Estimates of eligibility for antiretroviral treatment (ART) and projected ART impact on AIDS mortality among South African educators

The study assessed the proportion of HIV-infected educators that need antiretroviral treatment (ART) according to current criteria, and estimated the impact of ART on AIDS mortality by modelling scenarios with and without access to ART. Specimens for HIV testing were obtained from 17 088 educators and a sub-sample of 444 venous blood specimens from HIV-positive educators was selected for a CD4 cell count analysis.The Spectrum model package was used for estimating AIDS-associated mortality and projecting the impact of ART scenarios.The results of the CD4 cell count analysis in the HIV-positive educator study population showed that 8% had fewer than 100, 22% fewer than 200, 52% fewer than 350, and 72% fewer than 500 CD4 cells/mm3. Based on the proportion of HIV-positive educators with a CD4 cell count < 200 cells/mm3 we estimated that in 2005 approximately 10 700 educators would need ART according to current SA government guidelines. For the baseline scenario without ART the number of AIDS deaths among HIV-infected educators was projected to increase from 1 992 deaths in 2000 to 5 260 in 2010.The number of projected AIDS deaths in the educator study population was estimated to be 4 414 in 2005, with almost 50% of the AIDS deaths occurring in the 35 - 44 age group.The estimates suggest that in 2005 9.1% of the HIV-infected educators, or 1.2% of the total educator population, will be dying of AIDS. By 2010, a reduction of almost 50% in AIDS deaths was estimated for the treatment scenario with 90% ART coverage, compared with the baseline scenario without treatment. The ART impact scenarios illustrate that a relatively high ART coverage would be needed to ensure a substantial impact of ART on HIV/AIDS-associated mortality.Keywords: antiretroviral treatment, CD4 cell counts,AIDS mortality, impact modelingRésuméCette étude a évalué la proportion des enseignants séropositifs qui ont besoin du traitement antirétroviral (ART) selon les critères actuels. De plus, l'étude a fait une prévision de l'impact d'ART sur la mortalité due au SIDA en présentant deux scénarios: les patients avec accès au ART et ceux sans accès. Les spécimens des essais du VIH ont été obtenu de 17 088 enseignants. En autre, avec le but de faire des analyses des comptes des cellules CD4, un sous-échantillon de 444 spécimens de sang veineux fut obtenu des enseignants séropositifs. L'ensemble de modèles Spectrum a été employé afin de faire des prévisions de mortalité liée au SIDA et aussi pour faire une projection de l'impact des scénarios d'ART. Les résultats des analyses des comptes des cellules CD4 d'une étude de population auprès des enseignants séropositifs ont montré que 8% avaient une charge virale en dessous de 100, 22% moins de 200, 52% moins de 350 et 72% moins de 500 CD4 cellules/mm3 respectivement. Etant donné la proportion des enseignants séropositifs ayant un compte des cellules CD4 moins de 200 cellules/mm3, nous avons prévu qu'en 2005 approximativement 10 700 enseignants auraient besoin d'ART suivant les directives actuelles du gouvernement sud-africain. Pour le scénario de référence sans l'ART, le taux de morts parmi les enseignants séropositifs fut prévu d'augmenter de 1 992 morts en 2000 à 5 260 morts en 2010. Le taux de morts de SIDA projeté dans l'étude de population auprès des enseignants fut prévu d'augmenter à 4 414 en 2005 avec environ 50% de morts de SIDA appartenant au groupe âgé de 35 à 44 ans. Les pronostiques suggèrent qu'en 2005, 9.1% des enseignants séropositifs, ou 1.2% de l'ensemble de la population enseignante, mourront de SIDA. D'ici 2010, une baisse d'environ 50% de morts de SIDA est prévue pour les scénarios sur traitement, avec une provision de 90% d'ART en comparaison au scénario de référence sans traitement. Les scénarios de l'impact d'ART démontrent qu'une provision relativement élevée d'ART serait nécessaire afin d'assurer un impact considérable d'ART sur la mortalité liée au VIH/SIDA.Mots clés: traitement antirétroviral, comptes des cellules CD4, mortalité de SIDA, modeler l'impact SAHARA J (Journal of Social Aspects of HIV/AIDS Research Alliance) Vol. 2(3) 2005: 300-31

A Decline in New HIV Infections in South Africa: Estimating HIV Incidence from Three National HIV Surveys in 2002, 2005 and 2008

Three national HIV household surveys were conducted in South Africa, in 2002, 2005 and 2008. A novelty of the 2008 survey was the addition of serological testing to ascertain antiretroviral treatment (ART) use.We used a validated mathematical method to estimate the rate of new HIV infections (HIV incidence) in South Africa using nationally representative HIV prevalence data collected in 2002, 2005 and 2008. The observed HIV prevalence levels in 2008 were adjusted for the effect of antiretroviral treatment on survival. The estimated "excess" HIV prevalence due to ART in 2008 was highest among women 25 years and older and among men 30 years and older. In the period 2002-2005, the HIV incidence rate among men and women aged 15-49 years was estimated to be 2.0 new infections each year per 100 susceptible individuals (/100pyar) (uncertainty range: 1.2-3.0/100pyar). The highest incidence rate was among 15-24 year-old women, at 5.5/100pyar (4.5-6.5). In the period 2005-2008, incidence among men and women aged 15-49 was estimated to be 1.3/100 (0.6-2.5/100pyar), although the change from 2002-2005 was not statistically significant. However, the incidence rate among young women aged 15-24 declined by 60% in the same period, to 2.2/100pyar, and this change was statistically significant. There is evidence from the surveys of significant increases in condom use and awareness of HIV status, especially among youth.Our analysis demonstrates how serial measures of HIV prevalence obtained in population-based surveys can be used to estimate national HIV incidence rates. We also show the need to determine the impact of ART on observed HIV prevalence levels. The estimation of HIV incidence and ART exposure is crucial to disentangle the concurrent impact of prevention and treatment programs on HIV prevalence

Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: a validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era

Background Mathematical models are widely used to simulate the eff ects of interventions to control HIV and to project future epidemiological trends and resource needs. We aimed to validate past model projections against data from a large household survey done in South Africa in 2012. Methods We compared ten model projections of HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage for South Africa with estimates from national household survey data from 2012. Model projections for 2012 were made before the publication of the 2012 household survey. We compared adult (age 15–49 years) HIV prevalence in 2012, the change in prevalence between 2008 and 2012, and prevalence, incidence, and ART coverage by sex and by age groups between model projections and the 2012 household survey. Findings All models projected lower prevalence estimates for 2012 than the survey estimate (18·8%), with eight models’ central projections being below the survey 95% CI (17·5–20·3). Eight models projected that HIV prevalence would remain unchanged (n=5) or decline (n=3) between 2008 and 2012, whereas prevalence estimates from the household surveys increased from 16·9% in 2008 to 18·8% in 2012 (diff erence 1·9, 95% CI –0·1 to 3·9). Model projections accurately predicted the 1·6 percentage point prevalence decline (95% CI –0·3 to 3·5) in young adults aged 15–24 years, and the 2·2 percentage point (0·5 to 3·9) increase in those aged 50 years and older. Models accurately represented the number of adults on ART in 2012; six of ten models were within the survey 95% CI of 1·54–2·12 million. However, the diff erential ART coverage between women and men was not fully captured; all model projections of the sex ratio of women to men on ART were lower than the survey estimate of 2·22 (95% CI 1·73–2·71). Interpretation Projections for overall declines in HIV epidemics during the ART era might have been optimistic. Future treatment and HIV prevention needs might be greater than previously forecasted. Additional data about service provision for HIV care could help inform more accurate projections

Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of condomless-sex-concentrated PrEP in KwaZulu-Natal accounting for drug resistance

INTRODUCTION: Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the form of tenofovir-disoproxil-fumarate/emtricitabine is being implemented in selected sites in South Africa. Addressing outstanding questions on PrEP cost-effectiveness can inform further implementation. METHODS: We calibrated an individual-based model to KwaZulu-Natal to predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of PrEP, with use concentrated in periods of condomless sex, accounting for effects on drug resistance. We consider (i) PrEP availability for adolescent-girls-and-young-women (aged 15-24; AGYW) and female sex workers (FSW), and (ii) availability for everyone aged 15-64. Our primary analysis represents a level of PrEP use hypothesized to be attainable by future PrEP programmes. RESULTS: In the context of PrEP use in adults aged 15-64 there was a predicted 33% reduction in incidence, and 36% reduction in women aged 15-24. PrEP was cost effective, including in a range of sensitivity analyses, although with substantially reduced (cost) effectiveness under a policy of ART initiation with efavirenz- rather than dolutegravir-based regimens due to PrEP undermining ART effectiveness by increasing HIV drug resistance. CONCLUSIONS: PrEP use concentrated during time periods of condomless sex has the potential to substantively impact HIV incidence and be cost-effective

Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: A validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era

Background: Mathematical models are widely used to simulate the effects of interventions to control HIV and to project future epidemiological trends and resource needs. We aimed to validate past model projections against data from a large household survey done in South Africa in 2012. Methods: We compared ten model projections of HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage for South Africa with estimates from national household survey data from 2012. Model projections for 2012 were made before the publication of the 2012 household survey. We compared adult (age 15-49 years) HIV prevalence in 2012, the change in prevalence between 2008 and 2012, and prevalence, incidence, and ART coverage by sex and by age groups between model projections and the 2012 household survey. Findings: All models projected lower prevalence estimates for 2012 than the survey estimate (18·8%), with eight models' central projections being below the survey 95% CI (17·5-20·3). Eight models projected that HIV prevalence would remain unchanged (n=5) or decline (n=3) between 2008 and 2012, whereas prevalence estimates from the household surveys increased from 16·9% in 2008 to 18·8% in 2012 (difference 1·9, 95% CI -0·1 to 3·9). Model projections accurately predicted the 1·6 percentage point prevalence decline (95% CI -0·3 to 3·5) in young adults aged 15-24 years, and the 2·2 percentage point (0·5 to 3·9) increase in those aged 50 years and older. Models accurately represented the number of adults on ART in 2012; six of ten models were within the survey 95% CI of 1·54-2·12 million. However, the differential ART coverage between women and men was not fully captured; all model projections of the sex ratio of women to men on ART were lower than the survey estimate of 2·22 (95% CI 1·73-2·71). Interpretation: Projections for overall declines in HIV epidemics during the ART era might have been optimistic. Future treatment and HIV prevention needs might be greater than previously forecasted. Additional data about service provision for HIV care could help inform more accurate projections. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Educational outreach in an integrated clinical management tool for nurse-led non-communicable chronic disease management in primary care in South Africa: pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial

Background: In many low-income countries, care for patients with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and mental health conditions is provided by nurses. The benefits of nurse substitution and supplementation in NCD care in high income settings are well recognised, but evidence from low- and middle-income countries is limited. Primary Care 101 (PC101) is a programme designed to support and expand nurses’ role in NCD care, comprising a clinical management tool with enhanced prescribing provisions for nurses, and educational outreach. We evaluated the effectiveness of the programme on primary care nurses’ capacity to manage NCDs (ISRCTN20283604). Methods and findings: In a cluster randomised controlled trial design, 38 public sector primary care clinics in the Western Cape province, South Africa, were randomised. Nurses in the intervention clinics were trained to use the PC101 management tool during educational outreach sessions delivered by health department trainers and authorised to prescribe an expanded range of drugs for several NCDs. Control clinics continued use of the Practical Approach to Lung Health and HIV /AIDS in South Africa (PALSA PLUS) management tool and usual training. Patients attending these clinics with one or more of hypertension (3227), diabetes (1842), chronic respiratory disease (1157) or screened positive for depression (2466), totalling 4393 patients, were enrolled between March 2011 and October 2011. Primary outcomes were treatment intensification for hypertension, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease cohorts, defined as the proportion of patients in whom treatment was escalated during follow-up over 14 months, and case detection in the depression cohort. Primary outcome data were analysed for 2110 (97%) intervention and 2170 (97%) control group patients. Treatment intensification rates in intervention clinics were not superior to those in the control group clinics [hypertension: 44% in the intervention group versus 40% in the controls, risk ratio (RR) 1.08 (95% CI: 0.94 to 1.24; p=0.252); diabetes: 57% v 50%, RR 1.10 (0.97 to 1.24;p=0.126); chronic respiratory disease: 14% v 12%, RR 1.08 (0.75 to 1.55; p=0.674); and case detection of depression: 18% v 24%, RR 0.76 (0.53 to 1.10; p=0.142)]. No adverse effects of the nurses’ expanded scope of practice were observed. Limitations of the study include dependence on self-reported diagnoses for inclusion in the patient cohorts, limited data on uptake of PC101 by users, reliance on process outcomes, and insufficient resources to measure important health outcomes, such as HbA1c, at follow-up. Conclusions: Educational outreach to primary care nurses through use of a management tool involving an expanded role in managing NCDs, is feasible and safe but was not associated with treatment intensification or case detection for index diseases. This notwithstanding, the intervention, with adjustments to improve its effectiveness, has been adopted for implementation in primary care clinics throughout South Africa

Age-disparate sex and HIV risk for young women from 2002 to 2012 in South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Age-disparate sex has long been considered a factor that increases HIV risk for young women in South Africa. However, recent studies from specific regions in South Africa have found conflicting evidence. Few studies have assessed the association between age-disparate partnerships (those involving an age gap of 5 years or more) and HIV risk at the national level. This study investigates the relationship between age-disparate sex and HIV status among young women aged 15-24 in South Africa. METHODS: Nationally representative weighted data from the 2002, 2005, 2008, and 2012 South African National HIV Surveys were analysed for young women aged 15-24 years using bivariate analyses and multiple logistic regressions. RESULTS: After conducting multiple logistic regression analyses and controlling for confounders, young women with age-disparate partners had greater odds of being HIV positive in every survey year: 2002 (aOR = 1.74, 95%CI: 0.81-3.76, p = 0.16); 2005 (aOR = 2.11, 95%CI: 1.22-3.66, p < 0.01); 2008 (aOR = 2.02, 95%CI: 1.24-3.29, p < 0.01); 2012 (aOR = 1.53, 95%CI: 0.92-2.54, p < 0.1). The odds of being HIV positive increased for each year increase in their male partner's age in 2002 (aOR = 1.10, 95%CI: 0.98-1.22, p = 0.11), 2005 (aOR = 1.10, 95%CI: 1.03-1.17, p < 0.01), 2008 (aOR = 1.08, 95%CI: 1.01-1.15, p < 0.05), and 2012 (aOR = 1.08, 95%CI: 1.01-1.16, p < 0.05). Findings were statistically significant (p < 0.1) for the years 2005, 2008, and 2012. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that age-disparate sex continues to be a risk factor for young women aged 15-24 in South Africa at a national level. These results may reflect variation in HIV risk at the national level compared to the differing results from recent studies in a demographic surveillance system and trial contexts. In light of recent contradictory study results, further research is required on the relationship between age-disparate sex and HIV for a more nuanced understanding of young women's HIV risk

Recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women and all women in sub-Saharan Africa: implications for HIV estimates

a Objectives: National population-wide HIV prevalence and incidence trends in subSaharan Africa (SSA) are indirectly estimated using HIV prevalence measured among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANC), among other data. We evaluated whether recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women are representative of general population trends. Design: Serial population-based household surveys in 13 SSA countries. Methods: We calculated HIV prevalence trends among all women aged 15-49 years and currently pregnant women between surveys conducted from 2003 to 2008 (period 1) and 2009 to 2012 (period 2). Log-binomial regression was used to test for a difference in prevalence trend between the two groups. Prevalence among pregnant women was age-standardized to represent the age distribution of all women. Results: Pooling data for all countries, HIV prevalence declined among pregnant women from 6.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.3-7.9%] to 5.3% (95% CI 4.2-6.6%) between periods 1 and 2, whereas it remained unchanged among all women at 8.4% (95% CI 8.0-8.9%) in period 1 and 8.3% (95% CI 7.9-8.8%) in period 2. Prevalence declined by 18% (95% CI À9-38%) more in pregnant women than nonpregnant women. Estimates were similar in Western, Eastern, and Southern regions of SSA; none were statistically significant (P &gt; 0.05). HIV prevalence decreased significantly among women aged 15-24 years while increasing significantly among women 35-49 years, who represented 29% of women but only 15% of pregnant women. Age-standardization of prevalence in pregnant women did not reconcile the discrepant trends because at older ages prevalence was lower among pregnant women than nonpregnant women. Conclusion: As HIV prevalence in SSA has shifted toward older, less-fertile women, HIV prevalence among pregnant women has declined more rapidly than prevalence in women overall. Interpretation of ANC prevalence data to inform national HIV estimates should account for both age-specific fertility patterns and HIV-related sub-fertility