RESULTS: We included 83 studies (31 unpublished) providing IPD for 1979 patients with COVID-19 and acute new-onset neurological disease. Encephalopathy (978 [49%] patients) and cerebrovascular events (506 [26%]) were the most common diagnoses. Respiratory and systemic symptoms preceded neurological features in 93% of patients; one third developed neurological disease after hospital admission. A poor outcome was more common in patients with cerebrovascular events (76% [95% CI 67-82]), than encephalopathy (54% [42-65]). Intensive care use was high (38% [35-41]) overall, and also greater in the cerebrovascular patients. In the cerebrovascular, but not encephalopathic patients, risk factors for poor outcome included breathlessness on admission and elevated D-dimer. Overall, 30-day mortality was 30% [27-32]. The hazard of death was comparatively lower for patients in the WHO European region. INTERPRETATION: Neurological COVID-19 disease poses a considerable burden in terms of disease outcomes and use of hospital resources from prolonged intensive care and inpatient admission; preliminary data suggest these may differ according to WHO regions and country income levels. The different risk factors for encephalopathy and stroke suggest different disease mechanisms which may be amenable to intervention, especially in those who develop neurological symptoms after hospital admission

Prognostic indicators and outcomes of hospitalised COVID-19 patients with neurological disease: An individual patient data meta-analysis.

BackgroundNeurological COVID-19 disease has been reported widely, but published studies often lack information on neurological outcomes and prognostic risk factors. We aimed to describe the spectrum of neurological disease in hospitalised COVID-19 patients; characterise clinical outcomes; and investigate factors associated with a poor outcome.MethodsWe conducted an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis of hospitalised patients with neurological COVID-19 disease, using standard case definitions. We invited authors of studies from the first pandemic wave, plus clinicians in the Global COVID-Neuro Network with unpublished data, to contribute. We analysed features associated with poor outcome (moderate to severe disability or death, 3 to 6 on the modified Rankin Scale) using multivariable models.ResultsWe included 83 studies (31 unpublished) providing IPD for 1979 patients with COVID-19 and acute new-onset neurological disease. Encephalopathy (978 [49%] patients) and cerebrovascular events (506 [26%]) were the most common diagnoses. Respiratory and systemic symptoms preceded neurological features in 93% of patients; one third developed neurological disease after hospital admission. A poor outcome was more common in patients with cerebrovascular events (76% [95% CI 67-82]), than encephalopathy (54% [42-65]). Intensive care use was high (38% [35-41]) overall, and also greater in the cerebrovascular patients. In the cerebrovascular, but not encephalopathic patients, risk factors for poor outcome included breathlessness on admission and elevated D-dimer. Overall, 30-day mortality was 30% [27-32]. The hazard of death was comparatively lower for patients in the WHO European region.InterpretationNeurological COVID-19 disease poses a considerable burden in terms of disease outcomes and use of hospital resources from prolonged intensive care and inpatient admission; preliminary data suggest these may differ according to WHO regions and country income levels. The different risk factors for encephalopathy and stroke suggest different disease mechanisms which may be amenable to intervention, especially in those who develop neurological symptoms after hospital admission

Methods and Approaches for Buruli Ulcer Surveillance in Africa: Lessons Learnt and Future Directions.

Over 95% of the global burden of Buruli ulcer disease (BU) caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans occurs in equatorial Africa. National and sub-national programs have implemented various approaches to improve detection and reporting of incident cases over recent decades. Regional incidence rates are currently in decline; however, surveillance targets outlined in 2012 by WHO have been missed and detection bias may contribute to these trends. In light of the new 2030 NTD roadmap and disease-specific targets, BU programs are required to strengthen case detection and begin a transition towards integration with other skin-NTDs. This transition comes with new opportunities to enhance existing BU surveillance systems and develop novel approaches for implementation and evaluation.In this review, we present a breakdown and assessment of the methods and approaches that have been the pillars of BU surveillance systems in Africa: (1) Passive case detection, (2) Data systems, (3) Clinical training, (4) Active case finding, (5) Burden estimation, and (6) Laboratory confirmation pathways. We discuss successes, challenges, and relevant case studies before highlighting opportunities for future development and evaluation including novel data collection tools, risk-based surveillance, and integrated skin-NTD surveillance. We draw on both experience and available literature to critically evaluate methods of BU surveillance in Africa and highlight new approaches to help achieve 2030 roadmap targets

Association between the pharmacological treatment of bipolar disorder and risk of traumatic injuries: A self-controlled case series study

BACKGROUND: Patients with bipolar disorder (BPD) are prone to engage in risk-taking behaviours and self-harm, contributing to higher risk of traumatic injuries requiring medical attention at the emergency room (ER).We hypothesize that pharmacological treatment of BPD could reduce the risk of traumatic injuries by alleviating symptoms but evidence remains unclear. This study aimed to examine the association between pharmacological treatment and the risk of ER admissions due to traumatic injuries. METHODS: Individuals with BPD who received mood stabilizers and/or antipsychotics were identified using a population-based electronic healthcare records database in Hong Kong (2001–2019). A self-controlled case series design was applied to control for time-invariant confounders. RESULTS: A total of 5040 out of 14 021 adults with BPD who received pharmacological treatment and had incident ER admissions due to traumatic injuries from 2001 to 2019 were included. An increased risk of traumatic injuries was found 30 days before treatment [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 4.44 (3.71–5.31), p < 0.0001]. After treatment initiation, the risk remained increased with a smaller magnitude, before returning to baseline [IRR 0.97 (0.88–1.06), p = 0.50] during maintenance treatment. The direct comparison of the risk during treatment to that before and after treatment showed a significant decrease. After treatment cessation, the risk was increased [IRR 1.34 (1.09–1.66), p = 0.006]. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the hypothesis that pharmacological treatment of BPD was associated with a lower risk of ER admissions due to traumatic injuries but an increased risk after treatment cessation. Close monitoring of symptoms relapse is recommended to clinicians and patients if treatment cessation is warranted