When Thinking Leads to Doing: the Relationship Between Fantasy and Reality in Sexual Offending.

This chapter is taken from the following text: Jones, T. & Wilson, D. (2008). Thinking & Doing; Fantasy & Reality: An Analysis of Convicted Paedophiles. In Birch, P., Ireland, C., & Ireland, J. (Eds.) The Assessment, Treatment and Management of Violent and Sexual Offenders, London: Willa

A Buffer Stocks Model for Stabilizing Price of Staple Food with Considering the Expectation of Non Speculative Wholesaler

This paper is a study of price stabilization in the staple food distribution system. All stakeholders experience market risks due to some possibility causes of price volatility. Many models of price stabilization had been developed by employing several approaches such as floor-ceiling prices, buffer funds, export or import taxes, and subsidies. In the previous researches, the models were expanded to increase the purchasing price for producer and decrease the selling price for consumer. Therefore, the policy can influence the losses for non-speculative wholesaler that is reflected by the descending of selling quantity and ascending of the stocks. The objective of this model is not only to keep the expectation of both producer and consumer, but also to protect non-speculative wholesaler from the undesirable result of the stabilization policy. A nonlinear programming model was addressed to determine the instruments of intervention program. Moreover, the result shows that the wholesaler behavior affects the intervention costs. Index Terms Buffer stocks, Price stabilization, Nonlinear programming, Wholesaler behavior

Laser Beam Profiling and Crystallographic Analysis

Lasers and x-rays are widely used in the modern world for studying biomolecules. For the purposes of the physics department, future research requires certainty that lasers have Gaussian profiles, though the lasers used often deviate from this ideal. In this project, we investigate methods to measure and analyze laser beam profiles. We first reviewed the theory of Gaussian beams and their properties. We then measured our laser’s profile using two techniques: a knife-edge method and a cell phone photography method. The first involved moving a razor edge across the beam to measure transmitted light, while the second involved visualizing the profile through photographs. The second part of the project involved x-ray crystallography, a powerful technique for determining the three-dimensional structure of molecules. Crystallography analysis involves growing crystals of the molecule of interest and exposing them to x-rays. By analyzing the diffraction pattern, it is possible to reconstruct the molecule’s electron density and determine its precise atomic coordinates. However, crystallography analysis can be challenging due to the data processing and modeling required to interpret the diffraction data. We compared open-source crystallography software and practiced data analysis using publicly available sample diffraction patterns. In summary, we investigated methods to measure and analyze laser beam profiles, including hands-on techniques and imaging. We also discussed x-ray crystallography, a key technique in studying molecular structures. Our work provides the foundation for future optics and crystallography projects

Can we accurately forecast non-elective bed occupancy and admissions in the NHS?:A time-series MSARIMA analysis of longitudinal data from an NHS Trust

OBJECTIVES: The main objective of the study was to develop more accurate and precise short-term forecasting models for admissions and bed occupancy for an NHS Trust located in Bristol, England. Subforecasts for the medical and surgical specialties, and for different lengths of stay were realised DESIGN: Autoregressive integrated moving average models were specified on a training dataset of daily count data, then tested on a 6-week forecast horizon. Explanatory variables were included in the models: day of the week, holiday days, lagged temperature and precipitation. SETTING: A secondary care hospital in an NHS Trust in South West England. PARTICIPANTS: Hospital admissions between September 2016 and March 2020, comprising 1291 days. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The accuracy of the forecasts was assessed through standard measures, as well as compared with the actual data using accuracy thresholds of 10% and 20% of the mean number of admissions or occupied beds. RESULTS: The overall Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) admissions forecast was compared with the Trust’s forecast, and found to be more accurate, namely, being closer to the actual value 95.6% of the time. Furthermore, it was more precise than the Trust’s. The subforecasts, as well as those for bed occupancy, tended to be less accurate compared with the overall forecasts. All of the explanatory variables improved the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: ARIMA models can forecast non-elective admissions in an NHS Trust accurately on a 6-week horizon, which is an improvement on the current predictive modelling in the Trust. These models can be readily applied to other contexts, improving patient flow

Spatial patterns in the oxygen isotope composition of daily rainfall in the British Isles

Understanding the modern day relationship between climate and the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18OP) is crucial for obtaining rigorous palaeoclimate reconstructions from a variety of archives. To date, the majority of empirical studies into the meteorological controls over δ18OP rely upon daily, event scale, or monthly time series from individual locations, resulting in uncertainties concerning the representativeness of statistical models and the mechanisms behind those relationships. Here, we take an alternative approach by analysing daily patterns in δ18OP from multiple stations across the British Isles (n = 10–70 stations). We use these data to examine the spatial and seasonal heterogeneity of regression statistics between δ18OP and common predictors (temperature, precipitation amount and the North Atlantic Oscillation index; NAO). Temperature and NAO are poor predictors of daily δ18OP in the British Isles, exhibiting weak and/or inconsistent effects both spatially and between seasons. By contrast δ18OP and rainfall amount consistently correlate at most locations, and for all months analysed, with spatial and temporal variability in the regression coefficients. The maps also allow comparison with daily synoptic weather types, and suggest characteristic δ18OP patterns, particularly associated with Cylonic Lamb Weather Types. Mapping daily δ18OP across the British Isles therefore provides a more coherent picture of the patterns in δ18OP, which will ultimately lead to a better understanding of the climatic controls. These observations are another step forward towards developing a more detailed, mechanistic framework for interpreting stable isotopes in rainfall as a palaeoclimate and hydrological tracer

Does milk cause constipation? a crossover dietary trial

The aims of this study were to: (1) determine whether replacement of cow’s milk protein with soy resolves Chronic Functional Constipation (CFC); and (2) investigate the effects of cow’s milk β casein A1 and cow’s milk β casein A2 on CFC. Children diagnosed with CFC were recruited to one of two crossover trials: Trial 1 compared the effects of cow’s milk and soy milk; Trial 2 compared the effects of cow’s milk β casein A1 and cow’s milk β casein A2. Resolution of constipation was defined as greater than eight bowel motions during a two week intervention. Thirteen children (18 to 144 months) participated in Trial 1 (6 boys, 7 girls). Nine participants who completed the soy epoch all experienced resolution (p < 0.05). Thirty-nine children (21 to 144 months) participated in Trial 2 (25 boys, 14 girls). Resolution of constipation was highest during the washout epoch, 81%; followed by cow’s milk β casein A2, 79%; and cow’s milk β casein A1, 57%; however, the proportions did not differ statistically. The results of Trial 1 demonstrate an association between CFC and cow’s milk consumption but Trial 2 failed to show an effect from type of casein. Some other component in cow’s milk common to both A1 and A2 milk may be causing a problem in these susceptible children

Two-dimensional core–shell donor–acceptor assemblies at metal–organic interfaces promoted by surface-mediated charge transfer

Organic charge transfer (CT) complexes obtained by combining molecular electron donors and acceptors have attracted much interest due to their potential applications in organic opto-electronic devices. In order to work, these systems must have an electronic matching – the highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) of the donor must couple with the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (LUMO) of the acceptor – and a structural matching, so as to allow direct intermolecular CT. Here it is shown that, when molecules are adsorbed on a metal surface, novel molecular organizations driven by surface-mediated CT can appear that have no counterpart in condensed phase non-covalent assemblies of donor and acceptor molecules. By means of scanning tunneling microscopy and spectroscopy it is demonstrated that the electronic and self-assembly properties of an electron acceptor molecule can change dramatically in the presence of an additional molecular species with marked electron donor character, leading to the formation of unprecedented core–shell assemblies. DFT and classical force-field simulations reveal that this is a consequence of charge transfer from the donor to the acceptor molecules mediated by the metallic substrate

Ordered growth of vanadyl phthalocyanine (VOPc) on an iron phthalocyanine (FePc) monolayer

The growth and characterisation of a non-planar phthalocyanine (Vanadyl Phthalocyanine, VOPc) on a complete monolayer (ML) of a planar phthalocyanine (Iron (II) Phthalocyanine, FePc) on an Au (111) surface, has been investigated using ultra-high vacuum (UHV) scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM) and low energy electron diffraction (LEED). The surface mesh of the initial FePc monolayer has been determined and shown to correspond to an incommensurate overlayer, not commensurate as previously reported. Ordered islands of VOPc, with (1x1) epitaxy, grow on the FePc layer at submonolayer coverages. The individual VOPc molecules occupy sites directly atop the underlying FePc molecules, indicating that significant intermolecular bonding must occur. It is proposed that this interaction implies that the V=O points down into the surface, allowing a Fe-O bond to form. The detailed appearance of the STM images of the VOPc molecules is consistent with previous studies in other VOPc growth studies in which this molecular orientation has been proposed

Growth and properties of GaSbBi alloys

Molecular-beam epitaxy has been used to grow GaSb 1− x Bi x alloys with x up to 0.05. The Bi content, lattice expansion, and film thickness were determined by Rutherford backscattering and x-ray diffraction, which also indicate high crystallinity and that >98% of the Bi atoms are substitutional. The observed Bi-induced lattice dilation is consistent with density functional theory calculations. Optical absorption measurements and valence band anticrossing modeling indicate that the room temperature band gap varies from 720 meV for GaSb to 540 meV for GaSb 0.95Bi0.05, corresponding to a reduction of 36 meV/%Bi or 210 meV per 0.01 Å change in lattice constant

Benefits of robotic cystectomy with intracorporeal diversion for patients with low cardiorespiratory fitness: a prospective cohort study

Background: Patients undergoing radical cystectomy have associated comorbidities resulting in reduced cardiorespiratory fitness. Preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) measures including anaerobic threshold (AT) can predict major adverse events (MAE) and hospital length of stay (LOS) for patients undergoing open and robotic cystectomy with extracorporeal diversion. Our objective was to determine the relationship between CPET measures and outcome in patients undergoing robotic radical cystectomy and intracorporeal diversion (intracorporeal robotic assisted radical cystectomy [iRARC]). Methods: A single institution prospective cohort study in patients undergoing iRARC for muscle invasive and high-grade bladder cancer. Inclusion: patients undergoing standardised CPET before iRARC. Exclusions: patients not consenting to data collection. Data on CPET measures (AT, ventilatory equivalent for carbon dioxide [VE/VCO2] at AT, peak oxygen uptake [VO2]), and patient demographics prospectively collected. Outcome measurements included hospital LOS; 30-day MAE and 90-day mortality data, which were prospectively recorded. Descriptive and regression analyses were used to assess whether CPET measures were associated with or predicted outcomes. Results: From June 2011 to March 2015, 128 patients underwent radical cystectomy (open cystectomy, n = 17; iRARC, n = 111). A total of 82 patients who underwent iRARC and CPET and consented to participation were included. Median (interquartile range): age = 65 (58–73); body mass index = 27 (23–30); AT = 10.0 (9–11), Peak VO2 = 15.0 (13–18.5), VE/VCO2 (AT) = 33.0 (30–38). 30-day MAE = 14/111 (12.6%): death = 2, multiorgan failure = 2, abscess = 2, gastrointestinal = 2, renal = 6; 90-day mortality = 3/111 (2.7%). AT, peak VO2, and VE/VCO2 (at AT) were not significant predictors of 30-day MAE or LOS. The results are limited by the absence of control group undergoing open surgery. Conclusions: Poor cardiorespiratory fitness does not predict increased hospital LOS or MAEs in patients undergoing iRARC. Overall, MAE and LOS comparable with other series