Testing the validity of the “value of a prevented fatality” (VPF) used to assess UK safety measures

AbstractThe “value of a prevented fatality” (VPF), the maximum amount that it is notionally reasonable to pay for a safety measure that will reduce by one the expected number of preventable premature deaths in a large population, is published by the UK Department for Transport (DfT). The figure, updated for changes in GDP per head, is used by the DfT, the Health and Safety Executive and other UK regulatory bodies as well as very widely in the process, nuclear and other industries as the standard by which to judge how much to spend to reduce harm to humans. The paper tests the validity of the 1999 study on which the VPF is based and finds that that study fails numerous tests of its validity. It is concluded that there is no evidential base for the VPF that has been used for many years in the UK and is still in standard use today. Given the difficulties evident in the interpretation of survey results, an urgent re-appraisal is needed of alternative statistical methodologies that can allow robust regulatory and industry safety decision making and, vitally, give adequate protection to the UK public and to those working in the UK's transport, process, nuclear and other industries

Possible Molecular States of Ds∗Dˉs∗D^{*}_s\bar{D}^{*}_s System and Y(4140)

The interpretation of Y(4140) as a $D^{*}_s\bar{D}^{*}_s$ molecule is studied dynamically in the one boson exchange approach, where $\sigma$, $\eta$ and $\phi$ exchange are included. Ten allowed $D^{*}_s\bar{D}^{*}_s$ states with low spin parity are considered, we find that the $J^{PC}=0^{++}$, $1^{+-}$, $0^{-+}$, $2^{++}$ and $1^{--}$ $D^{*}_s\bar{D}^{*}_s$ configurations are most tightly bound. We suggest the most favorable quantum numbers are $J^{PC}=0^{++}$ for Y(4140) as a $D^{*}_s\bar{D}^{*}_s$ molecule, however, $J^{PC}=0^{-+}$ and $2^{++}$ can not be excluded. We propose to search for the $1^{+-}$ and $1^{--}$ partners in the $J/\psi\eta$ and $J/\psi\eta'$ final states, which is an important test of the molecular hypothesis of Y(4140) and the reasonability of our model. The $0^{++}$ $B^{*}_s\bar{B}^{*}_s$ molecule is deeply bound, experimental search in the $\Upsilon(1S)\phi$ channel at Tevatron and LHC is suggested.Comment: 13 pages,2 figure

The nearly Newtonian regime in Non-Linear Theories of Gravity

The present paper reconsiders the Newtonian limit of models of modified gravity including higher order terms in the scalar curvature in the gravitational action. This was studied using the Palatini variational principle in [Meng X. and Wang P.: Gen. Rel. Grav. {\bf 36}, 1947 (2004)] and [Dom\'inguez A. E. and Barraco D. E.: Phys. Rev. D {\bf 70}, 043505 (2004)] with contradicting results. Here a different approach is used, and problems in the previous attempts are pointed out. It is shown that models with negative powers of the scalar curvature, like the ones used to explain the present accelerated expansion, as well as their generalization which include positive powers, can give the correct Newtonian limit, as long as the coefficients of these powers are reasonably small. Some consequences of the performed analysis seem to raise doubts for the way the Newtonian limit was derived in the purely metric approach of fourth order gravity [Dick R.: Gen. Rel. Grav. {\bf 36}, 217 (2004)]. Finally, we comment on a recent paper [Olmo G. J.: Phys. Rev. D {\bf 72}, 083505 (2005)] in which the problem of the Newtonian limit of both the purely metric and the Palatini formalism is discussed, using the equivalent Brans--Dicke theory, and with which our results partly disagree.Comment: typos corrected, replaced to match published versio

Considerations in relation to off-site emergency procedures and response for nuclear accidents

The operation of nuclear facilities has, fortunately, not led to many accidents with off-site consequences. However, it is well-recognised that should a large release of radioactivity occur, the effects in the surrounding area and population will be significant. These effects can be mitigated by developing emergency preparedness and response plans prior to the operation of the nuclear facility that can be exercised regularly and implemented if an accident occurs. This review paper details the various stages of a nuclear accident and the corresponding aspects of an emergency preparedness plan that are relevant to these stages, both from a UK and international perspective. The paper also details how certain aspects of emergency preparedness have been affected by the accident at Fukushima Dai-ichi and as a point of comparison how emergency management plans were implemented following the accidents at Three Mile Island 2 and Chernobyl. In addition, the UK’s economic costing model for nuclear accidents COCO-2, and the UK’s Level-3 Probabilistic Safety Assessment code “PACE” are introduced. Finally, the factors that affect the economic impact of a nuclear accident, especially from a UK standpoint, are described

Turnover and stability in the deep sea: Benthic foraminifera as tracers of Paleogene global change

Benthic foraminifera are the most common meiofaunal unicellular deep-sea biota, forming skeletons used as proxies for past climate change. We aim to increase understanding of past non-analog oceans and ecosystems by evaluating deep-sea benthic foraminiferal responses to global environmental changes over latest Cretaceous through Oligocene times (67–23 million years ago). Earth suffered an asteroid impact at the end of the Cretaceous (~instantaneous; 66 Ma), episodes of rapid global warming during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; ~56 Ma) and other hyperthermals (millennial timescales), followed by gradual, but punctuated cooling (timescales of hundred thousands of years) from a world without polar ice sheets to a world with a large Antarctic ice sheet. Here we present the first compilation of quantitative data on deep-sea foraminifera at sites in all the world''s oceans, aiming to build a first unique, uniform database that allows comparison of deep-sea faunal turnover across the uppermost Cretaceous through Paleogene. We document variability in space and time of benthic foraminiferal diversity: lack of extinction at the asteroid impact even though other marine and terrestrial groups suffered mass extinction; major extinction at the PETM followed by recovery and diversification; and gradual but fundamental turnover during gradual cooling and increase in polar ice volume (possibly linked to changes in the oceanic carbon cycle). High latitude cooling from ~45 Ma on, i.e., after the end of the Early Eocene Climate Optimum (53.2–49.2 Ma), may have made the middle Eocene a critical period of several millions of years of faunal turnover and establishment of latitudinal diversity gradients. This compilation thus illuminates the penetration of global change at very different rates into the largest and one of the most stable habitats on Earth, the deep sea with its highly diverse biota