The equivalence of three latent class models and ML estimators

The purpose of this letter is to show the equivalence of three latent class models; the switching regression model with endogenous switching and a latent outcome (the binary Roy model), the probit model with a systematically misclassified dependent variable, and a trivariate probit model with partial observability. The probit model with measurement error is an enhanced version of existing models which allows for the potential correlation between error terms. Establishing this connection, we hope, will help a researcher working on one of these classes of estimators to benefit from the literature and software related to other families

Dirty hands on troubled waters: Sanitation, access to water and child health in Ethiopia

In this paper, we investigate the impact of access to drinking water sources and sanitation facilities on the incidence of diarrheal diseases among children below 5 years of age in Ethiopia using the propensity score matching technique with a polychotomous treatment variable. We find that among the water sources traditionally considered as improved, only water piped into dwelling, yard or plot leads to a large percentage point reduction in diarrhea incidence. The other water sources, generally believed as clean, are not effective in reducing diarrhea even compared with some of the unimproved water sources. We also find that some unimproved water sources and sanitation facilities are less inferior than they are believed to be. These results suggest that the traditional way of categorizing different types of improved and unimproved water sources and sanitation facilities into a dichotomous variable, “improved” or “unimproved”, could be misleading as it masks the heterogeneous effects of the water sources and the sanitation facilities

Estimation of a selectivity model with misclassified selection

Despite the great interest in models of self-selection and models with misclassification, there have been few studies combining the two. Notable exceptions are given by McCarthy, Millimet, and Roy and Shiu. None of these models have been developed in a contingent valuation setting that we are interested in. The goal of this note is to add to this literature by presenting a model for estimating willingness to pay using data collected through a contingent valuation survey. We examine the case of a selectivity model in which the outcome equation is interval censored but the decision indicator is not observed

Adversity in Infancy and Childhood Cognitive Development: Evidence From Four Developing Countries

Objectives: We investigated whether adverse experiences at age 1 (AE-1) affect the level of and change in cognition during childhood using harmonized data from four developing countries.Methods: Data included children born in 2001/2002 and were followed longitudinally in 2006/2007 and in 2009/2010 by Young Lives study in Ethiopia, India, Peru, and Vietnam. Childhood cognition was measured using the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT) at ages 5 (PPVT-5) and 8 (PPVT-8). We also examined the effect on a change in cognition between age 5–8 (PPVT-Change). The AE-1 scores were constructed using survey responses at age 1. The ordinary least squares regression was used for estimation.Results: We found that children with higher adversities as infants had lower cognition scores at ages 5 and 8. The change in cognition between the two ages was also generally smaller for those with severe adversities at infancy. The negative association between adversities and childhood cognition was strongest for India.Conclusion: The results provide policy relevant information for mitigation of undesirable consequences of early life adversities through timely interventions

Dengue type 1 viruses circulating in humans are highly infectious and poorly neutralized by human antibodies

The four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes are mosquito-borne flaviviruses of humans. The interactions between DENVs and the human host that lead to asymptomatic, mild, or severe disease are poorly understood, in part, because laboratory models are poor surrogates for human DENV disease. Virologists are interested in how the properties of DENVs replicating in people compare with virions propagated on laboratory cell lines, which are widely used for research and vaccine development. Using clinical samples from a DENV type 1 epidemic in Sri Lanka and new ultrasensitive assays, we compared the properties of DENVs in human plasma and after one passage on laboratory cell lines. DENVs in plasma were 50- to 700-fold more infectious than cell culture-grown viruses. DENVs produced by laboratory cell lines were structurally immature and hypersensitive to neutralization by human antibodies compared with DENVs circulating in people. Human plasma and cell culture-derived virions had identical genome sequences, indicating that these phenotypic differences were due to the mature state of plasma virions. Several dengue vaccines are under development. Recent studies indicate that vaccine-induced antibodies that neutralized DENVs in cell culture assays were not sufficient for protecting people from DENV infections. Our results about structural differences between DENVs produced in humans versus cell lines may be key to understanding vaccine failure and developing better models for vaccine evaluation

Modulation of apoptosis in human hepatocellular carcinoma (HepG2 cells) by a standardized herbal decoction of Nigella sativa seeds, Hemidesmus indicus roots and Smilax glabra rhizomes with anti- hepatocarcinogenic effects

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A standardized poly-herbal decoction of <it>Nigella sativa </it>seeds, <it>Hemidesmus indicus </it>roots and <it>Smilax glabra </it>rhizomes used traditionally in Sri Lanka for cancer therapy has been demonstrated previously, to have anti-hepatocarcinogenic potential. Cytotoxicity, antioxidant activity, anti-inflammatory activity, and up regulation of p53 and p21 activities are considered to be some of the possible mechanisms through which the above decoction may mediate its anti-hepatocarcinogenic action. The main aim of the present study was to determine whether apoptosis is also a major mechanism by which the decoction mediates its anti-hepatocarcinogenic action.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Evaluation of apoptosis in HepG2 cells was carried out by (a) microscopic observations of cell morphology, (b) DNA fragmentation analysis, (c) activities of caspase 3 and 9, as well as by (d) analysis of the expression of pro-apoptotic (Bax) and anti-apoptotic (Bcl-2) proteins associated with cell death.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results demonstrated that in HepG2 cells, the decoction can induce (a) DNA fragmentation and (b) characteristic morphological changes associated with apoptosis (nuclear condensation, membrane blebbing, nuclear fragmentation and apoptotic bodies). The decoction could also, in a time and dose dependent manner, up regulate the expression of the pro-apoptotic gene <it>Bax </it>and down regulate expression of anti-apoptotic <it>Bcl-2 </it>gene (as evident from RT-PCR analysis, immunohistochemistry and western blotting). Further, the decoction significantly (<it>p </it>< .001) enhanced the activities of caspase-3 and caspase-9 in a time and dose dependent manner.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Overall findings provide confirmatory evidence to demonstrate that the decoction may mediate its reported anti-hepatocarcinogenic effect, at least in part, through modulation of apoptosis.</p

Ambulatory function in spinal muscular atrophy: Age-related patterns of progression

Individuals with spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) type 3 are able to walk but they have weakness, gait impairments and fatigue. Our primary study objective was to examine longitudinal changes in the six-minute walk test (6MWT) and to evaluate whether age and SMA type 3 subtype are associated with decline in ambulatory function. Data from three prospective natural history studies were used. Seventy-three participants who performed the 6MWT more than once, at least 6 months apart, were included; follow-up ranged from 0.5–9 years. Only data from patients who completed the 6MWT were included. The mean age of the participants was 13.5 years (range 2.6–49.1), with 52 having disease onset before age 3 years (type 3A). At baseline, type 3A participants walked a shorter distance on average (257.1 m) than type 3B participants (390.2 m) (difference = 133.1 m, 95% confidence interval [CI] 71.8–194.3, p < 0.001). Distance walked was weakly associated with age (r = 0.25, p = 0.04). Linear mixed effects models were used to estimate the mean annual rate of change. The overall mean rate of change was -7.8 m/year (95% CI -13.6 –-2.0, p = 0.009) and this did not differ by subtype (type 3A: -8.5 m/year, type 3B: -6.6 m/year, p = 0.78), but it did differ by age group (< 6: 9.8 m/year; 6–10: -7.9 m/year; 11–19: -20.8 m/year; ≥ 20: -9.7 m/year; p = 0.005). Our results showed an overall decline on the 6MWT over time, but different trajectories were observed depending on age. Young ambulant SMA patients gain function but in adolescence, patients lose function. Future clinical trials in ambulant SMA patients should consider in their design the different trajectories of ambulatory function over time, based on age

Characterization of pulmonary function in 10â18 year old patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy

Pulmonary function loss in patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is progressive and leads to pulmonary insufficiency. The purpose of this study in 10â18 year old patients with DMD is the assessment of the inter-correlation between pulmonary function tests (PFTs), their reliability and the association with the general disease stage measured by the Brooke score. Dynamic PFTs (peak expiratory flow [PEF], forced vital capacity [FVC], forced expiratory volume in one second [FEV1]) and maximum static airway pressures (MIP, MEP) were prospectively collected from 64 DMD patients enrolled in the DELOS trial (ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01027884). Baseline PEF percent predicted (PEF%p) was <80% and patients had stopped taking glucocorticoids at least 12 months prior to study start. At baseline PEF%p, FVC%p and FEV1%p correlated well with each other (Spearman's rho: PEF%pâFVC%p: 0.54; PEF%pâFEV1%p: 0.72; FVC%pâFEV1%p: 0.91). MIP%p and MEP%p correlated well with one another (MIP%pâMEP%p: 0.71) but less well with PEF%p (MIP%pâPEF%p: 0.40; MEP%pâPEF%p: 0.41) and slightly better with FVC%p (MIP%pâFVC%p: 0.59; MEP%pâFVC%p: 0.74). The within-subject coefficients of variation (CV) for successive measures were 6.97% for PEF%p, 6.69% for FVC%p and 11.11% for FEV1%p, indicating that these parameters could be more reliably assessed compared to maximum static airway pressures (CV for MIP%p: 18.00%; MEP%p: 15.73%). Yearly rates of PFT decline (placebo group) were larger in dynamic parameters (PEF%p: â8.9% [SD 2.0]; FVC%p: â8.7% [SD 1.1]; FEV1%p: â10.2% [SD 2.0]) than static airway pressures (MIP%p: â4.5 [SD 1.3]; MEP%p: â2.8 [SD 1.1]). A considerable drop in dynamic pulmonary function parameters was associated with loss of upper limb function (transition from Brooke score category 4 to category 5). In conclusion, these findings expand the understanding of the reliability, correlation and evolution of different pulmonary function measures in DMD patients who are in the pulmonary function decline phase

Idebenone reduces respiratory complications in patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy

In Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), progressive loss of respiratory function leads to restrictive pulmonary disease and places patients at significant risk for severe respiratory complications. Of particular concern are ineffective cough, secretion retention and recurrent respiratory tract infections. In a Phase 3 randomized controlled study (DMD Long-term Idebenone Study, DELOS) in DMD patients 10–18 years of age and not taking concomitant glucocorticoid steroids, idebenone (900 mg/day) reduced significantly the loss of respiratory function over a 1-year study period. In a post-hoc analysis of DELOS we found that more patients in the placebo group compared to the idebenone group experienced bronchopulmonary adverse events (BAEs): placebo: 17 of 33 patients, 28 events; idebenone: 6 of 31 patients, 7 events. The hazard ratios (HR) calculated “by patient” (HR 0.33, p = 0.0187) and for “all BAEs” (HR 0.28, p = 0.0026) indicated a clear idebenone treatment effect. The overall duration of BAEs was 222 days (placebo) vs. 82 days (idebenone). In addition, there was also a difference in the use of systemic antibiotics utilized for the treatment of BAEs. In the placebo group, 13 patients (39.4%) reported 17 episodes of antibiotic use compared to 7 patients (22.6%) reporting 8 episodes of antibiotic use in the idebenone group. Furthermore, patients in the placebo group used systemic antibiotics for longer (105 days) compared to patients in the idebenone group (65 days). This post-hoc analysis of DELOS indicates that the protective effect of idebenone on respiratory function is associated with a reduced risk of bronchopulmonary complications and a reduced need for systemic antibiotics

Suitability of external controls for drug evaluation in Duchenne muscular dystrophy

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the suitability of real-world data (RWD) and natural history data (NHD) for use as external controls in drug evaluations for ambulatory Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). METHODS: The consistency of changes in the 6-minute walk distance (Δ6MWD) was assessed across multiple clinical trial placebo arms and sources of NHD/RWD. Six placebo arms reporting 48-week Δ6MWD were identified via literature review and represented 4 sets of inclusion/exclusion criteria (n = 383 patients in total). Five sources of RWD/NHD were contributed by Universitaire Ziekenhuizen Leuven, DMD Italian Group, The Cooperative International Neuromuscular Research Group, ImagingDMD, and the PRO-DMD-01 study (n = 430 patients, in total). Mean Δ6MWD was compared between each placebo arm and RWD/NHD source after subjecting the latter to the inclusion/exclusion criteria of the trial for baseline age, ambulatory function, and steroid use. Baseline covariate adjustment was investigated in a subset of patients with available data. RESULTS: Analyses included ∼1,200 patient-years of follow-up. Differences in mean Δ6MWD between trial placebo arms and RWD/NHD cohorts ranged from -19.4 m (i.e., better outcomes in RWD/NHD) to 19.5 m (i.e., worse outcomes in RWD/NHD) and were not statistically significant before or after covariate adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: We found that Δ6MWD was consistent between placebo arms and RWD/NHD subjected to equivalent inclusion/exclusion criteria. No evidence for systematic bias was detected. These findings are encouraging for the use of RWD/NHD to augment, or possibly replace, placebo controls in DMD trials. Multi-institution collaboration through the Collaborative Trajectory Analysis Project rendered this study feasible