Simulating the impact on health of internalising the cost of carbon in food prices combined with a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages

Rising greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) have implications for health and up to 30 % of emissions globally are thought to arise from agriculture. Synergies exist between diets low in GHGEs and health however some foods have the opposite relationship, such as sugar production being a relatively low source of GHGEs. In order to address this and to further characterise a healthy sustainable diet, we model the effect on UK non-communicable disease mortality and GHGEs of internalising the social cost of carbon into the price of food alongside a 20 % tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). Developing previously published work, we simulate four tax scenarios: (A) a GHGEs tax of £2.86/tonne of CO2 equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product on all products with emissions greater than the mean across all food groups (0.36 kgCO2e/100 g); (B) scenario A but with subsidies on foods with emissions lower than 0.36 kgCO2e/100 g such that the effect is revenue neutral; (C) scenario A but with a 20 % sales tax on SSBs; (D) scenario B but with a 20 % sales tax on SSBs. An almost ideal demand system is used to estimate price elasticities and a comparative risk assessment model is used to estimate changes to non-communicable disease mortality. We estimate that scenario A would lead to 300 deaths delayed or averted, 18,900 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs, and £3.0 billion tax revenue; scenario B, 90 deaths delayed or averted and 17,100 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs; scenario C, 1,200 deaths delayed or averted, 18,500 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs, and £3.4 billion revenue; and scenario D, 2,000 deaths delayed or averted and 16,500 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs. Deaths averted are mainly due to increased fibre and reduced fat consumption; a SSB tax reduces SSB and sugar consumption. Incorporating the social cost of carbon into the price of food has the potential to improve health, reduce GHGEs, and raise revenue. The simple addition of a tax on SSBs can mitigate negative health consequences arising from sugar being low in GHGEs. Further conflicts remain, including increased consumption of unhealthy foods such as cakes and nutrients such as salt

The distributional and nutritional impacts and mitigation potential of emission-based food taxes in the UK

Agriculture and food production are responsible for a substantial proportion of greenhouse gas emissions. An emission based food tax has been proposed as one option to reduce food related emissions. This study introduces a method to measure the impacts of emission based food taxes at a household level which involves the use of data augmentation to account for the fact that the data record purchases and not consumption. The method is applied to determine the distributional and nutritional impacts of an emission based food tax across socio-economic classes in the UK. We find that a tax of £2.841/tCO2e on all foods would reduce food related emissions by 6.3% and a tax on foods with above average levels of emissions would reduce emissions by 4.3%. The tax burden falls disproportionately on households in the lowest socio-economic class because they tend to spend a larger proportion of their food expenditure on emission intensive foods and because they buy cheaper products and therefore experience relatively larger price increases

Strong ecological but weak evolutionary effects of elevated CO2 on a recombinant inbred population of Arabidopsis thaliana

Summary • Increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration have an impact on plant communities by influencing plant growth and morphology, species interactions, and ecosystem processes. These ecological effects may be accompanied by evolutionary change if elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) alters patterns of natural selection or expression of genetic variation. • Here, a statistically powerful quantitative genetic experiment and manipulations of CO 2 concentrations in a field setting were used to investigate how eCO 2 impacts patterns of selection on ecologically important traits in Arabidopsis thaliana ; heritabilities, which influence the rate of response to selection; and genetic covariances between traits, which may constrain responses to selection. • CO 2 had strong phenotypic effects; plants grown in eCO 2 were taller and produced more biomass and fruits. Also, significant directional selection was observed on many traits and significant genetic variation was observed for all traits. However, no evolutionary effect of eCO 2 was detected; patterns of selection, heritabilities and genetic correlations corresponded closely in ambient and elevated CO 2 environments. • The data suggest that patterns of natural selection and the quantitative genetic parameters of this A. thaliana population are robust to increases in CO 2 concentration and that responses to eCO 2 will be primarily ecological

One-year mortality after hospital admission as an indicator of palliative care need: A retrospective cohort study

Background. Globally there is increasing awareness of the need for end-of-life care and palliative care in hospitalised patients who are in their final year of life. Limited data are available on palliative care requirements in low- and middle-income countries, hindering the design and implementation of effective policies and health services for these patients.Objectives. To determine the proportion of patients who die within 1 year of their date of admission to public hospitals in South Africa (SA), as a proxy for palliative care need in SA.Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study using record linkage of admission and mortality data. The setting was 46 acute-care public hospitals in Western Cape Province, SA.Results. Of 10 761 patients (median (interquartile range (IQR)) age 44 (31 - 60) years) admitted to the 46 hospitals over a 2-week period in March 2012, 1 570 (14.6%) died within 1 year, the majority within the first 3 months. Mortality rose steeply with age. The median (IQR) age of death was 57.5 (45 - 70) years. A greater proportion of patients admitted to medical beds died within 1 year (21.3%) compared with those admitted to surgical beds (7.7%).Conclusions. Despite a median age <60 years at admission, a substantial percentage of patients admitted to public sector hospitals in SA are in the final year of their lives. This finding should be seen in the context of SA’s high communicable and non-communicable disease burden and resource-limited public health system, and highlights the need for policy development, planning and implementation of end-of-life and palliative care strategies for hospitals and patients.

Discordant Population Structure Among Rhizobium Divided Genomes and Their Legume Hosts

Symbiosis often occurs between partners with distinct life history characteristics and dispersal mechanisms. Many bacterial symbionts have genomes comprising multiple replicons with distinct rates of evolution and horizontal transmission. Such differences might drive differences in population structure between hosts and symbionts and among the elements of the divided genomes of bacterial symbionts. These differences might, in turn, shape the evolution of symbiotic interactions and bacterial evolution. Here we use whole genome resequencing of a hierarchically structured sample of 191 strains of Sinorhizobium meliloti collected from 21 locations in southern Europe to characterize population structures of this bacterial symbiont, which forms a root nodule symbiosis with the host plant Medicago truncatula. S. meliloti genomes showed high local (within-site) variation and little isolation by distance. This was particularly true for the two symbiosis elements, pSymA and pSymB, which have population structures that are similar to each other, but distinct from both the bacterial chromosome and the host plant. Given limited recombination on the chromosome, compared to the symbiosis elements, distinct population structures may result from differences in effective gene flow. Alternatively, positive or purifying selection, with little recombination, may explain distinct geographical patterns at the chromosome. Discordant population structure between hosts and symbionts indicates that geographically and genetically distinct host populations in different parts of the range might interact with genetically similar symbionts, potentially minimizing local specialization

Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

Objective To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK. Design Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting United Kingdom. Population Adults aged 16 and over. Intervention A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks. Main outcome measures The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ≥25) and obese (≥30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated. Results A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180 000 (110 000 to 247 000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285 000 (201 000 to 364 000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%). Conclusions A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180 000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults

Pervasive gene content variation and copy number variation in maize and its undomesticated progenitor

Individuals of the same species are generally thought to have very similar genomes. However, there is growing evidence that structural variation in the form of copy number variation (CNV) and presence-absence variation (PAV) can lead to variation in the genome content of individuals within a species. Array comparative genomic hybridization (CGH) was used to compare gene content and copy number variation among 19 diverse maize inbreds and 14 genotypes of the wild ancestor of maize, teosinte. We identified 479 genes exhibiting higher copy number in some genotypes (UpCNV) and 3410 genes that have either fewer copies or are missing in the genome of at least one genotype relative to B73 (DownCNV/PAV). Many of these DownCNV/PAV are examples of genes present in B73, but missing from other genotypes. Over 70% of the CNV/PAV examples are identified in multiple genotypes, and the majority of events are observed in both maize and teosinte, suggesting that these variants predate domestication and that there is not strong selection acting against them. Many of the genes affected by CNV/PAV are either maize specific (thus possible annotation artifacts) or members of large gene families, suggesting that the gene loss can be tolerated through buffering by redundant functions encoded elsewhere in the genome. While this structural variation may not result in major qualitative variation due to genetic buffering, it may significantly contribute to quantitative variation

Direct and indirect effects of CO2, nitrogen, and community diversity on plant–enemy interactions

Resource abundance and plant diversity are two predominant factors hypothesized to influence the amount of damage plants receive from natural enemies. Many impacts of these environmental variables on plant damage are likely indirect and result because both resource availability and diversity can influence plant traits associated with attractiveness to herbivores or susceptibility to pathogens. We used a long-term, manipulative field experiment to investigate how carbon dioxide (CO2) enrichment, nitrogen (N) fertilization, and plant community diversity affect plant traits and the amount of herbivore and pathogen damage experienced by the common prairie legume Lespedeza capitata. We detected little evidence that CO2 or N affected plant traits; however, plants growing in high-diversity treatments (polycultures) were taller, were less pubescent, and produced thinner leaves (higher specific leaf area). Interestingly, we also detected little evidence that CO2 or N affect damage. Plants growing in polycultures compared to monocultures, however, experienced a fivefold increase in damage from generalist herbivores, 64% less damage from specialist herbivores, and 91% less damage from pathogens. Moreover, within diversity treatments, damage by generalist herbivores was negatively correlated with pubescence and often was positively correlated with plant height, while damage by specialist herbivores typically was positively correlated with pubescence and negatively associated with height. These patterns are consistent with changes in plant traits driving differences in herbivory between diversity treatments. In contrast, changes in measured plant traits did not explain the difference in disease incidence between monocultures and polycultures. In summary, our data provide little evidence that CO2 or N supply alter damage from natural enemies. By contrast, plants grown in monocultures experienced greater specialist herbivore and pathogen damage but less generalist herbivore damage than plants grown in diverse communities. Part of this diversity effect was mediated by changes in plant traits, many of which likely are plastic responses to diversity treatments, but some of which may be the result of evolutionary changes in response to these long-term experimental manipulations

Combining GWAS and Population Genomic Analyses to Characterize Coevolution in a Legume-rhizobia Symbiosis

The mutualism between legumes and rhizobia is clearly the product of past coevolution. However, the nature of ongoing evolution between these partners is less clear. To characterize the nature of recent coevolution between legumes and rhizobia, we used population genomic analysis to characterize selection on functionally annotated symbiosis genes as well as on symbiosis gene candidates identified through a two-species association analysis. For the association analysis, we inoculated each of 202 accessions of the legume host Medicago truncatula with a community of 88 Sinorhizobia (Ensifer) meliloti strains. Multistrain inoculation, which better reflects the ecological reality of rhizobial selection in nature than single-strain inoculation, allows strains to compete for nodulation opportunities and host resources and for hosts to preferentially form nodules and provide resources to some strains. We found extensive host by symbiont, that is, genotype-by-genotype, effects on rhizobial fitness and some annotated rhizobial genes bear signatures of recent positive selection. However, neither genes responsible for this variation nor annotated host symbiosis genes are enriched for signatures of either positive or balancing selection. This result suggests that stabilizing selection dominates selection acting on symbiotic traits and that variation in these traits is under mutation-selection balance. Consistent with the lack of positive selection acting on host genes, we found that among-host variation in growth was similar whether plants were grown with rhizobia or N-fertilizer, suggesting that the symbiosis may not be a major driver of variation in plant growth in multistrain contexts

The improving outcomes in intermittent exotropia study: outcomes at 2 years after diagnosis in an observational cohort

Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate current patterns of management and outcomes of intermittent distance exotropia [X(T)] in the UK. Methods: This was an observational cohort study which recruited 460 children aged < 12 years with previously untreated X(T). Eligible subjects were enrolled from 26 UK hospital ophthalmology clinics between May 2005 and December 2006. Over a 2-year period of follow-up, clinical data were prospectively recorded at standard intervals from enrolment. Data collected included angle, near stereoacuity, visual acuity, control of X(T) measured with the Newcastle Control Score (NCS), and treatment. The main outcome measures were change in clinical outcomes (angle, stereoacuity, visual acuity and NCS) in treated and untreated X(T), 2 years from enrolment (or, where applicable, 6 months after surgery). Change over time was tested using the chi-square test for categorical, Wilcoxon test for non-parametric and paired-samples t-test for parametric data. Results: At follow-up, data were available for 371 children (81% of the original cohort). Of these: 53% (195) had no treatment; 17% (63) had treatment for reduced visual acuity only (pure refractive error and amblyopia); 13% (50) had non surgical treatment for control (spectacle lenses, occlusion, prisms, exercises) and 17% (63) had surgery. Only 0.5% (2/371) children developed constant exotropia. The surgically treated group was the only group with clinically significant improvements in angle or NCS. However, 8% (5) of those treated surgically required second procedures for overcorrection within 6 months of the initial procedure and at 6-month follow-up 21% (13) were overcorrected. Conclusions: Many children in the UK with X(T) receive active monitoring only. Deterioration to constant exotropia, with or without treatment, is rare. Surgery appears effective in improving angle of X(T) and NCS, but rates of overcorrection are high