The Cost of US Pharmaceutical Price Reductions: A Financial Simulation Model of R&D Decisions

Previous empirical studies that have examined the links between pharmaceutical price controls, profits, cash flows, and investment in research and development (R&D) have been largely based on retrospective statistical analyses of firm- and/or industry-level data. These studies, which have contributed numerous insights and findings to the literature, relied upon ad hoc reduced-form model specifications. In the current paper we take a very different approach: a prospective micro-simulation approach. Using Monte Carlo techniques we model how future price controls in the U.S. will impact early-stage product development decisions in the pharmaceutical industry. This is done within the context of a net present value (NPV) framework that appropriately reflects the uncertainty associated with R&D project technical success, development costs, and future revenues. Using partial-information estimators calibrated with the most contemporary clinical and economic data available, we demonstrate how pharmaceutical price controls will significantly diminish the incentives to undertake early-stage R&D investment. For example, we estimate that cutting prices by 40 to 50 percent in the U.S. will lead to between 30 to 60 percent fewer R&D projects being undertaken (in early-stage development). Given the recent legislative efforts to control prescription drug prices in the U.S., and the likelihood that price controls will prevail as a result, it is important to better understand the firm response to such a regulatory change.

Measurement of overall insecticidal effects in experimental hut trials

BACKGROUND: The 'overall insecticidal effect' is a key measure used to evaluate public health pesticides for indoor use in experimental hut trials. It depends on the proportion of mosquitoes that are killed out of those that enter the treated hut, intrinsic mortality in the control hut, and the ratio of mosquitoes entering the treatment hut to those entering the control hut. This paper critically examines the way the effect is defined, and discusses how it can be used to infer effectiveness of intervention programmes. FINDINGS: The overall insecticidal effect, as defined by the World Health Organization in 2006, can be negative when deterrence from entering the treated hut is high, even if all mosquitoes that enter are killed, wrongly suggesting that the insecticide enhances mosquito survival. Also in the absence of deterrence, even if the insecticide kills all mosquitoes in the treatment hut, the insecticidal effect is less than 100%, unless intrinsic mortality is nil. A proposed alternative definition for the measurement of the overall insecticidal effect has the desirable range of 0 to 1 (100%), provided mortality among non-repelled mosquitoes in the treated hut is less than the corresponding mortality in the control hut. This definition can be built upon to formulate the coverage-dependent insecticidal effectiveness of an intervention programme. Coverage-dependent population protection against feeding can be formulated similarly. CONCLUSIONS: This paper shows that the 2006 recommended quantity for measuring the overall insecticidal effect is problematic, and proposes an alternative quantity with more desirable propertie

Dimensions of professional competences for interventions towards sustainability

This paper investigates sustainability competences through the eyes of professional practitioners in the field of sustainability and presents empirical data that have been created using an action research approach. The design of the study consists of two workshops, in which professional practitioners in interaction with each other and the facilitators are invited to explore and reflect on the specific knowledge, skills, attitudes and behaviours necessary to conduct change processes successfully towards sustainability in a variety of business and professional contexts. The research focuses on the competences associated with these change processes to devise, propose and conduct appropriate interventions that address sustainability issues. Labelled ‘intervention competence’, this ability comprises an interlocking set of knowledge, skills, attitudes and behaviours that include: appreciating the importance of (trying to) reaching decisions or interventions; being able to learn from lived experience of practice and to connect such learning to one’s own scientific knowledge; being able to engage in political-strategic thinking, deliberations and actions, related to different perspectives; the ability for showing goal-oriented, adequate action; adopting and communicating ethical practices during the intervention process; being able to cope with the degree of complexity, and finally being able to translate stakeholder diversity into collectively produced interventions (actions) towards sustainability. Moreover, this competence has to be practised in contexts of competing values, non-technical interests and power relations. The article concludes with recommendations for future research and practice

Strangeness Enhancement in p-A Collisions: Consequences for the Interpretation of Strangeness Production in A-A Collisions

Published measurements of semi-inclusive Lambda production in p-Au collisions at the AGS are used to estimate the yields of singly strange hadrons in nucleus-nucleus A-A collisions. Results of a described extrapolation technique are shown and compared to measurements of K+ production in Si-Al, Si-Au, and Au-Au collisions at the AGS and net Lambda production in Su-Su, S-Ag, Pb-Pb, and inclusive p-A collisions at the SPS. The extrapolations can account for more than 75% of the measured strange particle yields in all of the studied systems except for very central Au-Au collisions at the AGS where RQMD comparisons suggest large re-scattering contributions.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure

Plasma sTNFR1 and IL8 for prognostic enrichment in sepsis trials: a prospective cohort study.

BackgroundEnrichment strategies improve therapeutic targeting and trial efficiency, but enrichment factors for sepsis trials are lacking. We determined whether concentrations of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (sTNFR1), interleukin-8 (IL8), and angiopoietin-2 (Ang2) could identify sepsis patients at higher mortality risk and serve as prognostic enrichment factors.MethodsIn a multicenter prospective cohort study of 400 critically ill septic patients, we derived and validated thresholds for each marker and expressed prognostic enrichment using risk differences (RD) of 30-day mortality as predictive values. We then used decision curve analysis to simulate the prognostic enrichment of each marker and compare different prognostic enrichment strategies.Measurements and main resultsAn admission sTNFR1 concentration > 8861 pg/ml identified patients with increased mortality in both the derivation (RD 21.6%) and validation (RD 17.8%) populations. Among immunocompetent patients, an IL8 concentration > 94 pg/ml identified patients with increased mortality in both the derivation (RD 17.7%) and validation (RD 27.0%) populations. An Ang2 level > 9761 pg/ml identified patients at 21.3% and 12.3% increased risk of mortality in the derivation and validation populations, respectively. Using sTNFR1 or IL8 to select high-risk patients improved clinical trial power and efficiency compared to selecting patients with septic shock. Ang2 did not outperform septic shock as an enrichment factor.ConclusionsThresholds for sTNFR1 and IL8 consistently identified sepsis patients with higher mortality risk and may have utility for prognostic enrichment in sepsis trials

Phage inhibit pathogen dissemination by targeting bacterial migrants in a chronic infection model

The microbial communities inhabiting chronic infections are often composed of spatially organized micrometer-sized, highly dense aggregates. It has recently been hypothesized that aggregates are responsible for the high tolerance of chronic infections to host immune functions and antimicrobial therapies. Little is currently known regarding the mechanisms controlling aggregate formation and antimicrobial tolerance primarily because of the lack of robust, biologically relevant experimental systems that promote natural aggregate formation. Here, we developed an in vitro model based on chronic Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection of the cystic fibrosis (CF) lung. This model utilizes a synthetic sputum medium that readily promotes the formation of P. aeruginosa aggregates with sizes similar to those observed in human CF lung tissue. Using high-resolution imaging, we exploited this model to elucidate the life history of P. aeruginosa and the mechanisms that this bacterium utilizes to tolerate antimicrobials, specifically, bacteriophage. In the early stages of growth in synthetic sputum, planktonic cells form aggregates that increase in size over time by expansion. In later growth, migrant cells disperse from aggregates and colonize new areas, seeding new aggregates. When added simultaneously with phage, P. aeruginosa was readily killed and aggregates were unable to form. When added after initial aggregate formation, phage were unable to eliminate all of the aggregates because of exopolysaccharide production; however, seeding of new aggregates by dispersed migrants was inhibited. We propose a model in which aggregates provide a mechanism that allows P. aeruginosa to tolerate phage therapy during chronic infection without the need for genetic mutation

Searching for Gravitational Waves from Binary Inspirals with LIGO

We describe the current status of the search for gravitational waves from inspiralling compact binary systems in LIGO data. We review the result from the first scientific run of LIGO (S1). We present the goals of the search of data taken in the second scientific run (S2) and describe the differences between the methods used in S1 and S2.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figures. Published in proceedings of the 8th Gravitational Wave Data Analysis Workshop, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 17-20 December 200