Alternative statistical methods for estimating efficacy of interferon beta-1b for multiple sclerosis clinical trials

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the randomized study of interferon beta-1b (IFN beta-1b) for multiple sclerosis (MS), it has usually been evaluated the simple annual relapse rate as the study endpoint. This study aimed to investigate the performance of various regression models using information regarding the time to each recurrent event and considering the MS specific data generation process, and to estimate the treatment effect of a MS clinical trial data.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a simulation study with consideration of the pathological characteristics of MS, and applied alternative efficacy estimation methods to real clinical trial data, including 5 extended Cox regression models for time-to-event analysis, a Poisson regression model and a Poisson regression model with Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE). We adjusted for other important covariates that may have affected the outcome.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We compared the simulation results for each model. The hazard ratios of real data were estimated for each model including the effects of other covariates. The results (hazard ratios of high-dose to low-dose) of all models were approximately 0.7 (range, 0.613 - 0.769), whereas the annual relapse rate ratio was 0.714.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The precision of the treatment estimation was increased by application of the alternative models. This suggests that the use of alternative models that include recurrence event data may provide better analyses.</p

Magnetic resonance imaging as a potential surrogate for relapses in multiple sclerosis: a meta-analytic approach

Objective: The aim of this work was to evaluate whether the treatment effects on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) markers at the trial level were able to predict the treatment effects on relapse rate in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Methods: We used a pooled analysis of all the published randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis reporting data both on MRI variables and relapses. We extracted data on relapses and on MRI \u201cactive\u201d lesions. A regression analysis weighted on trial size and duration was performed to study the relation between the treatment effect on relapses and the treatment effect on MRI lesions. We validated the estimated relation on an independent set of clinical trials satisfying the same inclusion criteria but with a control arm other than placebo. Results: A set of 23 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis was identified, for a total of 63 arms, 40 contrasts, and 6,591 patients. A strong correlation was found between the effect on the relapses and the effect on MRI activity. The adjusted R2 value of the weighted regression line was 0.81. The regression equation estimated using the placebo-controlled trials gave a satisfactory prediction of the treatment effect on relapses when applied to the validation set. Interpretation: More than 80% of the variance in the effect on relapses between trials is explained by the variance in MRI effects. Smaller and shorter phase II studies based on MRI lesion end points may give indications also on the effect of the treatment on relapse end points