Flexible and practical modeling of animal telemetry data: hidden Markov models and extensions

We discuss hidden Markov-type models for fitting a variety of multistate random walks to wildlife movement data. Discrete-time hidden Markov models (HMMs) achieve considerable computational gains by focusing on observations that are regularly spaced in time, and for which the measurement error is negligible. These conditions are often met, in particular for data related to terrestrial animals, so that a likelihood-based HMM approach is feasible. We describe a number of extensions of HMMs for animal movement modeling, including more flexible state transition models and individual random effects (fitted in a non-Bayesian framework). In particular we consider so-called hidden semi-Markov models, which may substantially improve the goodness of fit and provide important insights into the behavioral state switching dynamics. To showcase the expediency of these methods, we consider an application of a hierarchical hidden semi-Markov model to multiple bison movement paths

Atmospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) abundances from ground-based ultraviolet solar spectra: an improved retrieval method

The Fourier Transform Ultraviolet Spectrometer (FTUVS) instrument has recorded a long-term data record of the atmospheric column abundance of the hydroxyl radical (OH) using the technique of high resolution solar absorption spectroscopy. We report new efforts in improving the precision of the OH measurements in order to better model the diurnal, seasonal, and interannual variability of odd hydrogen (HOx) chemistry in the stratosphere, which, in turn, will improve our understanding of ozone chemistry and its long-term changes. Until the present, the retrieval method has used a single strong OH absorption line P1(1) in the near-ultraviolet at 32,341 cm−1. We describe a new method that uses an average based on spectral fits to multiple lines weighted by line strength and fitting precision. We have also made a number of improvements in the ability to fit a model to the spectral feature, which substantially reduces the scatter in the measurements of OH abundances

Comparisons of Critical Thermal Maxima and Minima of Juvenile Red Drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) from Texas and North Carolina

The Texas Parks and Wildlife Department was Interested In Identifying cold-tolerant red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) for a supplemental bay stocking program to help prevent massive fish kills when winter temperatures drop to potentially dangerous levels. Critical thermal maxima (CTMax) and minima (CTMin) of Juvenile red drum from Texas and North Carolina were determined to test for possible geographically based differences In thermal tolerance limits. Juvenile red drum from the two regions acclimated to either 12°C or 20°C exhibited similar thermal tolerance limits while Texas red drum acclimated to 12°C exhibited a statistically higher CTMax, however the observed difference Is not Interpreted as biologically significant. The adjusted mean CTMin for the combined Texas and North Carolina red drum acclimated to 12°C was 1.6°C and adjusted mean CTMax for combined Texas and North Carolina red drum acclimated to 12°C was 29.5°C, and the adjusted mean CTMax for Individuals acclimated to 20°C was 34.8°C. These results suggest red drum from northern and southern parts of the species range have similar temperature tolerances

Physical properties dynamics of oil sands products and their influence on spill response

247 leaves : illustrations (chiefly colour) ; 29 cmIncludes abstract and appendix.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 164-185).If current trends continue, Alberta oil sands production could increase by a million barrels per day in the next decade. Demand would then overwhelm existing domestic transport routes, and one would predict pressure to mount for new pipelines and expansion of existing ones, and increased tanker traffic to provide access to new overseas markets. In Canada, mechanical recovery is the primary oil spill response option. It is effective, but only under relatively calm seas. Alternative oil spill countermeasures exist, such as chemical dispersant and in situ burning. The analysis here indicates that, if approved through legislation and applied in conditions to achieve best results, these alternatives could considerably reduce environmental and socio-economic impacts than mechanical recovery alone. Current Canadian contingency plans lack the decision-making tools to predict the effectiveness of oil spill countermeasures to treat and assess the risk from spills to protect sensitive aquatic areas. Blended bitumen and conventional oils were selected and their physical properties and chemical compositions, relevant to ecological impacts and oil spill response, were characterized. Empirical models were developed to predict the rate and decay of water soluble chemicals released from spills of bitumen blends to provide implications for risk assessments. A decision matrix was created from newly developed models for the time evolution of the density and viscosity of oil to forecast windows of opportunity, where countermeasures are effective at treating spills and the conditions under which oil would sink in aquatic areas. Also, evaluation of seasonal climatic factors revealed that sunlight exposure, wind speed and temperature had a significant (p<0.05) influence on weathering of oil. A new oil dispersion model was developed to estimate effectiveness values for dispersant to treat oil at points in time after its release. These new developments offer to strengthen critical elements that are often missing in contingency plans

Surface films : do they influence the effectiveness of oil spill chemical dispersants as studied in a wave tank facility?

97 leaves : ill. ; 29 cm.Includes abstract and appendices.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 71-74).Lab basins and wave tanks have unnatural boundaries (walls) that provide an ideal environment for surface film formation on seawater. Surface films form from natural surfactants in oil and dispersant overspray when applied to seawater. The adsorption process of selected crude oils, Arabian Light (ALC) and Alaskan North Slope (ANS) on static seawater in a lab basin was demonstrated to follow diffusion-controlled short time limit adsorption kinetics. The process of crude oil spreading on the surface of the basin seawater was affected in the presence of surface films as shown using kinetic models. ANS dispersed in the dynamic wave tank seawater with and without a surface film (dispersant overspray) was evaluated using kinetic models. It was found that oil dispersed in wave tank seawater, in the presence of dispersant overspray, influences oil dispersant effectiveness and produced confounding outcomes that are an unnatural model of dispersed oil fate and effects

The Effects of Display Type, Weather Type, and Pilot Experience on Pilot Interpretation of Weather Products

The majority of general aviation (GA) accidents involving adverse weather result in fatalities. Considering the high weather-related fatality rate among GA flight operations, it is imperative to ensure that GA pilots of all experience levels can incorporate available weather information into their flight planning. In the past decade, weather product development has incorporated increasing levels of automation, which has led to the generation of high-resolution, model-based aviation displays such as graphical turbulence guidance and current icing potential, which rival the resolution of radar and satellite imagery. This is in stark contrast to the traditional polygonal-based displays of aviation weather hazards (G-AIRMETs and SIGMETs). It is important to investigate the effects of these changes on the end user. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to compare the interpretability of weather products for two areas of interest: display type (traditional polygons vs. model-based imagery) and type of weather phenomena (ceiling/visibility, turbulence, and icing), across a range of pilot experience levels. Two hundred and four participants completed a series of weather product interpretation questions. The results indicated significant effects of product display type, as well as significant effects of weather phenomena and pilot experience on product interpretation. Further investigation is needed to assess possible extraneous variables

Elder Financial Exploitation: Implications for Future Policy and Research in Elder Mistreatment

Recent advances in the understanding of elder mistreatment have demonstrated that financial exploitation tends to be one of the most common forms of mistreatment affecting older populations. Agencies such as the World Bank and World Health Organization show significant concern regarding financial exploitation and its connection to physical and emotional injury to victims. The World Bank uses the term “financial violence” as a means of generally describing the harm caused to an individual as a result of financial exploitation or abuse. The proportion of financial exploitation in relation to other forms of elder mistreatment is defined in our research. We discuss the potential impact of elder financial exploitation on victims as well as explore the implications for future research and policy development focused on financial aspects of elder mistreatment and call for further study in the concept of financial exploitation as a violent act

Evaluating GA Pilots\u27 Interpretation of New Automated Weather Products

Introduction: Over the past 30 years, General Aviation (GA) operations have incurred the majority of weather related accidents in civil aviation operations. Aviation weather knowledge and skills are imperative for hazardous weather avoidance and safe flight activity. Previous research suggests applying human-computer interaction (HCI) principles to weather products may promote better decision-making among pilots. Currently, the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) generates two forms of graphical weather products for reporting icing, turbulence, and visibility: traditional human-in-the-loop products (G-AIRMETs Ice, Tango, and Sierra) and the fully-automated products (CIP/FIP, GTG, and CVA). This study compares pilots’ interpretation of fully-automated products against their interpretation of human-in-loop products. Method: Participants (n=131) completed a series of weather product interpretation questions. Mixed ANOVAs were conducted to analyze the effects of pilot certificate and/or rating (Student, Private, Private w/Instrument, Commercial w/ Instrument) and product generation (traditional vs. automated) on product interpretation scores. Results: Regardless of product generation, pilots displayed similar levels of proficiency when interpreting the icing and ceiling/visibility products. However, pilots’ performed significantly better on the new fully automated turbulence product (GTG) than on the traditional human-in-the-loop turbulence product (AIRMET Tango). Discussion: Producing more user-friendly weather products may make weather product interpretation easier for novice pilots

Assessing General Aviation Pilots\u27 Weather Knowledge and Self-Efficacy

While accident trends in General Aviation (GA) have decreased overall, accidents rates involving weather have remained relatively consistent over the past 10 years. An assessment was developed and validated to assess if GA pilots lack adequate knowledge of aviation weather concepts. The assessment consisted of a 95 question Aviation Weather Knowledge multiple-choice test covering weather phenomena, aviation weather products, and aviation weather product sources. 204 GA pilots completed the knowledge questions along with an aviation weather self-efficacy (confidence) survey. Results indicated that while instrument rated commercial pilots demonstrated the highest levels of knowledge, their scores were only moderate – around 65% correct. Private pilots had scores in the 60% range. These results may indicate that pilots flying in GA operations have a relatively low level of aviation weather knowledge. Weather self-efficacy was correlated positively with aviation weather knowledge

SPIDR: Small-Molecule Peptide-Influenced Drug Repurposing

Background: Conventional de novo drug design is costly and time consuming, making it accessible to only the best resourced research organizations. An emergent approach to new drug development is drug repurposing, in which compounds that have already gone through some level of clinical testing are examined for efficacy against diseases divergent than their original application. Repurposing of existing drugs circumvents the time and considerable cost of early stages of drug development, and can be accelerated by using software to screen existing chemical databases to identify suitable drug candidates. Results: Small-molecule Peptide-Influenced Drug Repurposing (SPIDR) was developed to identify small molecule drugs that target a specific receptor by exploring the conformational binding space of peptide ligands. SPIDR was tested using the potent and selective 16-amino acid peptide α-conotoxin MII ligand and the α3β2-nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (nAChR) isoform. SPIDR incorporates a genetic algorithm-based, heuristic search procedure, which was used to explore the ligand binding domain of the α3β2-nAChR isoform using a library consisting of 640,000 α-conotoxin MII peptide analogs. The peptides that exhibited the highest affinity for α3β2-nAChR were used as models for a small-molecule structure similarity search of the PubChem Compound database. SPIDR incorporates the SimSearcher utility, which generates shape distribution signatures of molecules and employs multi-level K-means clustering to insure fast database queries. SPIDR identified non-peptide drugs with estimated binding affinities nearly double that of the native α-conotoxin MII peptide. Conclusions: SPIDR has been generalized and integrated into DockoMatic v 2.1. This software contains an intuitive graphical interface for peptide mutant screening workflow and facilitates mapping, clustering, and searching of local molecular databases, making DockoMatic a valuable tool for researchers in drug design and repurposing