Pensioner poverty over the next decade: what role for tax and benefit reform?

Recent falls in poverty amongst those aged 65 and over are unlikely to continue after 2007-08, even after the implementation of the proposals outlined in the Government's Pensions White Paper. This report looks at the prospects for pensioner poverty in England over the next decade. The authors find that that the proportion of those aged 65 and over living in poverty is set to remain at its current level - around one-in-five - between 2007-08 and 2017-18. This is despite the overall increase in the generosity of state pensions arising from the Pensions White Paper, and the fact that younger cohorts are expected to have more private pension income and higher employment rates at older ages than those preceding them

Flow-Structure Interaction in the Upper Airway: Motions of a Cantilevered Flexible Plate in Channel Flow with Flexible Walls

The present work seeks to elucidate the flow-structure dynamics of the upper airway so that improved clinical strategies for the alleviation of snoring and sleep apnoea can be developed and applied on an evidence basis. Analogue computational modelling, appropriately related to the anatomically correct system, is used. Hitherto, such modelling has been confined to flow in a rigidchannel to study flutter of the soft palate. Clinical evidence suggests that apneic events can involve combined motions and interactions of the soft palate and flexible walls of the pharynx. We model a flexible cantilevered plate (the soft-palate) mounted in a channel of square cross-section (the pharynx), the downstream side walls of which are flexible to capture deformation in airway collapse. Upstream of the flexible plate is a rigid plate (the hard palate) that spans the channel to permit airflow to be drawn from two inlets (oral and nasal). The commercial FSI software ADINA is used to construct the model and undertake the three-dimensional investigation. Results show that motions of the soft-palate have little effect on the deformation of the side walls. However, the amplitude and frequency of soft-palate vibrations are found to be strongly dependent upon side-wall stiffness and, hence, dynamics

Probabilistic analysis of the response of plates subjected to near-field blast loading

Accurate prediction of the response of structures subjected to close proximity blast loads is a pressing engineering concern; the landscape of global terror has shifted away from large and indiscriminate bombings towards much smaller and more targeted attacks (e.g. against critical infrastructure and/or transport). In such close-proximity blast events (in the so-called ‘nearfield’), interaction between the expanding detonation products and air shock gives rise to complex hydrodynamic features which introduce localised variations in the pressure field. The resultant loading (typically defined in terms of specific impulse since loading durations act on timescales considerably shorter than structural response) is therefore highly uncertain, and even nominally identical experiments produce loading distributions with a high degree of local variability. Current predictive approaches either grossly simplify or neglect entirely the inherent ‘fuzziness’ of nearfield blast loading, to the extent where it is currently unknown what effect this has on structural response, how sensitive plate structures are to uncertainties in loading distribution, and how this varies with plate properties and loading condition (e.g. charge mass and stand-off distance). This paper presents a numerical study aimed at answering these questions, where specific impulse distributions are probabilistically simulated with varying degrees of localised variations and mapped onto a range of different plates. This work aims to shed light on the fundamentally stochastic nature of close-proximity blast, with a view to implementing the findings in fast running engineering models for prediction of plate response under near-field blast loading

Which manufacturing industries and sectors are most vulnerable to Brexit?

When the UK leaves the EU, trade arrangements between the UK and EU will change. Most of the options for future UK‐EU relationships currently under discussion imply increased trade barriers, which will reduce trade and also have effects on output and prices. In this paper, we use a multi‐market partial equilibrium model to analyse the vulnerability of 122 manufacturing industries to Brexit. In all five Brexit scenarios we model, there is an overall reduction in UK manufacturing output. Output grows in some industries but at the expense of higher consumer and intermediate goods prices. High tech and medium–high tech sectors are more at risk of a decline in domestic production than lower tech sectors. In most areas of the country, demand for high‐skilled workers falls more than for medium and low‐skilled workers

25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration is inversely associated with serum MMP-9 in a cross-sectional study of African American ESRD patients

BACKGROUND: Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentration is inversely associated with peripheral arterial disease and hypertension. Vascular remodeling may play a role in this association, however, data relating vitamin D level to specific remodeling biomarkers among ESRD patients is sparse. We tested whether 25(OH)D concentration is associated with markers of vascular remodeling and inflammation in African American ESRD patients.METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study among ESRD patients receiving maintenance hemodialysis within Emory University-affiliated outpatient hemodialysis units. Demographic, clinical and dialysis treatment data were collected via direct patient interview and review of patients records at the time of enrollment, and each patient gave blood samples. Associations between 25(OH)D and biomarker concentrations were estimated in univariate analyses using Pearson's correlation coefficients and in multivariate analyses using linear regression models. 25(OH) D concentration was entered in multivariate linear regression models as a continuous variable and binary variable (<15 ng/ml and =15 ng/ml). Adjusted estimate concentrations of biomarkers were compared between 25(OH) D groups using analysis of variance (ANOVA). Finally, results were stratified by vascular access type.RESULTS: Among 91 patients, mean (standard deviation) 25(OH)D concentration was 18.8 (9.6) ng/ml, and was low (<15 ng/ml) in 43% of patients. In univariate analyses, low 25(OH) D was associated with lower serum calcium, higher serum phosphorus, and higher LDL concentrations. 25(OH) D concentration was inversely correlated with MMP-9 concentration (r = -0.29, p = 0.004). In multivariate analyses, MMP-9 concentration remained negatively associated with 25(OH) D concentration (P = 0.03) and anti-inflammatory IL-10 concentration positively correlated with 25(OH) D concentration (P = 0.04).CONCLUSIONS: Plasma MMP-9 and circulating 25(OH) D concentrations are significantly and inversely associated among ESRD patients. This finding may suggest a potential mechanism by which low circulating 25(OH) D functions as a cardiovascular risk factor

25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration is inversely associated with serum MMP-9 in a cross-sectional study of African American ESRD patients

BACKGROUND: Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentration is inversely associated with peripheral arterial disease and hypertension. Vascular remodeling may play a role in this association, however, data relating vitamin D level to specific remodeling biomarkers among ESRD patients is sparse. We tested whether 25(OH)D concentration is associated with markers of vascular remodeling and inflammation in African American ESRD patients.METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study among ESRD patients receiving maintenance hemodialysis within Emory University-affiliated outpatient hemodialysis units. Demographic, clinical and dialysis treatment data were collected via direct patient interview and review of patients records at the time of enrollment, and each patient gave blood samples. Associations between 25(OH)D and biomarker concentrations were estimated in univariate analyses using Pearson's correlation coefficients and in multivariate analyses using linear regression models. 25(OH) D concentration was entered in multivariate linear regression models as a continuous variable and binary variable (<15 ng/ml and =15 ng/ml). Adjusted estimate concentrations of biomarkers were compared between 25(OH) D groups using analysis of variance (ANOVA). Finally, results were stratified by vascular access type.RESULTS: Among 91 patients, mean (standard deviation) 25(OH)D concentration was 18.8 (9.6) ng/ml, and was low (<15 ng/ml) in 43% of patients. In univariate analyses, low 25(OH) D was associated with lower serum calcium, higher serum phosphorus, and higher LDL concentrations. 25(OH) D concentration was inversely correlated with MMP-9 concentration (r = -0.29, p = 0.004). In multivariate analyses, MMP-9 concentration remained negatively associated with 25(OH) D concentration (P = 0.03) and anti-inflammatory IL-10 concentration positively correlated with 25(OH) D concentration (P = 0.04).CONCLUSIONS: Plasma MMP-9 and circulating 25(OH) D concentrations are significantly and inversely associated among ESRD patients. This finding may suggest a potential mechanism by which low circulating 25(OH) D functions as a cardiovascular risk factor

Vascular phenotype in angiogenic and non-angiogenic lung non-small cell carcinomas

We have previously described a group of non-small cell lung carcinomas without morphological evidence of neo-angiogenesis. In these tumours neoplastic cells fill up the alveoli and the only vessels present appear to belong to the trapped alveolar septa. In the present study we have characterised the phenotype of the vessels present in these non-angiogenic tumours, in normal lung and in angiogenic non-small cell lung carcinomas. The vessels, identified by the expression of CD31, were scored as mature when expressing the epitope LH39 in the basal membrane and as newly formed when expressing αVβ3 on the endothelial cells and/or lacking LH39 expression. In the nine putative non-angiogenic cases examined, the vascular phenotype of all the vessels was the same as that of alveolar vessels in normal lung: LH39 positive and αVβ3 variable or negative. Instead in 104 angiogenic tumours examined, only a minority of vessels (mean 13.1%; range 0–60%) expressed LH39, while αVβ3 (in 45 cases) was strongly expressed on many vessels (mean 55.5%; range 5–90%). We conclude that in putative non-angiogenic tumours the vascular phenotype is that of normal vessels and there is no neo-angiogenesis. This type of cancer may be resistant to some anti-angiogenic therapy and different strategies need to be developed

Evaluation of the Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014: Literature Review

The author list for the literature review is provided below: Evaluation of the Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014: Literature Review Chapter authors: Introduction and methods Verity, F., Wallace, S., Llewellyn, M., Anderson, P. and Lyttleton-Smith, J. Well-being Anderson, P., Lyttleton-Smith, J., Kosnes, L., Read, S., Blackmore, H. and Williams, Z. Prevention and early intervention Verity, F., Read, S. and Richards, J. Co-production Andrews, N., Calder, G., Blanluet, N., Tetlow, S. and Wallace, S. Multi-agency Wallace, C., Orrell, A., Garthwaite, T., Tetlow, S. and Wallace, S. Voice and control Llewellyn, M., Saltus, R., Blackmore, H., Tetlow, S., Williams, Z. and Wallace, S. Financial and economic Phillips, C., Prowle, M., Tetlow, S. and Williams, Z. Service user and carer experiences under the Act Wallace, S.This report is a summary of the extensive review of the literature to inform the evaluation of the Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014. This document is a summary of the extensive review of the literature undertaken to inform the evaluation of the Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014 (hereafter referred to as ‘the Act’).1 The Welsh Government has commissioned a partnership between academics across four universities in Wales and expert advisers to deliver the evaluation. The Act sets out a government vision to produce ‘transformative changes’ in social service public policy, regulations, and delivery arrangements across Wales. It has 11 parts and is informed by five principles that set out a vision to produce transformative changes in public policy, regulations, and service delivery. Aligned to it are structures, processes, and codes of practice. The Evaluation of the Act – a study called IMPACT – is organised around each of the five principles together with a focus on the financial and economic aspects of the Act’s implementation. The approach to undertaking this evaluation research is to structure the evaluation by using the fundamental principles of the Act as the scaffolding. These principles are: • Well-being • Prevention • Co-Production • Multi-agency working • Voice and control There is also a focus on the financial and economic considerations of the implementation of the Act and this area constitutes the sixth evaluation study theme

Evaluation of the Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014: Literature Review

Evaluation of the Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014: Literature Review Edited by: Llewellyn, M., Verity, F. and Wallace, S. Chapter authors: Chapter 1: Evaluation Overview and Literature Methodology Verity, F., Wallace, S., Llewellyn, M., Anderson, P. and Lyttleton-Smith, J. Chapter 2: Well-being literature review Anderson, P., Lyttleton-Smith, J., Kosnes, L., Read, S., Blackmore, H. and Williams, Z. Chapter 3: Prevention and early intervention literature review Verity, F., Read, S. and Richards, J. Chapter 4: Co-production literature review Andrews, N., Calder, G., Blanluet, N., Tetlow, S. and Wallace, S. Chapter 5: Multi-agency literature review Wallace, C., Orrell, A., Garthwaite, T., Tetlow, S. and Wallace, S. Chapter 6: Voice and control literature review Llewellyn, M., Saltus, R., Blackmore, H., Tetlow, S., Williams, Z. and Wallace, S. Chapter 7: Financial and economic literature review Phillips, C., Prowle, M., Tetlow S. and Williams Z.Mae’r ddogfen yma hefyd ar gael yn Gymraeg. This document is also available in Welsh. OGL © Crown Copyright Digital ISBN 978-1-80038-948-9.This document is a summary of the extensive review of the literature to inform the evaluation of the Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014 (hereafter referred to as ‘the Act’).Welsh Governmen