Time-varying covariates and semi-parametric regression in capture-recapture: an adaptive spline approach

Advances in capture–recapture methodology have allowed the inclusion of continuous, time-dependent individual-covariates as predictors of survival and capture probabilities. The problem posed by these covariates is that they are only observed for an individual when that individual is captured. One solution is to assume a model of the covariate which defines the distribution of unobserved values, conditional on the observed values, and apply Bayesian methods to compute parameter estimates and to test the covariate’s effect. Previous applications of this approach have modeled the survival probability as a linear function of the covariate on some scale (e.g. identity or logistic). In some applications a linear function may not adequately describe the true relationship. Here we incorporate semi-parametric regression to allow for more flexibility in the relationship between the covariate and the survival probabilities of the Cormack– Jolly–Seber model. A fully Bayesian, adaptive algorithm is used to model the relationship with splines, in which the complexity of the relationship is governed by the number and location of the knots in the spline. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is implemented to explore splines with different knot configurations, and model averaging is used to compute the final estimates of the survival probabilities. The method is applied to a simulated data set and to data collected through the Dutch Constant Effort Sites ringing project to study the survival of reed warblers (Acrocephalus scirpaceus) as a function of condition.postprin

Viscous placebo and carbohydrate breakfasts similarly decrease appetite and increase resistance exercise performance compared to a control breakfast in trained males

Given the common view that pre-exercise nutrition/breakfast is important for performance, the present study investigated whether breakfast influences resistance exercise performance via a physiological or psychological effect. Twenty-two resistance trained, breakfast-consuming men completed three experimental trials, consuming water-only (WAT), or semi-solid breakfasts containing 0 g/kg (PLA) or 1.5 g/kg (CHO) maltodextrin. PLA and CHO meals contained xanthan gum and low-energy flavouring (~29 kcal) and subjects were told both ‘contained energy’. Two hours post-meal, subjects completed 4 sets of back squat and bench press to failure at 90% 10 repetition maximum. Blood samples were taken pre-meal, 45 min and 105 min post-meal to measure serum/plasma glucose, insulin, ghrelin, GLP-1 and PYY concentrations. Subjective hunger/fullness were also measured. Total back squat repetitions were greater in CHO (44 (SD 10) repetitions) and PLA (43 ± 10 repetitions) than WAT (38 (SD 10) repetitions; P < 0.001). Total bench press repetitions were similar between trials (WAT 37 (SD 7) repetitions; CHO 39 ± 7 repetitions; PLA 38 (SD 7) repetitions; P = 0.130). Performance was similar between CHO and PLA trials. Hunger was suppressed and fullness increased similarly in PLA and CHO, relative to WAT (P < 0.001). During CHO, plasma glucose was elevated at 45 min (P < 0.05), whilst serum insulin was elevated (P < 0.05) and plasma ghrelin supressed at 45 and 105 min (P < 0.05). These results suggest that breakfast/pre-exercise nutrition enhances resistance exercise performance via a psychological effect, although a potential mediating role of hunger cannot be discounted

Designing theoretically-informed implementation interventions

Clinical and health services research is continually producing new findings that may contribute to effective and efficient patient care. However, the transfer of research findings into practice is unpredictable and can be a slow and haphazard process. Ideally, the choice of implementation strategies would be based upon evidence from randomised controlled trials or systematic reviews of a given implementation strategy. Unfortunately, reviews of implementation strategies consistently report effectiveness some, but not all of the time; possible causes of this variation are seldom reported or measured by the investigators in the original studies. Thus, any attempts to extrapolate from study settings to the real world are hampered by a lack of understanding of the effects of key elements of individuals, interventions, and the settings in which they were trialled. The explicit use of theory offers a way of addressing these issues and has a number of advantages, such as providing: a generalisable framework within which to represent the dimensions that implementation studies address, a process by which to inform the development and delivery of interventions, a guide when evaluating, and a way to allow for an exploration of potential causal mechanisms. However, the use of theory in designing implementation interventions is methodologically challenging for a number of reasons, including choosing between theories and faithfully translating theoretical constructs into interventions. The explicit use of theory offers potential advantages in terms of facilitating a better understanding of the generalisability and replicability of implementation interventions. However, this is a relatively unexplored methodological area

Total ankle replacement versus arthrodesis (TARVA): protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Total ankle replacement (TAR) or ankle arthrodesis (fusion) is the main surgical treatments for end-stage ankle osteoarthritis (OA). The popularity of ankle replacement is increasing while ankle fusion rates remain static. Both treatments have efficacy but to date all studies comparing the 2 have been observational without randomisation, and there are no published guidelines as to the most appropriate management. The TAR versus arthrodesis (TARVA) trial aims to compare the clinical and cost-effectiveness of TAR against ankle arthrodesis in the treatment of end-stage ankle OA in patients aged 50-85 years. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: TARVA is a multicentre randomised controlled trial that will randomise 328 patients aged 50-85 years with end-stage ankle arthritis. The 2 arms of the study will be TAR or ankle arthrodesis with 164 patients in each group. Up to 16 UK centres will participate. Patients will have clinical assessments and complete questionnaires before their operation and at 6, 12, 26 and 52 weeks after surgery. The primary clinical outcome of the study is a validated patient-reported outcome measure, the Manchester Oxford foot questionnaire, captured preoperatively and 12 months after surgery. Secondary outcomes include quality-of-life scores, complications, revision, reoperation and a health economic analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The protocol has been approved by the National Research Ethics Service Committee (London, Bloomsbury 14/LO/0807). This manuscript is based on V.5.0 of the protocol. The trial findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02128555

Evaluating the potential for the environmentally sustainable control of foot and mouth disease in Sub-Saharan Africa

Strategies to control transboundary diseases have in the past generated unintended negative consequences for both the environment and local human populations. Integrating perspectives from across disciplines, including livestock, veterinary and conservation sectors, is necessary for identifying disease control strategies that optimise environmental goods and services at the wildlife-livestock interface. Prompted by the recent development of a global strategy for the control and elimination of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), this paper seeks insight into the consequences of, and rational options for potential FMD control measures in relation to environmental, conservation and human poverty considerations in Africa. We suggest a more environmentally nuanced process of FMD control that safe-guards the integrity of wild populations and the ecosystem dynamics on which human livelihoods depend while simultaneously improving socio-economic conditions of rural people. In particular, we outline five major issues that need to be considered: 1) improved understanding of the different FMD viral strains and how they circulate between domestic and wildlife populations; 2) an appreciation for the economic value of wildlife for many African countries whose presence might preclude the country from ever achieving an FMD-free status; 3) exploring ways in which livestock production can be improved without compromising wildlife such as implementing commodity-based trading schemes; 4) introducing a participatory approach involving local farmers and the national veterinary services in the control of FMD; and 5) finally the possibility that transfrontier conservation might offer new hope of integrating decision-making at the wildlife-livestock interface

SuperCLASS - III. Weak lensing from radio and optical observations in Data Release 1

We describe the first results on weak gravitational lensing from the SuperCLASS survey: the first survey specifically designed to measure the weak lensing effect in radio-wavelength data, both alone and in cross-correlation with optical data. We analyse 1.53deg2 of optical data from the Subaru telescope and 0.26deg2 of radio data from the e-MERLIN and VLA telescopes (the DR1 data set). Using standard methodologies on the optical data only we make a significant (10σ) detection of the weak lensing signal (a shear power spectrum) due to the massive supercluster of galaxies in the targeted region. For the radio data we develop a new method to measure the shapes of galaxies from the interferometric data, and we construct a simulation pipeline to validate this method. We then apply this analysis to our radio observations, treating the e-MERLIN and VLA data independently. We achieve source densities of 0.5 arcmin−2 in the VLA data and 0.06 arcmin−2 in the e-MERLIN data, numbers which prove too small to allow a detection of a weak lensing signal in either the radio data alone or in cross-correlation with the optical data. Finally, we show preliminary results from a visibility-plane combination of the data from e-MERLIN and VLA which will be used for the forthcoming full SuperCLASS data release. This approach to data combination is expected to enhance both the number density of weak lensing sources available, and the fidelity with which their shapes can be measured

Fungal iron availability during deep seated candidiasis is defined by a complex interplay involving systemic and local events

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