アジア開発途上経済における経済成長及び金融政策

政策分析プログラム / Policy Analysis Program政策研究大学院大学 / National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies論文審査委員: Roberto Leon-Gonzalez（主査）, Julen Esteban-Pretel, 池田 真介, 園部 哲史, 各務 和彦（千葉大学

Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies

This study investigates whether there is non-linear relationship between inflation and economic growth. To that aim we ask the following research question: (i) Is there a threshold level of inflation above which inflation significantly hurts economic growth in Asian countries, (ii) if there is one, how does this threshold affect Asian growth, and (iii) is the threshold value statistically significant

Towards the Creation of Customized Teaching Scenarios to Support Classroom Interaction

The integration of technology into STEM education has been shown to increase classroom interaction and thus has the potential to improve student's learning. However, current approaches are designed to support specific scenarios and therefore have predefined functional scopes and limitations. This results in lecturers having to adjust their preferred teaching strategy to the currently used system. Hence, our goal is to allow lecturers to customize the system's functionality to their strategy in mind. As a solution, we created a prototype called stARS (scenario-tailored Audience Response System) that builds on top of a uniform metamodel and allows lecturers to create customized teaching scenarios using a graphical editor. First user studies have confirmed that users with different modeling abilities are able to understand the metamodel and use the graphical editor. In order to demonstrate the intuitive use of our prototype, this paper presents concepts to support both the starting phase and modeling of complex scenarios. However, an implementation in real-life scenarios has to be conducted to show its applicability

Monetary Policy and the Real Economy: A Structural VAR Approach for Sri Lanka

経済学 / EconomicsThis paper attempts to identify the monetary policy indicator that better explains the Sri Lankan monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study also estimates how shocks stemming from foreign monetary policy and/or oil price affect domestic macroeconomic variables. To that end, we use a seven variable structural VAR model by utilizing monthly time series data from Sri Lanka covering the period from January 1978 to December 2011. Impulse response functions and variance decompositions are used to describe the relationships among variables. Our empirical findings suggest that the interest rate shocks play a significant and better role in explaining the movement of economic variables than monetary aggregate shocks or exchange rate shocks. Second, the targeting of reserve money is a better strategy for the Sri Lankan economy than a focus on narrow or broad money. Third, our findings clearly show that foreign monetary policy shocks and oil price shocks do not seem to affect the domestic economy. Finally, the inclusion of oil price in the SVAR model helped us overcome the puzzles that often appear in the existing literature in monetary economics.JEL Classification Codes: C32, E52, E58, F4

Inflation and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis for Asian Economies

経済学 / EconomicsThis paper investigates the existence of a threshold level for inflation and how any such level affects the growth of Asian economies. We used dynamic panel threshold growth regression, which allowed us to work with fixed effect and endogeneity issues. We observed a nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth for 32 Asian countries over the period 1980–2009. We detected an inflation threshold of approximately 5.43%, at a 1% level of significance. We found that inflation hurts growth when it exceeds 5.43% but has no effect below this level. Different estimation methods determined that the effect of inflation on growth is robust. Our findings may be useful to central banks as a guide for inflation targeting.JEL Classification Codes: C23, O40, E3

Visualization and analysis of wearable health data from COVID-19 patients

Effective visualizations were evaluated to reveal relevant health patterns from multi-sensor real-time wearable devices that recorded vital signs from patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Furthermore, specific challenges associated with wearable health data visualizations, such as fluctuating data quality resulting from compliance problems, time needed to charge the device and technical problems are described. As a primary use case, we examined the detection and communication of relevant health patterns visible in the vital signs acquired by the technology. Customized heat maps and bar charts were used to specifically highlight medically relevant patterns in vital signs. A survey of two medical doctors, one clinical project manager and seven health data science researchers was conducted to evaluate the visualization methods. From a dataset of 84 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, we extracted one typical COVID-19 patient history and based on the visualizations showcased the health history of two noteworthy patients. The visualizations were shown to be effective, simple and intuitive in deducing the health status of patients. For clinical staff who are time-constrained and responsible for numerous patients, such visualization methods can be an effective tool to enable continuous acquisition and monitoring of patients' health statuses even remotely

Robust Determinants of Growth in Asian Developing Economies: A Bayesian Panel Data Model Averaging Approach

This paper investigates the determinants of growth in the Asian developing economies. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in the context of a dynamic panel data growth regression to overcome the uncertainty over the choice of control variables. In addition, we use a Bayesian algorithm to analyze a large number of competing models. Among the explanatory variables, we include a non-linear function of inflation that allows for threshold effects. We use an unbalanced panel data set of 27 Asian developing countries over the period 1980–2009. Our empirical evidence on the determinants of growth suggests that an economy’s investment ratio is positively correlated to growth, whereas government consumption expenditure and terms of trade are negatively correlated. We also find evidence of a nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth, that is, inflation impedes economic growth when it exceeds 5.43% but does not have any significant effect on growth below that level.JEL Classification Codes: O40, E31, C11, C23http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/leon_gonzalez_roberto/http://id.nii.ac.jp/1295/00001123

Simple direct formation of self-assembled N-heterocyclic carbene monolayers on gold and their application in biosensing

CRL acknowledges the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (UK) for the funding of his PhD studentship (EP/M506631).The formation of organic films on gold employing N-heterocyclic carbenes (NHCs) has been previously shown to be a useful strategy for generating stable organic films. However, NHCs or NHC precursors typically require inert atmosphere and harsh conditions for their generation and use. Herein we describe the use of benzimidazolium hydrogen carbonates as bench stable solid precursors for the preparation of NHC films in solution or by vapour-phase deposition from the solid state. The ability to prepare these films by vapour-phase deposition permitted the analysis of the films by a variety of surface science techniques, resulting in the first measurement of NHC desorption energy (158±10 kJ mol−1) and confirmation that the NHC sits upright on the surface. The use of these films in surface plasmon resonance-type biosensing is described, where they provide specific advantages versus traditional thiol-based films.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies

Abstract: This paper investigates the existence of a threshold level for inflation and how any such level affects the growth of Asian economies. We used dynamic panel threshold growth regression, which allowed us to work with fixed effect and endogeneity issues. We observed a nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth for 32 Asian countries over the period 1980-2009. We detected an inflation threshold of approximately 5.43%, at a 1% level of significance. We found that inflation hurts growth when it exceeds 5.43% but has no effect below this level. Different estimation methods determined that the effect of inflation on growth is robust. Our findings may be useful to central banks as a guide for inflation targeting