A "Politically Robust" Experimental Design for Public Policy Evaluation, with Application to the Mexican Universal Health Insurance Program

We develop an approach to conducting large scale randomized public policy experiments intended to be more robust to the political interventions that have ruined some or all parts of many similar previous efforts. Our proposed design is insulated from selection bias in some circumstances even if we lose observations; our inferences can still be unbiased even if politics disrupts any two of the three steps in our analytical procedures; and other empirical checks are available to validate the overall design. We illustrate with a design and empirical validation of an evaluation of the Mexican Seguro Popular de Salud (Universal Health Insurance) program we are conducting. Seguro Popular, which is intended to grow to provide medical care, drugs, preventative services, and financial health protection to the 50 million Mexicans without health insurance, is one of the largest health reforms of any country in the last two decades. The evaluation is also large scale, constituting one of the largest policy experiments to date and what may be the largest randomized health policy experiment ever.Governmen

Maternal Blood, Plasma, and Breast Milk Lead: Lactational Transfer and Contribution to Infant Exposure

Background: Human milk is a potential source of lead exposure. Yet lactational transfer of lead from maternal blood into breast milk and its contribution to infant lead burden remains poorly understood. Objectives: We explored the dose–response relationships between maternal blood, plasma, and breast milk to better understand lactational transfer of lead from blood and plasma into milk and, ultimately, to the breastfeeding infant. Methods: We measured lead in 81 maternal blood, plasma, and breast milk samples at 1 month postpartum and in 60 infant blood samples at 3 months of age. Milk-to-plasma (M/P) lead ratios were calculated. Multivariate linear, piecewise, and generalized additive models were used to examine dose–response relationships between blood, plasma, and milk lead levels. Results: Maternal lead levels (mean ± SD) were as follows: blood: 7.7 ± 4.0 μg/dL; plasma: 0.1 ± 0.1 μg/L; milk: 0.8 ± 0.7 μg/L. The average M/P lead ratio was 7.7 (range, 0.6–39.8) with 97% of the ratios being > 1. The dose–response relationship between plasma lead and M/P ratio was nonlinear (empirical distribution function = 6.5, p = 0.0006) with the M/P ratio decreasing by 16.6 and 0.6 per 0.1 μg/L of plasma lead, respectively, below and above 0.1 μg/L plasma lead. Infant blood lead level (3.4 ± 2.2 μg/dL) increased by 1.8 μg/dL per 1 μg/L milk lead (p < 0.0001, R2 = 0.3). Conclusions: The M/P ratio for lead in humans is substantially higher than previously reported, and transfer of lead from plasma to milk may be higher at lower levels of plasma lead. Breast milk is an important determinant of lead burden among breastfeeding infants. Citation: Ettinger AS, Roy A, Amarasiriwardena CJ, Smith DR, Lupoli N, Mercado-García A, Lamadrid-Figueroa H, Tellez-Rojo MM, Hu H, Hernández-Avila M. 2014. Maternal blood, plasma, and breast milk lead: lactational transfer and contribution to infant exposure. Environ Health Perspect 122:87–92; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.130718

Relationships between lead biomarkers and diurnal salivary cortisol indices in pregnant women from Mexico City: a cross-sectional study

Background: Lead (Pb) exposure during pregnancy may increase the risk of adverse maternal, infant, or childhood health outcomes by interfering with hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal-axis function. We examined relationships between maternal blood or bone Pb concentrations and features of diurnal cortisol profiles in 936 pregnant women from Mexico City. Methods: From 2007–11 we recruited women from hospitals/clinics affiliated with the Mexican Social Security System. Pb was measured in blood (BPb) during the second trimester and in mothers’ tibia and patella 1-month postpartum. We characterized maternal HPA-axis function using 10 timed salivary cortisol measurements collected over 2-days (mean: 19.7, range: 14–35 weeks gestation). We used linear mixed models to examine the relationship between Pb biomarkers and cortisol area under the curve (AUC), awakening response (CAR), and diurnal slope. Results: After adjustment for confounders, women in the highest quintile of BPb concentrations had a reduced CAR (Ratio: −13%; Confidence Interval [CI]: −24, 1, p-value for trend < 0.05) compared to women in the lowest quintile. Tibia/patella Pb concentrations were not associated with CAR, but diurnal cortisol slopes were suggestively flatter among women in the highest patella Pb quantile compared to women in the lowest quantile (Ratio: 14%; CI: −2, 33). BPb and bone Pb concentrations were not associated with cortisol AUC. Conclusions: Concurrent blood Pb levels were associated with cortisol awakening response in these pregnant women and this might explain adverse health outcomes associated with Pb. Further research is needed to confirm these results and determine if other environmental chemicals disrupt hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal-axis function during pregnancy

Association between Prenatal Lead Exposure and Blood Pressure in Children

Background: Lead exposure in adults is associated with hypertension. Altered prenatal nutrition is associated with subsequent risks of adult hypertension, but little is known about whether prenatal exposure to toxicants, such as lead, may also confer such risks. Objectives: We investigated the relationship of prenatal lead exposure and blood pressure (BP) in 7- to 15-year-old boys and girls. Methods: We evaluated 457 mother–child pairs, originally recruited for an environmental birth cohort study between 1994 and 2003 in Mexico City, at a follow-up visit in 2008–2010. Prenatal lead exposure was assessed by measurement of maternal tibia and patella lead using in vivo K-shell X-ray fluorescence and cord blood lead using atomic absorption spectrometry. BP was measured by mercury sphygmomanometer with appropriate-size cuffs. Results: Adjusting for relevant covariates, maternal tibia lead was significantly associated with increases in systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) in girls but not in boys (p-interaction with sex = 0.025 and 0.007 for SBP and DBP, respectively). Among girls, an interquartile range increase in tibia lead (13 $\mu$g/g) was associated with 2.11-mmHg [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69, 3.52] and 1.60-mmHg (95% CI: 0.28, 2.91) increases in SBP and DBP, respectively. Neither patella nor cord lead was associated with child BP. Conclusions: Maternal tibia lead, which reflects cumulative environmental lead exposure and a source of exposure to the fetus, is a predisposing factor to higher BP in girls but not boys. Sex-specific adaptive responses to lead toxicity during early-life development may explain these differences

Early life risk factors of motor, cognitive and language development: a pooled analysis of studies from low/middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVE:To determine the magnitude of relationships of early life factors with child development in low/middle-income countries (LMICs). DESIGN:Meta-analyses of standardised mean differences (SMDs) estimated from published and unpublished data. DATA SOURCES:We searched Medline, bibliographies of key articles and reviews, and grey literature to identify studies from LMICs that collected data on early life exposures and child development. The most recent search was done on 4 November 2014. We then invited the first authors of the publications and investigators of unpublished studies to participate in the study. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES:Studies that assessed at least one domain of child development in at least 100 children under 7 years of age and collected at least one early life factor of interest were included in the study. ANALYSES:Linear regression models were used to assess SMDs in child development by parental and child factors within each study. We then produced pooled estimates across studies using random effects meta-analyses. RESULTS:We retrieved data from 21 studies including 20 882 children across 13 LMICs, to assess the associations of exposure to 14 major risk factors with child development. Children of mothers with secondary schooling had 0.14 SD (95% CI 0.05 to 0.25) higher cognitive scores compared with children whose mothers had primary education. Preterm birth was associated with 0.14 SD (-0.24 to -0.05) and 0.23 SD (-0.42 to -0.03) reductions in cognitive and motor scores, respectively. Maternal short stature, anaemia in infancy and lack of access to clean water and sanitation had significant negative associations with cognitive and motor development with effects ranging from -0.18 to -0.10 SDs. CONCLUSIONS:Differential parental, environmental and nutritional factors contribute to disparities in child development across LMICs. Targeting these factors from prepregnancy through childhood may improve health and development of children

The risk of Ascaris lumbricoides infection in children as an environmental health indicator to guide preventive activities in Caparaó and Alto Caparaó, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To develop an environmental health indicator for use as a basis for developing preventive measures against Ascaris lumbricoides infection in children from the rural municipalities of Caparaó and Alto Caparaó, in Minas Gerais, Brazil. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted between May and September 1998 among 1171 children under 14 years of age living in 588 dwellings selected from 11 communities. Trained interviewers used a questionnaire to identify risk factors for infection (socioeconomic, sanitation and hygiene variables) and collected stool samples from each child for parasitological tests. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of A. lumbricoides infection was 12.2%. The results showed the protective effects of availability of water in the washbasin and better hygiene, sanitation and socioeconomic status; the interactive effect of crowding was five times larger in households without water in the washbasin than in those having water. There was a statistically significant association between infection and children's age. CONCLUSION: The environmental health indicator, which incorporated the most significant biological, environmental and social factors associated with the risk of A. lumbricoides infection in children from these communities, should contribute to the development of surveillance tools and health protection measures in this population

Associations between levels of fine particulate and emergency visits for pneumonia and other respiratory illnesses among children in

ABSTRACT Recent evidence has implicated the fine fraction of particulate as the major contributor to the increase in mortality and morbidity related to particulate ambient levels. We therefore evaluated the impact of daily variation of ambient PM 2.5 and other pollutants on the number of daily respiratory-related emergency visits (REVs) to a large pediatric hospita

Urate and Nonanoate Mark the Relationship between Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Intake and Blood Pressure in Adolescent Girls: A Metabolomics Analysis in the ELEMENT Cohort

We sought to identify metabolites that mark the relationship of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake with adiposity and metabolic risk among boys (n = 114) and girls (n = 128) aged 8&#8722;14 years. We conducted the analysis in three steps: (1) linear regression to examine associations of SSB intake (quartiles) with adiposity, glycemia, lipids, and blood pressure (BP); (2) least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to identify SSB-associated metabolites from an untargeted dataset of 938 metabolites; and (3) linear regression to determine whether SSB-related metabolites are also associated with adiposity and metabolic risk. In girls, SSB intake was associated with marginally higher BP (Q2 vs, Q1: 1.11 [&#8722;3.90, 6.13], Q3 vs. Q1: 1.16 [&#8722;3.81, 6.13], Q4 vs. Q1: 4.65 [&#8722;0.22, 9.53] mmHg systolic blood pressure (SBP); P-trend = 0.07). In boys, SSB intake corresponded with higher C-peptide insulin resistance (Q2 vs. Q1: 0.06 [&#8722;0.06, 0.19], Q3 vs. Q1: 0.01 [&#8722;0.12, 0.14], Q4 vs. Q1: 0.17 [0.04, 0.30] ng/mL; P-trend = 0.03) and leptin (P-trend = 0.02). LASSO identified 6 annotated metabolites in girls (5-methyl-tetrohydrofolate, phenylephrine, urate, nonanoate, deoxyuridine, sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine) and 3 annotated metabolites in boys (2-piperidinone, octanoylcarnitine, catechol) associated with SSB intake. Among girls, urate and nonanoate marked the relationship of SSB intake with BP. None of the SSB-associated metabolites were related to health outcomes in boys

Associations of the infancy body mass index peak with anthropometry and cardiometabolic risk in Mexican adolescents

Background: Early-life growth dynamics are associated with future health. Little is known regarding timing and magnitude of the infancy body mass index (BMI) peak with adiposity and metabolic biomarkers during adolescence. Aim: To examine associations of the infancy BMI peak with anthropometry and cardiometabolic risk during peripuberty. Methods: Among 163 ELEMENT participants, this study estimated age and magnitude of the infancy BMI peak from eight anthropometric measurements from birth–36 months using Newton’s Growth Models, an acceleration-based process model. Associations were examined of the infancy milestones with anthropometry and cardiometabolic risk at 8–14 years using linear regression models that accounted for maternal calcium supplementation and age; child’s birthweight, sex, and age; and the other infancy milestone. Results: Median age at the infancy BMI peak was 9.6 months, and median peak BMI was 16.5 kg/m2. Later age and larger magnitude of the peak predicted higher BMI z-score, waist circumference, and skinfold thicknesses; i.e. each 1 month of age at peak and each 1 kg/m2 of peak BMI corresponded with 0.04 (0.01–0.07) and 0.33 (0.17–0.48) units of higher BMI z-score, respectively. Later age at peak was also a determinant of worse glycaemia and higher blood pressure. Conclusion: Later age and larger magnitude of the infancy BMI peak are associated with higher adiposity at 8–14 years of age. Later age but not magnitude of the BMI peak are related to a worse cardiometabolic profile during peripuberty