A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. III. Systematic Behaviors of Operational Solar Flare Forecasting Systems

A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (31 October – 02 November 2017), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan, to quantitatively compare the performance of today’s operational solar flare forecasting facilities. Building upon Paper I of this series (Barnes et al. 2016), in Paper II (Leka et al. 2019) we described the participating methods for this latest comparison effort, the evaluation methodology, and presented quantitative comparisons. In this paper we focus on the behavior and performance of the methods when evaluated in the context of broad implementation differences. Acknowledging the short testing interval available and the small number of methods available, we do find that forecast performance: 1) appears to improve by including persistence or prior flare activity, region evolution, and a human “forecaster in the loop”; 2) is hurt by restricting data to disk-center observations; 3) may benefit from long-term statistics, but mostly when then combined with modern data sources and statistical approaches. These trends are arguably weak and must be viewed with numerous caveats, as discussed both here and in Paper II. Following this present work, we present in Paper IV a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors of both types (i.e., misses and false alarms; Park et al. 2019). Hence, most importantly, with this series of papers we demonstrate the techniques for facilitating comparisons in the interest of establishing performance-positive methodologies

Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS

There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. [...] advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun-Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustained, and action needs to be taken before core capabilities are lost in the aging ensemble. We recommend advances through priority focus (1) on observation-based modeling throughout the Sun-Earth system, (2) on forecasts more than 12 hrs ahead of the magnetic structure of incoming coronal mass ejections, (3) on understanding the geospace response to variable solar-wind stresses that lead to intense geomagnetically-induced currents and ionospheric and radiation storms, and (4) on developing a comprehensive specification of space climate, including the characterization of extreme space storms to guide resilient and robust engineering of technological infrastructures. The roadmap clusters its implementation recommendations by formulating three action pathways, and outlines needed instrumentation and research programs and infrastructure for each of these. [...]Comment: In press for Advances of Space Research: an international roadmap on the science of space weather, commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS (63 pages and 4 figures

Coccidiosis in green turtles (chelonia mydas) in Australia: Pathogenesis, spatial and temporal distribution, and climate-related determinants of disease outbreaks

An epizootic of coccidiosis in free-ranging green turtles (Chelonia mydas) occurred in Australia in 1991 and the parasites were thought to be Caryospora cheloniae. Recurring outbreaks over an increased geographic range followed. We used medical records and temporal and spatial data of turtles diagnosed with coccidiosis between 1991 and 2014 to characterize the disease and factors associated with outbreaks. Most affected animals were subadults or older. Neurologic signs with intralesional cerebral coccidia were observed. Coccidia associated with inflammation and necrosis were predominantly found in the intestine, brain, kidney, and thyroid. Cases occurred in the spring and summer. Three major outbreaks (1991, 2002, and 2014) were concentrated in Port Stephens, New South Wales (NSW) and Moreton Bay, Queensland (QLD), but cases occurred as far south as Sydney, NSW. Coccidiosis cases were more likely during, or 1 mo prior to, El Niño–like events. Molecular characterization of the 18S rRNA locus of coccidia from tissues of 10 green turtles collected in 2002 and 2004 in Port Stevens and Sydney imply that they were Schellackia-like organisms. Two sequences were identified. The genotype 3 sequence was most common (in eight of 10 turtles), with 98.8% similarity to the 18S sequence of Schellackia orientalis. The Genotype 4 sequence was less common (in two of 10 turtles) with 99.7% similarity to the 18S sequence of the most common genotype (Genotype 1) detected in turtles from the 2014 Moreton Bay outbreak. Our study will help with the identification and management of future outbreaks and provide tools for identification of additional disease patterns in green turtles

Application usability levels: a framework for tracking project product progress

The space physics community continues to grow and become both more interdisciplinary and more intertwined with commercial and government operations. This has created a need for a framework to easily identify what projects can be used for specific applications and how close the tool is to routine autonomous or on-demand implementation and operation. We propose the Application Usability Level (AUL) framework and publicizing AULs to help the community quantify the progress of successful applications, metrics, and validation efforts. This framework will also aid the scientific community by supplying the type of information needed to build off of previously published work and publicizing the applications and requirements needed by the user communities. In this paper, we define the AUL framework, outline the milestones required for progression to higher AULs, and provide example projects utilizing the AUL framework. This work has been completed as part of the activities of the Assessment of Understanding and Quantifying Progress working group which is part of the International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment

Reinforcing Stereotypes? Race and Local Television News Coverage of Congress

Despite the increasingly diverse legislative records of African-American members of Congress, much of the population continues to believe that African-American legislators are interested only in minority issues. If African-American House members are becoming more like their nonblack colleagues, then why do many citizens continue to hold these stereotypes about African-American legislators? Copyright (c) 2004 by the Southwestern Social Science Association.