Recent observed changes in severe storms over the United Kingdom and Iceland

Severe storms defined as 3-hourly pressure changes exceeding an extreme magnitude, were carefully manually quality-controlled and analyzed at stations in the UK and Iceland which had at least 45 years of digitized data. Iceland showed significant distribution differences between the periods before and after 1980 with a tendency towards less extreme severe events in latter decades. In contrast, the UK regions have tended towards larger magnitude events in recent decades, particularly in the more southerly regions. There has been a significant increase in the number of severe storms over the UK as a whole since the 1950s, however, this may not be unusual in longer-term variability. For both the UK and Iceland in winter these changes in severe storms appear to be related to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) but UK changes during October to December do not appear to be related to changes in the NAO

Causes of atmospheric temperature change 1960-2000: A combined attribution analysis

We investigate the causes of temperature change over the last four decades, both near the surface and in the free atmosphere, using a coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model, HadCM3, which requires no flux correction. We use an 'optimal detection' methodology to examine zonal mean temperatures near the surface and on nine diagnosed pressure levels throughout the atmosphere over the last four decades of the 20th Century. This produces a space-time-multivariable detection analysis which for the first time includes both solar and volcanic forcings in addition to anthropogenic forcings. Our results strengthen the case for an anthropogenic influence on climate. Unlike previous studies we attribute observed decadal-mean temperature changes both to anthropogenic emissions, and changes in stratospheric volcanic aerosols. The temperature response to change in solar irradiance is also detected but with a lower confidence than the other forcings

Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in situ sice the mid-nineteenth century: The HadSST2 dataset

A new flexible gridded dataset of sea surface temperature (SST) since 1850 is presented and its uncertainties are quantified. This analysis [the Second Hadley Centre Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadSST2)] is based on data contained within the recently created International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) database and so is superior in geographical coverage to previous datasets and has smaller uncertainties. Issues arising when analyzing a database of observations measured from very different platforms and drawn from many different countries with different measurement practices are introduced. Improved bias corrections are applied to the data to account for changes in measurement conditions through time. A detailed analysis of uncertainties in these corrections is included by exploring assumptions made in their construction and producing multiple versions using a Monte Carlo method. An assessment of total uncertainty in each gridded average is obtained by combining these bias-correction-related uncertainties with those arising from measurement errors and undersampling of intragrid box variability. These are calculated by partitioning the variance in grid box averages between real and spurious variability. From month to month in individual grid boxes, sampling uncertainties tend to be most important (except in certain regions), but on large-scale averages bias-correction uncertainties are more dominant owing to their correlation between grid boxes. Changes in large-scale SST through time are assessed by two methods. The linear warming between 1850 and 2004 was 0.52° ± 0.19°C (95% confidence interval) for the globe, 0.59° ± 0.20°C for the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.46° ± 0.29°C for the Southern Hemisphere. Decadally filtered differences for these regions over this period were 0.67° ± 0.04°C, 0.71° ± 0.06°C, and 0.64° ± 0.07°C

Human influence on the record-breaking cold event in January of 2016 in Eastern China

Anthropogenic influences are estimated to have reduced the likelihood of an extreme cold event in midwinter with the intensity equal to or stronger than the record of 2016 in eastern China by about two‐thirds

Learning through social spaces: migrant women and lifelong learning in post-colonial London

This article shows how migrant women engage in learning through social spaces. It argues that such spaces are little recognised, and that there are multiple ways in which migrant women construct and negotiate their informal learning through socialising with other women in different informal modes. Additionally, the article shows how learning is shaped by the socio-political, geographical and multicultural context of living in London, outlining ways in which gendered and racialised identities shape, construct and constrain participation in lifelong learning. The article shows that one way in which migrant women resist (post)colonial constructions of difference is by engaging in informal and non-formal lifelong learning, arguing that the benefits are (at least) two-fold. The women develop skills (including language skills) but also use their informal learning to develop what is referred to in this article as 'relational capital'. The article concludes that informal lifelong learning developed through social spaces can enhance a sense of belonging for migrant women

European climate response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the last half millennium

We analyse the winter and summer climatic signal following 15 major tropical volcanic eruptions over the last half millennium based on multi-proxy reconstructions for Europe. During the first and second post-eruption years we find significant continental scale summer cooling and somewhat drier conditions over Central Europe. In the Northern Hemispheric winter the volcanic forcing induces an atmospheric circulation response that significantly follows a positive NAO state connected with a significant overall warm anomaly and wetter conditions over Northern Europe. Our findings compare well with GCM studies as well as observational studies, which mainly cover the substantially shorter instrumental period and thus include a limited set of major eruptions

Attribution of extreme precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during May 2016

May 2016 was the third wettest May on record since 1961 over central eastern China based on station observations, with total monthly rainfall 40% more than the climatological mean for 1961–2013. Accompanying disasters such as waterlogging, landslides and debris flow struck part of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Causal influence of anthropogenic forcings on this event is investigated using the newly updated Met Office Hadley Centre system for attribution of extreme weather and climate events. Results indicate that there is a significant increase in May 2016 rainfall in model simulations relative to the climatological period, but this increase is largely attributable to natural variability. El Ni ̃no years have been found to be correlatedwith extreme rainfall in the Yangtze River region in previous studies—the strong El Ni ̃no of 2015–2016 may account for the extreme precipitation event in 2016. However, on smaller spatial scales we find that anthropogenic forcing has likely played a role in increasing the risk of extreme rainfall to the north of the Yangtze and decreasing it to the south

Making things happen : a model of proactive motivation

Being proactive is about making things happen, anticipating and preventing problems, and seizing opportunities. It involves self-initiated efforts to bring about change in the work environment and/or oneself to achieve a different future. The authors develop existing perspectives on this topic by identifying proactivity as a goal-driven process involving both the setting of a proactive goal (proactive goal generation) and striving to achieve that proactive goal (proactive goal striving). The authors identify a range of proactive goals that individuals can pursue in organizations. These vary on two dimensions: the future they aim to bring about (achieving a better personal fit within one’s work environment, improving the organization’s internal functioning, or enhancing the organization’s strategic fit with its environment) and whether the self or situation is being changed. The authors then identify “can do,” “reason to,” and “energized to” motivational states that prompt proactive goal generation and sustain goal striving. Can do motivation arises from perceptions of self-efficacy, control, and (low) cost. Reason to motivation relates to why someone is proactive, including reasons flowing from intrinsic, integrated, and identified motivation. Energized to motivation refers to activated positive affective states that prompt proactive goal processes. The authors suggest more distal antecedents, including individual differences (e.g., personality, values, knowledge and ability) as well as contextual variations in leadership, work design, and interpersonal climate, that influence the proactive motivational states and thereby boost or inhibit proactive goal processes. Finally, the authors summarize priorities for future researc

Near-term prediction of impact-relevant extreme temperature indices

A previous study of predictability of European temperature indices, with the Met Office Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) has revealed significant skill in predictions of 5/10-year average indices of summer mean and maximum 5-day average temperatures based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures for a large area of Europe, particularly in the Mediterranean. This study extends this work to indices relevant to high heat-related impacts on human health and maize yields in Europe,for use in future adaptation to increasingly frequent heatwave events. The DePreSys System to used to make decadal predictions of the number of days above critical thresholds for daily maximum and daily minimum Summer temperatures and the skill of these predictions are assessed compared to a preceeding observed climatology and persistence. We find skill beyond observed climatology and persistence for the indices studied for parts of Europe. Areas in the Mediterranean provide the most skillful decadal predictions and they are less skillful in Northern/Central Europe. By comparison to a parallel system, which is not initialised with observations, we find this skill is not due to initialisation but to the model forcing recreating the trend in these indices. The UK is also considered but it is determined this system is not appropriate for predicting these indices in the UK as they are not skillful beyond observed climatology

Reciprocity as a foundation of financial economics

This paper argues that the subsistence of the fundamental theorem of contemporary financial mathematics is the ethical concept ‘reciprocity’. The argument is based on identifying an equivalence between the contemporary, and ostensibly ‘value neutral’, Fundamental Theory of Asset Pricing with theories of mathematical probability that emerged in the seventeenth century in the context of the ethical assessment of commercial contracts in a framework of Aristotelian ethics. This observation, the main claim of the paper, is justified on the basis of results from the Ultimatum Game and is analysed within a framework of Pragmatic philosophy. The analysis leads to the explanatory hypothesis that markets are centres of communicative action with reciprocity as a rule of discourse. The purpose of the paper is to reorientate financial economics to emphasise the objectives of cooperation and social cohesion and to this end, we offer specific policy advice