Development of Evidence Based Surveillance Intervals following Radiofrequency Ablation of Barrett's Esophagus

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Barrett's esophagus (BE) recurs in 25% or more of patients treated successfully with radiofrequency ablation (RFA), so surveillance endoscopy is recommended after complete eradication of intestinal metaplasia (CEIM). The frequency of surveillance is informed only by expert opinion. We aimed to model the incidence of neoplastic recurrence, validate the model in an independent cohort, and propose evidence-based surveillance intervals. METHODS: We collected data from the United States Radiofrequency Ablation Registry (US RFA, 2004-2013) and the United Kingdom National Halo Registry (UK NHR, 2007-2015) to build and validate models to predict the incidence of neoplasia recurrence following initially successful RFA. We developed 3 categories of risk and modeled intervals to yield 0.1% risk of recurrence with invasive adenocarcinoma. We fit Cox proportional hazards models assessing discrimination by C statistic and 95% confidence limits (CL). RESULTS: The incidence of neoplastic recurrence was associated with most severe histologic grade prior to CEIM, age, endoscopic mucosal resection, sex, and baseline BE segment length. In multivariate analysis, a model based solely on most severe pre-CEIM histology predictied neoplastic recurrence with a C statistic 0.892 (95% CL, 0.863-0.921) in the US RFA registry. This model also performed well when we used data from the UK NHR. Our model divided patients into 3 risk groups based on baseline histologic grade: non-dysplastic BE or indefinite-for-dysplasia, low-grade dysplasia, and high-grade dysplasia or intramucosal adenocarcinoma. For patients with low-grade dysplasia, we propose surveillance endoscopy at 1 and 3 years after CEIM; for patients with high-grade dysplasia or intramucosal adenocarcinoma we propose surveillance endoscopy at 0.25, 0.5, and 1 year after CEIM, then annually. CONCLUSION: In analyses of data from the US RFA and UK NHR for BE, a much-attenuated schedule of surveillance endoscopy would provide protection from invasive adenocarcinoma. Adherence to the recommended surveillance intervals could decrease the number of endoscopies performed yet identify unresectable cancers at rates less than 1/1000 endoscopies

The feasibility of an exercise intervention in males at risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma: a randomized controlled trial

Objective: To investigate the feasibility and safety of a 24-week exercise intervention, compared to control, in males with Barrett's oesophagus, and to estimate the effect of the intervention, compared to control, on risk factors associated with oesophageal adenocarcinoma development. Methods: A randomized controlled trial of an exercise intervention (60 minutes moderate-intensity aerobic and resistance exercise five days/week over 24 weeks; one supervised and four unsupervised sessions) versus attention control (45 minutes stretching five days/week over 24 weeks; one supervised and four unsupervised sessions) in inactive, overweight/obese (25.0-34.9 kg/m2) males with Barrett's oesophagus, aged 18-70 years. Primary outcomes were obesity-associated hormones relevant to oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk (circulating concentrations of leptin, adiponectin, interleukin-6, tumour necrosis factor-alpha, C-reactive protein, and insulin resistance HOMA). Secondary outcomes included waist circumference, body composition, fitness, strength and gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms. Outcomes were measured at baseline and 24-weeks. Intervention effects were analysed using generalised linear models, adjusting for baseline value. Results: Recruitment was difficult in this population with a total of 33 participants recruited (target sample size: n = 80); 97% retention at 24-weeks. Adherence to the exercise protocol was moderate. No serious adverse events were reported. A statistically significant intervention effect (exercise minus control) was observed for waist circumference (-4.5 95%CI -7.5, -1.4 cm; p < 0.01). Effects on primary outcomes were not statistically significant. Conclusion: This small, exploratory trial provides important information to inform future trial development including recruitment rates and estimates of effect sizes on outcomes related to oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk. Future trials should investigate a combined dietary and exercise intervention to achieve greater weight loss in this population and relax inclusion criteria to maximize recruitment. Trial Registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12609000401257. © 2015 Winzer et al

Reduced risk of Barrett’s esophagus in statin users: case–control study and meta-analysis

Background: Use of statins has been associated with a reduced incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma in population-based studies. However there are few studies examining statin use and the development of Barrett’s esophagus. Aim: The purpose of this study was to examine the association between statin use and the presence of Barrett’s esophagus in patients having their first gastroscopy. Methods: We have performed a case–control study comparing statin use between patients with, and without, an incident diagnosis of non-dysplastic Barrett’s esophagus. Male Barrett’s cases (134) were compared to 268 male age-matched controls in each of two control groups (erosive gastro-esophageal reflux and dyspepsia without significant upper gastrointestinal disease). Risk factor and drug exposure were established using standardised interviews. Logistic regression was used to compare statin exposure and correct for confounding factors. We performed a meta-analysis pooling our results with three other case–control studies. Results: Regular statin use was associated with a significantly lower incidence of Barrett’s esophagus compared to the combined control groups [adjusted OR 0.62 (95 % confidence intervals 0.37–0.93)]. This effect was more marked in combined statin plus aspirin users [adjusted OR 0.43 (95 % CI 0.21–0.89)]. The inverse association between statin or statin plus aspirin use and risk of Barrett’s was significantly greater with longer duration of use. Meta-analysis of pooled data (1098 Barrett’s, 2085 controls) showed that statin use was significantly associated with a reduced risk of Barrett’s esophagus [pooled adjusted OR 0.63 (95 % CI 0.51–0.77)]. Conclusions: Statin use is associated with a reduced incidence of a new diagnosis of Barrett’s esophagus

Interactions Between Genetic Variants and Environmental Factors Affect Risk of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma and Barrett’s Esophagus

Background & Aims: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 20 susceptibility loci for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) and Barrett’s esophagus (BE). However, variants in these loci account for a small fraction of cases of EA and BE. Genetic factors might interact with environmental factors to affect risk of EA and BE. We aimed to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that may modify the associations of body mass index (BMI), smoking, and gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), with risks of EA and BE. Methods: We collected data on single BMI measurements, smoking status, and symptoms of GERD from 2284 patients with EA, 3104 patients with BE, and 2182 healthy individuals (controls) participating in the Barrett’s and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium GWAS, the UK Barrett’s Esophagus Gene Study, and the UK Stomach and Oesophageal Cancer Study. We analyzed 993,501 SNPs in DNA samples of all study subjects. We used standard case–control logistic regression to test for gene-environment interactions. Results: For EA, rs13429103 at chromosome 2p25.1, near the RNF144A-LOC339788 gene, showed a borderline significant interaction with smoking status (P = 2.18×10-7). Ever smoking was associated with an almost 12-fold increase in risk of EA among individuals with rs13429103-AA genotype (odds ratio=11.82; 95% CI, 4.03–34.67). Three SNPs (rs12465911, rs2341926, rs13396805) at chromosome 2q23.3, near the RND3-RBM43 gene, interacted with GERD symptoms (P = 1.70×10-7, P = 1.83×10-7, and P = 3.58×10-7, respectively) to affect risk of EA. For BE, rs491603 at chromosome 1p34.3, near the EIF2C3 gene, and rs11631094 at chromosome 15q14, at the SLC12A6 gene, interacted with BMI (P = 4.44×10-7) and pack-years of smoking history (P = 2.82×10-7), respectively. Conclusion: The associations of BMI, smoking, and GERD symptoms with risks of EA and BE appear to vary with SNPs at chromosomes 1, 2, and 15. Validation of these suggestive interactions is warranted

Differences in Prediagnostic Serum Metabolomic and Lipidomic Profiles Between Cirrhosis Patients with and without Incident Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hannah Powell,1,* Cristian Coarfa,2– 4,* Elisa Ruiz-Echartea,2– 4,* Sandra L Grimm,2– 4 Omar Najjar,1 Bing Yu,5 Luis Olivares,6 Michael E Scheurer,6 Christie Ballantyne,1 Abeer Alsarraj,1 Emad Mohamed Salem,1 Aaron P Thrift,1,2,7 Hashem B El Serag,1,2 Salma Kaochar1,2,4 1Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA; 2Dan L Duncan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA; 3Center for Precision Environmental Health, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA; 4Department of Molecular and Cellular Biology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA; 5Department of Epidemiology, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX, USA; 6Department of Pediatrics, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA; 7Section of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Salma Kaochar; Hashem B El Serag, Email [email protected]; [email protected]: Early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is crucial for improving patient outcomes, but we lack robust clinical biomarkers. This study aimed to identify a metabolite and/or lipid panel for early HCC detection.Methods: We developed a high-resolution liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS)-based profiling platform and evaluated differences in the global metabolome and lipidome between 28 pre-diagnostic serum samples from patients with cirrhosis who subsequently developed HCC (cases) and 30 samples from patients with cirrhosis and no HCC (controls). We linked differentially expressed metabolites and lipids to their associated genes, proteins, and transcriptomic signatures in publicly available datasets. We used machine learning models to identify a minimal panel to distinguish between cases and controls.Results: Among cases compared with controls, 124 metabolites and 246 lipids were upregulated, while 208 metabolites and 73 lipids were downregulated. The top upregulated metabolites were glycoursodeoxycholic acid, 5-methyltetrahydrofolic acid, octanoyl-coenzyme A, and glycocholic acid. Elevated lipids comprised glycerol lipids, cardiolipin, and phosphatidylethanolamine, whereas suppressed lipids included oxidized phosphatidylcholine and lysophospholipids. There was an overlap between differentially expressed metabolites and lipids and previously published transcriptomic signatures, illustrating an association with liver disease severity. A panel of 12 metabolites that distinguished between cases and controls with an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.98 for the support vector machine (interquartile range, 0.9– 1).Conclusion: Using prediagnostic serum samples, we identified a promising metabolites panel that accurately identifies patients with cirrhosis who progressed to HCC. Further validation of this panel is required.Keywords: lipid dysregulation, biomarker, fatty acids, machine learnin

Behaviour change strategies for reducing blood pressure-related disease burden: findings from a global implementation research programme.

The Global Alliance for Chronic Diseases comprises the majority of the world's public research funding agencies. It is focussed on implementation research to tackle the burden of chronic diseases in low- and middle-income countries and amongst vulnerable populations in high-income countries. In its inaugural research call, 15 projects were funded, focussing on lowering blood pressure-related disease burden. In this study, we describe a reflexive mapping exercise to identify the behaviour change strategies undertaken in each of these projects.Using the Behaviour Change Wheel framework, each team rated the capability, opportunity and motivation of the various actors who were integral to each project (e.g. community members, non-physician health workers and doctors in projects focussed on service delivery). Teams then mapped the interventions they were implementing and determined the principal policy categories in which those interventions were operating. Guidance was provided on the use of Behaviour Change Wheel to support consistency in responses across teams. Ratings were iteratively discussed and refined at several group meetings.There was marked variation in the perceived capabilities, opportunities and motivation of the various actors who were being targeted for behaviour change strategies. Despite this variation, there was a high degree of synergy in interventions functions with most teams utilising complex interventions involving education, training, enablement, environmental restructuring and persuasion oriented strategies. Similar policy categories were also targeted across teams particularly in the areas of guidelines, communication/marketing and service provision with few teams focussing on fiscal measures, regulation and legislation.The large variation in preparedness to change behaviour amongst the principal actors across these projects suggests that the interventions themselves will be variably taken up, despite the similarity in approaches taken. The findings highlight the importance of contextual factors in driving success and failure of research programmes. Forthcoming outcome and process evaluations from each project will build on this exploratory work and provide a greater understanding of factors that might influence scale-up of intervention strategies

A Multiscale Model Evaluates Screening for Neoplasia in Barrett's Esophagus

National Cancer Institute grants U01 CA152926 (CISNET) (to EGL, JJ, and WDH) and U01 CA182940 (BG-U01) (to EGL and WDH). National Science Foundation (www.nsf.gov) under grant no. DGE-0718124 (to KC

Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016

BACKGROUND: The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate. RESULTS: The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation. CONCLUSIONS: In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.)

Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders. Methods We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach. Findings Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable). Interpretation Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies