Individualized Absolute Risk Calculations for Persons with Multiple Chronic Conditions: Embracing Heterogeneity, Causality, and Competing Events

Approximately 75% of adults over the age of 65 years are affected by two or more chronic medical conditions. We provide a conceptual justification for individualized absolute risk calculators for competing patient-centered outcomes (PCO) (i.e. outcomes deemed important by patients) and patient reported outcomes (PRO) (i.e. outcomes patients report instead of physiologic test results). The absolute risk of an outcome is the probability that a person receiving a given treatment will experience that outcome within a pre-defined interval of time, during which they are simultaneously at risk for other competing outcomes. This allows for determination of the likelihood of a given outcome with and without a treatment. We posit that there are heterogeneity of treatment effects among patients with multiple chronic conditions (MCC) largely depends on those coexisting conditions. We outline the development of an individualized absolute risk calculator for competing outcomes using propensity score methods that strengthen causal inference for specific treatments. Innovations include the key concept that any given outcome may or may not concur with any other outcome and that these competing outcomes do not necessarily preclude other outcomes. Patient characteristics and MCC will be the primary explanatory factors used in estimating the heterogeneity of treatment effects on PCO and PRO. This innovative method may have wide-spread application for determining individualized absolute risk calculations for competing outcomes. Knowing the probabilities of outcomes in absolute terms may help the burgeoning population of patients with MCC who face complex treatment decisions

Disability in activities of daily living, depression, and quality of life among older medical ICU survivors: a prospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Accurate measurement of quality of life in older ICU survivors is difficult but critical for understanding the long-term impact of our treatments. Activities of daily living (ADLs) are important components of functional status and more easily measured than quality of life (QOL). We sought to determine the cross-sectional associations between disability in ADLs and QOL as measured by version one of the Short Form 12-item Health Survey (SF-12) at both one month and one year post-ICU discharge.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data was prospectively collected on 309 patients over age 60 admitted to the Yale-New Haven Hospital Medical ICU between 2002 and 2004. Among survivors an assessment of ADL's and QOL was performed at one month and one-year post-ICU discharge. The SF-12 was scored using the version one norm based scoring with 1990 population norms. Multivariable regression was used to adjust the association between ADLs and QOL for important covariates.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our analysis of SF-12 data from 110 patients at one month post-ICU discharge showed that depression and ADL disability were associated with decreased QOL. Our model accounted for 17% of variability in SF12 physical scores (PCS) and 20% of variability in SF12 mental scores (MCS). The mean PCS of 37 was significantly lower than the population mean whereas the mean MCS score of 51 was similar to the population mean. At one year mean PCS scores improved and ADL disability was no longer significantly associated with QOL. Mortality was 17% (53 patients) at ICU discharge, 26% (79 patients) at hospital discharge, 33% (105 patients) at one month post ICU admission, and was 45% (138 patients) at one year post ICU discharge.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In our population of older ICU survivors, disability in ADLs was associated with reduced QOL as measured by the SF-12 at one month but not at one year. Although better markers of QOL in ICU survivors are needed, ADLs are a readily observable outcome. In the meantime, clinicians must try to offer realistic estimates of prognosis based on available data and resources are needed to assist ICU survivors with impaired ADLs who wish to maintain their independence. More aggressive diagnosis and treatment of depression in this population should also be explored as an intervention to improve quality of life.</p

Does Gender Impact Intensity of Care Provided to Older Medical Intensive Care Unit Patients?

Introduction. Women receive less aggressive critical care than men based on prior studies. No documented studies evaluate whether men and women are treated equally in the medical intensive care unit (MICU). The Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System-28 (TISS-28) has been used to examine gender differences in mixed ICU studies. However, it has not been used to evaluate equivalence of care in older MICU patients. We hypothesize that given nonsignificant, baseline health differences between genders at MICU admission, the level of care provided would be equivalent. Methods. Prospective cohort of 309 patients ≥60 years old in the MICU of an urban university teaching hospital. Explanatory variables were demographic data and baseline measures. Primary outcomes were TISS-28 scores and MICU interventions. We compare TISS-28 scores by gender using a statistical test of equivalence. Results. Women were older and had more chronic respiratory failure at MICU admission. Using equivalence limits of ±15% on gender-based scores of TISS-28, MICU interventions were equivalent. Supplementary analysis showed no statistically significant association between gender and mortality. Conclusions. In contrast with other reports from the cardiac critical care literature, as measured by the TISS-28, gender-based care delivered to older MICU patients in this cohort was equivalent

Erratum: Author Correction: Identification of genes required for eye development by high-throughput screening of mouse knockouts.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/s42003-018-0226-0.]

Identification of genes required for eye development by high-throughput screening of mouse knockouts.

Despite advances in next generation sequencing technologies, determining the genetic basis of ocular disease remains a major challenge due to the limited access and prohibitive cost of human forward genetics. Thus, less than 4,000 genes currently have available phenotype information for any organ system. Here we report the ophthalmic findings from the International Mouse Phenotyping Consortium, a large-scale functional genetic screen with the goal of generating and phenotyping a null mutant for every mouse gene. Of 4364 genes evaluated, 347 were identified to influence ocular phenotypes, 75% of which are entirely novel in ocular pathology. This discovery greatly increases the current number of genes known to contribute to ophthalmic disease, and it is likely that many of the genes will subsequently prove to be important in human ocular development and disease

Identification of genes required for eye development by high-throughput screening of mouse knockouts

International audienc

Modelling Vesicular Release at Hippocampal Synapses

We study local calcium dynamics leading to a vesicle fusion in a stochastic, and spatially explicit, biophysical model of the CA3-CA1 presynaptic bouton. The kinetic model for vesicle release has two calcium sensors, a sensor for fast synchronous release that lasts a few tens of milliseconds and a separate sensor for slow asynchronous release that lasts a few hundred milliseconds. A wide range of data can be accounted for consistently only when a refractory period lasting a few milliseconds between releases is included. The inclusion of a second sensor for asynchronous release with a slow unbinding site, and thereby a long memory, affects short-term plasticity by facilitating release. Our simulations also reveal a third time scale of vesicle release that is correlated with the stimulus and is distinct from the fast and the slow releases. In these detailed Monte Carlo simulations all three time scales of vesicle release are insensitive to the spatial details of the synaptic ultrastructure. Furthermore, our simulations allow us to identify features of synaptic transmission that are universal and those that are modulated by structure

Variability in energy expenditure is much greater in males than females

publishedVersionPaid open acces

Variability in energy expenditure is much greater in males than females

In mammals, trait variation is often reported to be greater among males than females. However, to date, mainly only morphological traits have been studied. Energy expenditure represents the metabolic costs of multiple physical, physiological, and behavioral traits. Energy expenditure could exhibit particularly high greater male variation through a cumulative effect if those traits mostly exhibit greater male variation, or a lack of greater male variation if many of them do not. Sex differences in energy expenditure variation have been little explored. We analyzed a large database on energy expenditure in adult humans (1494 males and 3108 females) to investigate whether humans have evolved sex differences in the degree of interindividual variation in energy expenditure. We found that, even when statistically comparing males and females of the same age, height, and body composition, there is much more variation in total, activity, and basal energy expenditure among males. However, with aging, variation in total energy expenditure decreases, and because this happens more rapidly in males, the magnitude of greater male variation, though still large, is attenuated in older age groups. Considerably greater male variation in both total and activity energy expenditure could be explained by greater male variation in levels of daily activity. The considerably greater male variation in basal energy expenditure is remarkable and may be explained, at least in part, by greater male variation in the size of energy-demanding organs. If energy expenditure is a trait that is of indirect interest to females when choosing a sexual partner, this would suggest that energy expenditure is under sexual selection. However, we present a novel energetics model demonstrating that it is also possible that females have been under stabilizing selection pressure for an intermediate basal energy expenditure to maximize energy available for reproduction. (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe