Low-density silicon allotropes for photovoltaic applications

Silicon materials play a key role in many technologically relevant fields, ranging from the electronic to the photovoltaic industry. A systematic search for silicon allotropes was performed by employing a modified ab initio minima hopping crystal structure prediction method. The algorithm was optimized to specifically investigate the hitherto barely explored low-density regime of the silicon phase diagram by imitating the guest-host concept of clathrate compounds. In total 44 metastable phases are presented, of which 11 exhibit direct or quasi-direct band-gaps in the range of $\approx$1.0-1.8 eV, close to the optimal Shockley-Queisser limit of $\approx$1.4 eV, with a stronger overlap of the absorption spectra with the solar spectrum compared to conventional diamond silicon. Due to the structural resemblance to known clathrate compounds it is expected that the predicted phases can be synthesized

Mixture models for distance sampling detection functions

Funding: EPSRC DTGWe present a new class of models for the detection function in distance sampling surveys of wildlife populations, based on finite mixtures of simple parametric key functions such as the half-normal. The models share many of the features of the widely-used “key function plus series adjustment” (K+A) formulation: they are flexible, produce plausible shapes with a small number of parameters, allow incorporation of covariates in addition to distance and can be fitted using maximum likelihood. One important advantage over the K+A approach is that the mixtures are automatically monotonic non-increasing and non-negative, so constrained optimization is not required to ensure distance sampling assumptions are honoured. We compare the mixture formulation to the K+A approach using simulations to evaluate its applicability in a wide set of challenging situations. We also re-analyze four previously problematic real-world case studies. We find mixtures outperform K+A methods in many cases, particularly spiked line transect data (i.e., where detectability drops rapidly at small distances) and larger sample sizes. We recommend that current standard model selection methods for distance sampling detection functions are extended to include mixture models in the candidate set.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Triangulating evidence from longitudinal and Mendelian randomization studies of metabolomic biomarkers for type 2 diabetes.

The number of people affected by Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is close to half a billion and is on a sharp rise, representing a major and growing public health burden. Given its mild initial symptoms, T2DM is often diagnosed several years after its onset, leaving half of diabetic individuals undiagnosed. While several classical clinical and genetic biomarkers have been identified, improving early diagnosis by exploring other kinds of omics data remains crucial. In this study, we have combined longitudinal data from two population-based cohorts CoLaus and DESIR (comprising in total 493 incident cases vs. 1360 controls) to identify new or confirm previously implicated metabolomic biomarkers predicting T2DM incidence more than 5 years ahead of clinical diagnosis. Our longitudinal data have shown robust evidence for valine, leucine, carnitine and glutamic acid being predictive of future conversion to T2DM. We confirmed the causality of such association for leucine by 2-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) based on independent data. Our MR approach further identified new metabolites potentially playing a causal role on T2D, including betaine, lysine and mannose. Interestingly, for valine and leucine a strong reverse causal effect was detected, indicating that the genetic predisposition to T2DM may trigger early changes of these metabolites, which appear well-before any clinical symptoms. In addition, our study revealed a reverse causal effect of metabolites such as glutamic acid and alanine. Collectively, these findings indicate that molecular traits linked to the genetic basis of T2DM may be particularly promising early biomarkers

Spatio-temporal variation in click production rates of beaked whales : implications for passive acoustic density estimation

T.A.M. was funded under Grant No. N000141010382 from the Office of Naval Research (LATTE project) and thanks support by CEAUL (funded by FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the project UID/MAT/00006/2013). M.P.J. was funded by a Marie Curie Career Integration Grant and M.P.J. and P.L.T. were funded by MASTS (The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland, a research pooling initiative funded by the Scottish Funding Council under grant HR09011 and contributing institutions). L.S.H. thanks the BRS Bahamas team that helped collect the Bahamas data, and A. Bocconcelli. D.H. and L.T. were funded by the Office of Naval Research (Award No. N00014-14-1-0394). N.A.S. was funded by an EU-Horizon 2020 Marie Slodowska Curie fellowship (project ECOSOUND). DTAG data in the Canary Islands were collected with funds from the U.S. Office of Naval Research and Fundación Biodiversidad (EU project LIFE INDEMARES) with permit from the Canary Islands and Spanish governments.Passive acoustic monitoring has become an increasingly prevalent tool for estimating density of marine mammals, such as beaked whales, which vocalize often but are difficult to survey visually. Counts of acoustic cues (e.g., vocalizations), when corrected for detection probability, can be translated into animal density estimates by applying an individual cue production rate multiplier. It is essential to understand variation in these rates to avoid biased estimates. The most direct way to measure cue production rate is with animal-mounted acoustic recorders. This study utilized data from sound recording tags deployed on Blainville's (Mesoplodon densirostris, 19 deployments) and Cuvier's (Ziphius cavirostris, 16 deployments) beaked whales, in two locations per species, to explore spatial and temporal variation in click production rates. No spatial or temporal variation was detected within the average click production rate of Blainville's beaked whales when calculated over dive cycles (including silent periods between dives); however, spatial variation was detected when averaged only over vocal periods. Cuvier's beaked whales exhibited significant spatial and temporal variation in click production rates within vocal periods and when silent periods were included. This evidence of variation emphasizes the need to utilize appropriate cue production rates when estimating density from passive acoustic data.PostprintPeer reviewe

The Human Behaviour-Change Project: Harnessing the power of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for evidence synthesis and interpretation

Background Behaviour change is key to addressing both the challenges facing human health and wellbeing and to promoting the uptake of research findings in health policy and practice. We need to make better use of the vast amount of accumulating evidence from behaviour change intervention (BCI) evaluations and promote the uptake of that evidence into a wide range of contexts. The scale and complexity of the task of synthesising and interpreting this evidence, and increasing evidence timeliness and accessibility, will require increased computer support. The Human Behaviour-Change Project (HBCP) will use Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to (i) develop and evaluate a ‘Knowledge System’ that automatically extracts, synthesises and interprets findings from BCI evaluation reports to generate new insights about behaviour change and improve prediction of intervention effectiveness and (ii) allow users, such as practitioners, policy makers and researchers, to easily and efficiently query the system to get answers to variants of the question ‘What works, compared with what, how well, with what exposure, with what behaviours (for how long), for whom, in what settings and why?’. Methods The HBCP will: a) develop an ontology of BCI evaluations and their reports linking effect sizes for given target behaviours with intervention content and delivery and mechanisms of action, as moderated by exposure, populations and settings; b) develop and train an automated feature extraction system to annotate BCI evaluation reports using this ontology; c) develop and train machine learning and reasoning algorithms to use the annotated BCI evaluation reports to predict effect sizes for particular combinations of behaviours, interventions, populations and settings; d) build user and machine interfaces for interrogating and updating the knowledge base; and e) evaluate all the above in terms of performance and utility. Discussion The HBCP aims to revolutionise our ability to synthesise, interpret and deliver evidence on behaviour change interventions that is up-to-date and tailored to user need and context. This will enhance the usefulness, and support the implementation of, that evidence.The project is funded by a Wellcome Trust collaborative award [The Human Behaviour-Change Project: Building the science of behaviour change for complex intervention development’, 201,524/Z/16/Z]. During the preparation of the manuscript RW’s salary was funded by Cancer Research UK

Techniques for estimating the size of low-density gopher tortoise populations

Partial support by CEAUL (funded by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the project UID/MAT/00006/2013) (TAM).Gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) are candidates for range-wide listing as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Reliable population estimates are important to inform policy and management for recovery of the species. Line transect distance sampling has been adopted as the preferred method to estimate population size. However, when tortoise density is low, it can be challenging to obtain enough tortoise observations to reliably estimate the probability of detection, a vital component of the method. We suggest a modification to the method based on counting usable tortoise burrows (more abundant than tortoises) and separately accounting for the proportion of burrows occupied by tortoises. The increased sample size of burrows can outweigh the additional uncertainty induced by the need to account for the proportion of burrows occupied. We demonstrate the method using surveys conducted within a 13,118-ha portion of the Gopher Tortoise Habitat Management Unit at Fort Gordon Army Installation, Georgia. We used a systematic random design to obtain more precise estimates, using a newly developed systematic variance estimator. Individual transects had a spatially efficient design (pseudocircuits), which greatly improved sampling efficiency on this large site. Estimated burrow density was 0.091 ± 0.011 burrows/ha (CV = 12.6%, 95% CI = 0.071–0.116), with 25% of burrows occupied by a tortoise (CV = 14.4%), yielding a tortoise density of 0.023 ± 0.004 tortoise/ha (CV = 19.0%, 95% CI = 0.016–0.033) and a population estimate of 297 tortoises (95% CI = 210–433). These techniques are applicable to other studies and species. Surveying burrows or nests, rather than animals, can produce more reliable estimates when it leads to a significantly larger sample of detections and when the occupancy status can reliably be ascertained. Systematic line transect survey designs give better precision and are practical to implement and analyze.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Effect of the spin-orbit interaction on the band structure and conductance of quasi-one-dimensional systems

We discuss the effect of the spin-orbit interaction on the band structure, wave functions and low temperature conductance of long quasi-one-dimensional electron systems patterned in two-dimensional electron gases (2DEG). Our model for these systems consists of a linear (Rashba) potential confinement in the direction perpendicular to the 2DEG and a parabolic confinement transverse to the 2DEG. We find that these two terms can significantly affect the band structure introducing a wave vector dependence to subband energies, producing additional subband minima and inducing anticrossings between subbands. We discuss the origin of these effects in the symmetries of the subband wave functions.Comment: 15 pages including 14 figures; RevTeX; to appear in Phys.Rev.B (15 Nov 1999

General Messenger Gauge Mediation

We discuss theories of gauge mediation in which the hidden sector consists of two subsectors which are weakly coupled to each other. One sector is made up of messengers and the other breaks supersymmetry. Each sector by itself may be strongly coupled. We provide a unifying framework for such theories and discuss their predictions in different settings. We show how this framework incorporates all known models of messengers. In the case of weakly-coupled messengers interacting with spurions through the superpotential, we prove that the sfermion mass-squared is positive, and furthermore, that there is a lower bound on the ratio of the sfermion mass to the gaugino mass.Comment: 37 pages; minor change

Lifespan extension and the doctrine of double effect

Recent developments in biogerontology—the study of the biology of ageing—suggest that it may eventually be possible to intervene in the human ageing process. This, in turn, offers the prospect of significantly postponing the onset of age-related diseases. The biogerontological project, however, has met with strong resistance, especially by deontologists. They consider the act of intervening in the ageing process impermissible on the grounds that it would (most probably) bring about an extended maximum lifespan—a state of affairs that they deem intrinsically bad. In a bid to convince their deontological opponents of the permissibility of this act, proponents of biogerontology invoke an argument which is grounded in the doctrine of double effect. Surprisingly, their argument, which we refer to as the ‘double effect argument’, has gone unnoticed. This article exposes and critically evaluates this ‘double effect argument’. To this end, we first review a series of excerpts from the ethical debate on biogerontology in order to substantiate the presence of double effect reasoning. Next, we attempt to determine the role that the ‘double effect argument’ is meant to fulfil within this debate. Finally, we assess whether the act of intervening in ageing actually can be justified using double effect reasoning