A general Bayes theory of nested model comparisons

PhD ThesisWe propose a general Bayes analysis for nested model comparisons which does not suffer from Lindley's paradox. It does not use Bayes factors, but uses the posterior distribution of the likelihood ratio between the models evaluated at the true values of the nuisance parameters. This is obtained directly from the posterior distribution of the full model parameters. The analysis requires only conventional uninformative or flat priors, and prior odds on the models. The conclusions from the posterior distribution of the likelihood ratio are in general in conflict with Bayes factor conclusions, but are in agreement with frequentist likelihood ratio test conclusions. Bayes factor conclusions and those from the BIC are, even in simple cases, in conflict with conclusions from HPD intervals for the same parameters, and appear untenable in general. Examples of the new analysis are given, with comparisons to classical P-values and Bayes factors.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council

Near Infrared Surface Properties of the Two Intrinsically Brightest Minor Planets (90377) Sedna and (90482) Orcus

We present low resolution K band spectra taken at the Gemini 8 meter telescope of (90377) Sedna and (90482) Orcus (provisional designations 2003 VB12 and 2004 DW, respectively), currently the two minor planets with the greatest absolute magnitudes (i.e. the two most reflective minor planets). We place crude limits on the surface composition of these two bodies using a Hapke model for a wide variety of assumed albedos. The unusual minor planet (90377) Sedna was discovered on November 14, 2003 UT at roughly 90 AU with 1.6 times the heliocentric distance and perihelion distance of any other bound minor planet. It is the first solar system object discovered between the Kuiper Belt and the Oort Cloud, and may represent a transition population between the two. The reflectance spectrum of (90377) Sedna appears largely featureless at the current signal-to-noise ratio, suggesting a surface likely to be highly processed by cosmic rays. For large grain models (100 micron to 1 cm) we find that (90377) Sedna must have less than 70% surface fraction of water ice and less than 60% surface fraction of methane ice to 3 sigma confidence. Minor planet (90482) Orcus shows strong water ice absorption corresponding to less than 50% surface fraction for grain models 25 micron and larger. Orcus cannot have more than 30% of its surface covered by large (100 mm to 1 cm) methane grains to 3 sigma confidence.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

Land Use Changes in Europe. Processes of Change, Environmental Transformations and Future Patterns

Patterns of land use in Europe owe much to the boundaries set by the natural environment. The alterations imposed by man are still ultimately constrained by natural limitations of which climate pays a major role. Possible global climatic change, therefore, is likely to have a major effect on land use patterns and this is the first volume to describe the potential changes against the background of historical land use changes in Europe, the likely future land use patterns and the policy implications that are becoming evident in relation to feasible land use management strategies. This book covers a wide spectrum of issues: How will the characteristics of the land resource change? What are the implications of these changes on the environment? What policies need to be introduced to encourage sensitivity to environmental supply limitations? What is the scale of response that is needed to address these issues? The workshop that addressed these topics was sponsored by IIASA in association with the Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization of the Polish Academy of Sciences. The Stockholm Environment Institute collaborated in this and took on the main responsibility of producing this volume from the range of contributions at the workshop

Can we respond mindfully to distressing voices? A systematic review of evidence for engagement, acceptability, effectiveness and mechanisms of change for mindfulness-based interventions for people distressed by hearing voices

Adapted mindfulness-based interventions (MBIs) could be of benefit for people distressed by hearing voices. This paper presents a systematic review of studies exploring this possibility and we ask five questions: (1) Is trait mindfulness associated with reduced distress and disturbance in relation to hearing voices? (2) Are MBIs feasible for people distressed by hearing voices? (3) Are MBIs acceptable and safe for people distressed by hearing voices? (4) Are MBIs effective at reducing distress and disturbance in people distressed by hearing voices? (5) If effective, what are the mechanisms of change through which MBIs for distressing voices work? Fifteen studies were identified through a systematic search (n = 479). In relation to the five review questions: (1) data from cross-sectional studies showed an association between trait mindfulness and distress and disturbance in relation to hearing voices; (2) evidence from qualitative studies suggested that people distressed by hearing voices could engage meaningfully in mindfulness practice; (3) MBIs were seen as acceptable and safe; (4) there were no adequately powered RCTs allowing conclusions about effectiveness to be drawn; and (5) it was not possible to draw on robust empirical data to comment on potential mechanisms of change although findings from the qualitative studies identified three potential change processes; (i) reorientation of attention; (ii) decentring; and (iii) acceptance of voices. This review provided evidence that MBIs are engaging, acceptable, and safe. Evidence for effectiveness in reducing distress and disturbance is lacking however. We call for funding for adequately powered RCTs that will allow questions of effectiveness, maintenance of effects, mechanisms of change and moderators of outcome to be definitively addressed

Strategies to reduce nutrient pollution from manure management in China

As the demand for livestock products continues to increase in China, so too does the challenge of managing increasing quantities of manure. Urgent action is needed to control point source (housing, storage and processing) and diffuse (field application) pollution and improve the utilization of manure nutrients and organic matter. Here, we review strategies to improve management at each stage of the manure management chain and at different scales. Many strategies require infrastructure investment, e.g., for containment of all manure fractions. Engineering solutions are needed to develop advanced composting systems with lower environmental footprints and design more efficient nutrient stripping technologies. At the field-scale, there is an urgent need to develop a manure nutrient recommendation system that accounts for the range of manure types, cropping systems, soils and climates throughout China. At the regional scale, coordinated planning is necessary to promote recoupling of livestock and cropping systems, and reduce nutrient accumulation in regions with little available landbank, while minimizing the risk of pollution swapping from one region to another. A range of stakeholders are needed to support the step change and innovation required to improve manure management, reduce reliance on inorganic fertilizers, and generate new business opportunities

Enery Efficient Press and Sinter of Titanium Powder for Low-Cost Components in Vehicle Applications

This is the final technical report for the Department of Energy NETL project NT01931 Energy Efficient Press and Sinter of Titanium Powder for Low-Cost Components in Vehicle Applications. Titanium has been identified as one of the key materials with the required strength that can reduce the weight of automotive components and thereby reduce fuel consumption. Working with newly developed sources of titanium powder, Webster-Hoff will develop the processing technology to manufacture low cost vehicle components using the single press/single sinter techniques developed for iron based powder metallurgy today. Working with an automotive or truck manufacturer, Webster-Hoff will demonstrate the feasibility of manufacturing a press and sinter titanium component for a vehicle application. The project objective is two-fold, to develop the technology for manufacturing press and sinter titanium components, and to demonstrate the feasibility of producing a titanium component for a vehicle application. The lowest cost method for converting metal powder into a net shape part is the Powder Metallurgy Press and Sinter Process. The method involves compaction of the metal powder in a tool (usually a die and punches, upper and lower) at a high pressure (up to 60 TSI or 827 MPa) to form a green compact with the net shape of the final component. The powder in the green compact is held together by the compression bonds between the powder particles. The sinter process then converts the green compact to a metallurgically bonded net shape part through the process of solid state diffusion. The goal of this project is to expand the understanding and application of press and sinter technology to Titanium Powder applications, developing techniques to manufacture net shape Titanium components via the press and sinter process. In addition, working with a vehicle manufacturer, demonstrate the feasibility of producing a titanium component for a vehicle. This is not a research program, but rather a project to develop a process for press and sinter of net shape Titanium components. All of these project objectives have been successfully completed

The detection of Fermi AGN above 100 GeV using clustering analysis

The density-based clustering algorithm DBSCAN has been applied to the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) data set of Eγ ≥ 100 GeV events with |b| > 10°, in order to search for new very high energy (VHE) γ-ray sources. The clustering analysis returned 49 clusters, of which 21 correspond to already known VHE-emitting active galactic nuclei (AGN) within the TeVCat catalogue and a further 11 were found to be significant in a full Fermi analysis. Of these, two are previously detected Fermi VHE AGN, and nine represent new VHE sources consisting of six BL Lac objects, one blazar of unknown type and two unassociated sources. Comparing these, along with the VHE AGN RBS 0679 and RBS 0970 previously detected with Fermi-LAT, to the current populations of AGN detected with ground-based instruments and Fermi suggests that the VHE-emitting AGN discovered in this study are very similar to the TeVCat AGN and therefore further observations with ground-based imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes are recommended

Who the hell was that? Stories, bodies and actions in the world

This article explores a two-way relationship between stories and the experiential actions of bodies in the world. Through an autoethnographic approach, the article presents a series of interlinked story fragments in an effort to show and evoke a feel for the ways in which stories, bodies, and actions influence and shape each other over time. It offers some reflections on the experiences the stories portray from the perspective of a social constructionist conception of narrative theory and suggest that while stories exert a powerful influence on the actions of our bodies, our bodies intrude on or ‘talk back’ to this process because bodies have an existence beyond stories