Estimation of the economic impact of a bluetongue serotype 4 outbreak in Tunisia

IntroductionSince 1999, Tunisia has experienced multiple occurrences of Bluetongue (BT) outbreaks, leading to numerous reported cases of infection and mortality in flocks. The re-emergence of the disease in 2020 caused substantial economic losses in cattle, attributed to the incursion of serotype BTV-4.MethodsTo evaluate the economic impact of the recent BT episode, we conducted a retrospective study on outbreaks that occurred in Tunisia between August and November 2020, focusing on the impact at the owner’s level and its effects on both small ruminants and cattle. A total of 234 ruminant farms (sheep, cattle, and mixed) were randomly selected across Tunisian governorates and included in the study to estimate both the direct and indirect costs of these outbreaks.ResultsTotal costs were calculated as the sum of losses and expenditures resulting from the BT outbreaks. At the animal level, total losses were estimated to range between 116.280 and 207.086 TND for one infected ewe (€33.721 and 60.055). For one lactating cow, costs varied between 2,590.724 and 3,171.107 TND (€751.310 and 919.621). In cattle, exposure to BTV led to a daily unit milk yield decrease of 12.50 to 14.66 L over an average period of 5 months. Diseased sheep experienced weight loss ranging between 4 and 10 kg during the BT outbreaks. The total mean cost of the 2020 BT outbreak in Tunisian investigated farms was estimated at 1,935 million TND (million €561.15) (range: 1,489 and 2,474 million TND; 431.81 and million €717.46). The most influential costs of the total BT outbreaks were the decrease in milk yield, mortality, and veterinary treatment.DiscussionThis study gives valuable insights on the economic impact of the incursion of a new serotype of BT in a naive population in Tunisia. Considering the substantial costs incurred, it is imperative that this disease receives increased attention from stakeholders, including animal owners, veterinary services, practitioners, and decision-makers

Role of eco-climatic factors in the distribution of bluetongue in endemic areas in Tunisia

Background: Bluetongue (BT) is an important infectious, non-contagious, OIE-listed viral disease of domestic and wild ruminants. The disease is transmitted among susceptible animals by a few species of an insect vector in the genus Culicoides. Recently, during the fall of 2020 (September and October), a Bluetongue virus-4 epizootic marked the epidemiological situation in several delegations of Tunisia with clinical cases recorded in sheep and cattle.Aim: Determine the eco-climatic variables most likely associated with delegations reporting BT cases.Methods: A logistic regression model (LRM) was used to examine which eco-climatic variables were most likely associated with delegations reporting BT cases.Results: Based on the LRM, our findings demonstrated that the key factors contributing significantly to BT cases' distribution among delegations in Tunisia included day land surface temperatures (DLST), night land surface temperatures (NLST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). A positive correlation between sheep distribution and rainfallamounts was demonstrated. Statistical analysis focusing on the most affected delegations during the BT epidemic (the Sahel and the Centre of Tunisia) demonstrated that the epidemic situation seems to be a consequence of the combination of the following environmental parameters: NDVI with values ranging between 0.16 and 0.2, moderate rainfall 2–4-fold above the normal (10–50 mm) and DLST values between 32°C and 34°C in September.Conclusion: These findings suggest and develop a robust and efficient early warning surveillance program in risk areas based on eco-climatic risk factors

Culex pipiens distribution in Tunisia: Identification of suitable areas through Random Forest and MaxEnt approaches

Abstract Background Tunisia has experienced several West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks since 1997. Yet, there is limited information on the spatial distribution of the main WNV mosquito vector Culex pipiens suitability at the national level. Objectives In the present study, our aim was to predict and evaluate the potential and current distribution of Cx. pipiens in Tunisia. Methods To this end, two species distribution models were used, i.e. MaxEnt and Random Forest. Occurrence records for Cx. pipiens were obtained from adult and larvae sampled in Tunisia from 2014 to 2017. Climatic and human factors were used as predictors to model the Cx. pipiens geographical distribution. Mean decrease accuracy and mean decrease Gini indices were calculated to evaluate the importance of the impact of different environmental and human variables on the probability distribution of Cx. pipiens. Results Suitable habitats were mainly distributed next to oases, in the north and eastern part of the country. The most important predictor was the population density in both models. The study found out that the governorates of Monastir, Nabeul, Manouba, Ariana, Bizerte, Gabes, Medenine and Kairouan are at highest epidemic risk. Conclusions The potential distribution of Cx. pipiens coincides geographically with the observed distribution of the disease in humans in Tunisia. Our study has the potential for driving control effort in the fight against West Nile vector in Tunisia

Spatio-Temporal Identification of Areas Suitable for West Nile Disease in the Mediterranean Basin and Central Europe.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-transmitted Flavivirus belonging to the Japanese encephalitis antigenic complex of the Flaviviridae family. Its spread in the Mediterranean basin and the Balkans poses a significant risk to human health and forces public health officials to constantly monitor the virus transmission to ensure prompt application of preventive measures. In this context, predictive tools indicating the areas and periods at major risk of WNV transmission are of paramount importance. Spatial analysis approaches, which use environmental and climatic variables to find suitable habitats for WNV spread, can enhance predictive techniques. Using the Mahalanobis Distance statistic, areas ecologically most suitable for sustaining WNV transmission were identified in the Mediterranean basin and Central Europe. About 270 human and equine clinical cases notified in Italy, Greece, Portugal, Morocco, and Tunisia, between 2008 and 2012, have been considered. The environmental variables included in the model were altitude, slope, night time Land Surface Temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Enhanced Vegetation Index, and daily temperature range. Seasonality of mosquito population has been modelled and included in the analyses to produce monthly maps of suitable areas for West Nile Disease. Between May and July, the most suitable areas are located in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and North Cyprus. Summer/Autumn months, particularly between August and October, characterize the suitability in Italy, France, Spain, the Balkan countries, Morocco, North Tunisia, the Mediterranean coast of Africa, and the Middle East. The persistence of suitable conditions in December is confined to the coastal areas of Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Israel

Epizootic Haemorrhagic Disease Virus Serotype 8 in Tunisia, 2021

Epizootic haemorrhagic disease (EHD) is a Culicoides-borne viral disease caused by the epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) associated with clinical manifestations in domestic and wild ruminants, primarily white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and cattle (Bos taurus). In late September 2021, EHDV was reported in cattle farms in central/western Tunisia. It rapidly spread throughout the country with more than 200 confirmed outbreaks. We applied a combination of classical and molecular techniques to characterize the causative virus as a member of the serotype EHDV-8. This is the first evidence of EHDV- 8 circulation since 1982 when the prototype EHDV-8 strain was isolated in Australia. This work highlights the urgent need for vaccines for a range of EHDV serotypes

Study area: distribution of reported West Nile virus by country, region, and province since the 90s (light red polygons) and case locations included in the study between 2008–2012 (red points).

<p>Study area: distribution of reported West Nile virus by country, region, and province since the 90s (light red polygons) and case locations included in the study between 2008–2012 (red points).</p

West Nile Disease suitability maps (on a monthly basis) from May to December for the study area.

<p>From January to April, no areas suitable for WND were predicted (probability was less than 1%).</p

Validation of West Nile Disease presence prediction: receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in the k-fold (k = 7) iterations.

<p>Validation of West Nile Disease presence prediction: receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in the k-fold (k = 7) iterations.</p