Three billion new trees in the EU’s biodiversity strategy: low ambition, but better environmental outcomes?

The EU Biodiversity strategy aims to plant 3 billion trees by 2030, in order to improve ecosystem restoration and biodiversity. Here, we compute the land area that would be required to support this number of newly planted trees by taking account of different tree species and planting regimes across the EU member states. We find that 3 billion trees would require a total land area of between 0.81 and 1.37 Mha (avg. 1.02 Mha). The historic forest expansion in the EU since 2010 was 2.44 Mha, meaning that despite 3 billion trees sounding like a large number this target is considerably lower than historic afforestation rates within the EU, i.e. only 40% of the past trend. Abandoned agricultural land is often proposed as providing capacity for afforestation. We estimate agricultural abandoned land areas from the HIstoric Land Dynamics Assessment+ database using two time thresholds (abandonment since 2009 or 2014) to identify potential areas for tree planting. The area of agricultural abandoned land was 2.6 Mha (potentially accommodating 7.2 billion trees) since 2009 and 0.2 Mha (potentially accommodating 741 million trees) since 2014. Our study highlights that sufficient space could be available to meet the 3 billion tree planting target from abandoned land. However, large-scale afforestation beyond abandoned land could have displacement effects elsewhere in the world because of the embodied deforestation in the import of agricultural crops and livestock. This would negate the expected benefits of EU afforestation. Hence, the EU\u27s relatively low ambition on tree planting may actually be better in terms of avoiding such displacement effects. We suggest that tree planting targets should be set at a level that considers physical ecosystem dynamics as well as socio-economic conditions

Uncertainties in the land-use flux resulting from land-use change reconstructions and gross land transitions

Land-use and land-cover (LUC) changes are a key uncertainty when attributing changes in measured atmospheric CO2 concentration to its sinks and sources and must also be much better understood to determine the possibilities for land-based climate change mitigation, especially in the light of human demand on other land-based resources. On the spatial scale typically used in terrestrial ecosystem models (0.5 or 1°) changes in LUC over time periods of a few years or more can include bidirectional changes on the sub-grid level, such as the parallel expansion and abandonment of agricultural land (e.g. in shifting cultivation) or cropland–grassland conversion (and vice versa). These complex changes between classes within a grid cell have often been neglected in previous studies, and only net changes of land between natural vegetation cover, cropland and pastures accounted for, mainly because of a lack of reliable high-resolution historical information on gross land transitions, in combination with technical limitations within the models themselves. In the present study we applied a state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model with a detailed representation of croplands and carbon–nitrogen dynamics to quantify the uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes arising from the choice between net and gross representations of LUC. We used three frequently applied global, one recent global and one recent European LUC datasets, two of which resolve gross land transitions, either in Europe or in certain tropical regions. When considering only net changes, land-use-transition uncertainties (expressed as 1 standard deviation around decadal means of four models) in global carbon emissions from LUC (ELUC) are ±0.19, ±0.66 and ±0.47 Pg C a−1 in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively, or between 14 and 39 % of mean ELUC. Carbon stocks at the end of the 20th century vary by ±11 Pg C for vegetation and ±37 Pg C for soil C due to the choice of LUC reconstruction, i.e. around 3 % of the respective C pools. Accounting for sub-grid (gross) land conversions significantly increased the effect of LUC on global and European carbon stocks and fluxes, most noticeably enhancing global cumulative ELUC by 33 Pg C (1750–2014) and entailing a significant reduction in carbon stored in vegetation, although the effect on soil C stocks was limited. Simulations demonstrated that assessments of historical carbon stocks and fluxes are highly uncertain due to the choice of LUC reconstruction and that the consideration of different contrasting LUC reconstructions is needed to account for this uncertainty. The analysis of gross, in addition to net, land-use changes showed that the full complexity of gross land-use changes is required in order to accurately predict the magnitude of LUC change emissions. This introduces technical challenges to process-based models and relies on extensive information regarding historical land-use transitions

Impact of human foraging on tree diversity, composition, and abundance in a tropical rainforest

Tropical forest tree communities are structured by a range of large-scale drivers including elevation, certain high-impact anthropogenic activities (e.g., deforestation), and fires. However, low-impact human activities such as foraging may also be subtly but notably altering the composition of tropical forest tree communities. The study assessed the (i) differences in species diversity, patterns of relative abundance, and pairwise beta diversity between trees with edible and inedible fruits and seeds along an elevation gradient, and (ii) impact of human foraging on the forest tree communities in Oban Division of Cross River National Park, Nigeria. Fifteen permanent 40 by 40 m plots were established along an elevational gradient (120–460 m above mean sea level). All trees of 0.1 m diameter at breast height (dbh) and above were measured, identified, and, with the aid of structured questionnaires, classified into those with edible and inedible fruits/seeds. A total of 35 edible species with density of 128 stems/hectare and basal area of 11.99 m2/hectare, and 109 inedible species with density of 364 stems/hectare and basal area of 22.42 m2/hectare were sampled. However, the evenness of edible and inedible species was similar at pooled and plot levels. For inedible species, there was a positive relationship between pairwise beta diversity and elevation, and this was driven mainly by turnover. In contrast, edible species exhibited a non-significant trend between elevation and beta diversity. Thus, the study showed that human foraging of edible fruits may have subtly influenced patterns of species diversity and community structure in this tropical forest.FUNDING: Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF), Nigeria, Grant/Award Number: PTDF/ED/PHD/ASA/1342/18.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Delayed and altered post-fire recovery pathways of Mediterranean shrubland under 20-year drought manipulation

Increasing water deficits and severe droughts are expected to alter the dynamics of vegetation post-disturbance recovery by decreasing new recruitment and limiting growth in semi-arid Mediterranean ecosystems in future. However, which vegetation metrics will be shifted and how they respond over time are not clear, and the experimental evidence is still limited. Here we assessed the impacts of a long-term (20 years) experimental drought (-30% rainfall) on the pathways of vegetation metrics related to species richness, community composition and abundance dynamics for an early-successional Mediterranean shrubland. The results indicate that the pathways of vegetation metrics were differently affected by experimental drought. The abundance of Globularia alypum follows pathway 1 (altered mature state). Simpson diversity and abundance of Erica multiflora follow pathway 2 (delayed succession) while species richness, community abundance and shrub abundance follow pathway 3 (alternative stable state). There were no significances for the resilience to extremely dry years (the ratio between the performance after and before severe events) between control and drought treatment for all vegetation metric. But, their resilience for the metrics (except Simpson diversity) to extremely dry years in 2016-17 were significantly lower than that of 2001 and of 2006-07, possibly caused by the severe water deficits in 2016-17 at mature successional stage. Principal component analysis (PCA) shows that the first two principal components explained 72.3 % of the variance in vegetation metrics. The first axis was mainly related to the changes in community abundance, shrub abundance and species richness while the second axis was related to Simpson diversity and abundance of G. alypum and E. multiflora. Principal component scores along PC1 between control and drought treatment were significantly decreased by long-term experimental drought, but the scores along PC2 were not affected. Further research should focus on successional pathways in more water-deficit conditions in Mediterranean ecosystems and the consequences of changes in vegetation recovery pathways on ecosystem functions such as biomass accumulation and soil properties.Peer reviewe

Temperature and Tree Size Explain the Mean Time to Fall of Dead Standing Trees across Large Scales

Dead standing trees (DSTs) generally decompose slower than wood in contact with the forest floor. In many regions, DSTs are being created at an increasing rate due to accelerating tree mortality caused by climate change. Therefore, factors determining DST fall are crucial for predicting dead wood turnover time but remain poorly constrained. Here, we conduct a re-analysis of published DST fall data to provide standardized information on the mean time to fall (MTF) of DSTs across biomes. We used multiple linear regression to test covariates considered important for DST fall, while controlling for mortality and management effects. DSTs of species killed by fire, insects and other causes stood on average for 48, 13 and 19 years, but MTF calculations were sensitive to how tree size was accounted for. Species’ MTFs differed significantly between DSTs killed by fire and other causes, between coniferous and broadleaved plant functional types (PFTs) and between managed and unmanaged sites, but management did not explain MTFs when we distinguished by mortality cause. Mean annual temperature (MAT) negatively affected MTFs, whereas larger tree size or being coniferous caused DSTs to stand longer. The most important explanatory variables were MAT and tree size, with minor contributions of management and plant functional type depending on mortality cause. Our results provide a basis to improve the representation of dead wood decomposition in carbon cycle assessments

Use of a Webinar to Assess Fieldwork Educator Readiness to Provide Occupational Therapy Services and Supervise Students Through Telehealth

At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the spring of 2020, many school-based occupational therapy practitioners experienced intensified job demands including a rapid shift to telehealth service delivery. Additionally, academic fieldwork coordinators sought to find effective methods of delivering fieldwork education and supporting those involved, including the occupational therapy fieldwork educators and students, as they navigated the new context imposed by the pandemic. A study was completed using a synchronous webinar format and post-webinar survey to explore school-based occupational therapy practitioners’ perceptions of readiness to provide occupational therapy services through telehealth, the perception of preparedness of potential, current, and past fieldwork educators to supervise students during the pandemic, and the effectiveness of using a webinar format to deliver this education. Email invitations were sent to a list generated by academic fieldwork coordinators that included former, current, and potential occupational therapy fieldwork educators. Four hundred thirty-three international participants attended the 122 minute educational webinar presented through the Zoom video conference platform, with 80% of participants being school-based occupational therapists. The webinar contained three parts: two occupational therapists who addressed telehealth in practice, academic fieldwork coordinators who presented on the supervision of fieldwork students during telehealth service provision, and a panel discussion led by an active fieldwork educator and student who worked together during the time of initial COVID-19 restrictions. An electronic survey was administered through email at two weeks and three weeks post-webinar to measure participant telehealth webinar outcomes and assess the webinar impact on perceptions of feeling supported and future participation as a fieldwork educator. Forty-six participants returned the survey and descriptive statistics and content analysis were used to analyze survey results. Based on the results, participants agreed most with the telehealth service statements “I understand some of the barriers of providing telehealth services” (96%); “I better understand the process of providing telehealth services” (91%); and “I can identify what type of client would benefit from telehealth services” (85%). Survey results also indicated that 11% of participants strongly agreed or agreed to consider taking their first fieldwork students, 54% felt more supported as a fieldwork educator, and 57% strongly agreed or agreed that they could identify effective ways for fieldwork students to help support their clinical practice. Results also showed that a synchronous virtual webinar was perceived by participants as an effective method to deliver this education

Modelling crop yield and harvest index: the role of carbon assimilation and allocation parameters

Crop yield improvement during the last decades has relied on increasing the ratio of the economic organ to the total aboveground biomass, known as the harvest index (HI). In most crop models, HI is set as a parameter; this empirical approach does not consider that HI not only depends on plant genotype, but is also affected by the environment. An alternative is to simulate allocation mechanistically, as in the LPJ-GUESS crop model, which simulates HI based on daily growing conditions and the crop development stage. Simulated HI is critical for agricultural research due to its economic importance, but it also can validate the robust representation of production processes. However, there is a challenge to constrain parameter values globally for the allocation processes. Therefore, this paper aims to evaluate the sensitivity of yield and HI of wheat and maize simulated with LPJ-GUESS to eight production allocation-related parameters and identify the most suitable parameter values for global simulations. The nitrogen demand reduction after anthesis, the minimum leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio (C:N) and the range of leaf C:N strongly affected carbon assimilation and yield, while the retranslocation of labile stem carbon to grains and the retranslocation rate of nitrogen and carbon from vegetative organs to grains after anthesis mainly influenced HI. A global database of observed HI for both crops was compiled for reference to constrain simulations before calibrating parameters for yield against reference data. Two high- and low-yielding maize cultivars emerged from the calibration, whilst spring and winter cultivars were found appropriate for wheat. The calibrated version of LPJ-GUESS improved the simulation of yield and HI at the global scale for both crops, providing a basis for future studies exploring crop production under different climate and management scenarios