Anthropogenic influences are estimated to have reduced the likelihood of an extreme cold event in midwinter with the intensity equal to or stronger than the record of 2016 in eastern China by about two‐thirds

Burke, C

Ciavarella, A

Dong, B

Dong, S

FreyChet, N

Lott, F

Qian, C

Tett, S

Wang, J

Yin, H

Cold winters in China are expected to become rarer in a warming climate. By employing high quality station observations and model simulations, we estimate that anthropogenic influences have reduced the occurrence probability of an extreme cold event with the intensity equal to or stronger than the record in 2016 by approximately two-thirds. Conversely, if there were no anthropogenic influences, the probability of an extreme cold

pentad in 2016 would be more than double. The return

period of such a record cold event is estimated to

have been extended by about 28 years due to human

influences. Our results are in line with McCusker et

al. (2016) and Sun et al. (2016) and agree with Trenary

et al. (2016) that despite severe cold surges and recordbreaking extreme cold-day occurrences during 2016,

winters have become warmer. Our results also imply

that even under human-induced warming, extreme

cold events can still occur as a result of natural variability, such as Arctic Oscillation, which was believed

to be responsible for the reporting event (Cheung et

al. 2016

Qian, C.

Wang, J.

Dong, H.

Yin, H.

Burke, C.

Ciavarella, A.

Dong, Buwen

Freychet, N.

Lott, F. C.

Tett, S. F. B.

Central Archive at the University of Reading

Human influence on the record-breaking cold event in January of 2016 in Eastern China

LJMU Research Online (Liverpool John Moores University)

Qian, Cheng

Wang, Jun

Dong, Siyan

Yin, Hong

Burke, Claire

Ciavarella, Andrew

Freychet, Nicolas

Lott, Fraser C

Tett, Simon

Edinburgh Research Explorer

English

Cheng Qian

Jun Wang

Siyan Dong

Hong Yin

Claire Burke

Andrew Ciavarella

Buwen Dong

Nicolas Freychet

Fraser C. Lott

Simon F. B. Tett

Crossref

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Human Influence on the Record-breaking Cold Event in January of 2016 in Eastern China

http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/74919/2/ch23.pdf

Human influence on the record-breaking cold event in January of 2016 in Eastern China

Abstract

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Central Archive at the University of Reading

LJMU Research Online (Liverpool John Moores University)

Edinburgh Research Explorer

Edinburgh Research Explorer

Crossref