Low‐carbon transition risks for finance

The transition to a low‐carbon economy will entail a large‐scale structural change. Some industries will have to expand their relative economic weight, while other industries, especially those directly linked to fossil fuel production and consumption, will have to decline. Such a systemic shift may have major repercussions on the stability of financial systems, via abrupt asset revaluations, defaults on debt, and the creation of bubbles in rising industries. Studies on previous industrial transitions have shed light on the financial transition risks originating from rapidly rising “sunrise” industries. In contrast, a similar conceptual understanding of risks from declining “sunset” industries is currently lacking. We substantiate this claim with a critical review of the conceptual and historical literature, which also shows that most literature either examines structural change in the real economy, or risks to financial stability, but rarely both together. We contribute to filling this research gap by developing a consistent theoretical framework of the drivers, transmission channels, and impacts of the phase‐out of carbon‐intensive industries on the financial system and on the feedback from the financial system into the rest of the economy. We also review the state of play of policy aiming to protect the financial system from transition risks and spell out research implications

Genetic Diversity in the SIR Model of Pathogen Evolution

We introduce a model for assessing the levels and patterns of genetic diversity in pathogen populations, whose epidemiology follows a susceptible-infected-recovered model (SIR). We model the population of pathogens as a metapopulation composed of subpopulations (infected hosts), where pathogens replicate and mutate. Hosts transmit pathogens to uninfected hosts. We show that the level of pathogen variation is well predicted by analytical expressions, such that pathogen neutral molecular variation is bounded by the level of infection and increases with the duration of infection. We then introduce selection in the model and study the invasion probability of a new pathogenic strain whose fitness (R0(1+s)) is higher than the fitness of the resident strain (R0). We show that this invasion probability is given by the relative increment in R0 of the new pathogen (s). By analyzing the patterns of genetic diversity in this framework, we identify the molecular signatures during the replacement and compare these with those observed in sequences of influenza A

Outcome of a risk-related therapeutic strategy used prospectively in a population-based study of Hodgkin's lymphoma in adolescents

The aim was to assess outcome in a population-based cohort of adolescents with Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) diagnosed in the UK's northern region over a 10-year period. Among a population of 3.09 million, 55 of 676 patients (8%) diagnosed with HL were aged 13–19. Seven had nodular lymphocyte-predominant HL, 48 classical HL (cHL). Of the latter, 36 were ⩾16 years. Application of the Scottish and Newcastle Lymphoma Group (SNLG) prognostic index meant 21 patients were considered high risk (index ⩾0.5). They received PVACEBOP multi-agent chemotherapy as primary therapy. Standard risk patients (SNLG index <0.5) were treated with standard ChlVPP or ABVD chemotherapy±radiotherapy. Scottish and Newcastle Lymphoma Group indexing is not valid for patients under 16. Twelve patients therefore received UKCCSG protocols (n=8), ABVD plus radiotherapy (n=2), or PVACEBOP (n=2). Forty-six patients with cHL (96%) achieved complete remission. Seven patients relapsed but all entered complete remission after salvage therapy. Five patients died: three of HL, one in an accident and one of disseminated varicella complicating cystic fibrosis. Five- and 10-year overall survival was 93 and 86%, respectively; disease-specific survival was 95 and 92%. The data suggest that older adolescents with high-risk HL require intensive protocols as primary therapy to secure optimal outcome

Patterns of care and survival for adolescents and young adults with acute leukaemia – a population-based study

We report a population-based study of patterns of care and survival for people with acute leukaemia diagnosed at age 15–29 years during 1984–94 in regions of England and Wales covered by specialist leukaemia registries. There were 879 patients: 417 with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and 462 with acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). For ALL, actuarial survival rates were 43% at 5 years after diagnosis and 37% at 10 years. Survival improved significantly between 1984–88 and 1989–94 for those aged 15–19 at diagnosis. Patients entered in national clinical trials and those not entered had similar survival rates. Survival rates were similar at teaching and non-teaching hospitals and at hospitals treating different numbers of study patients per year. For AML, survival rates were 42% at 5 years after diagnosis and 39% at 10 years. Survival improved significantly between 1984–88 and 1989–94. Patients entered in the Medical Research Council AML10 trial had a higher survival rate than those who were in the earlier AML9 trial. Survival did not vary with category of hospital. We conclude that survival has improved for adolescents and young adults with acute leukaemia but that there is at present no evidence that centralized treatment results in a survival benefit for patients in this age group. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Tumour genomic and microenvironmental heterogeneity as integrated predictors for prostate cancer recurrence: a retrospective study

Clinical prognostic groupings for localised prostate cancers are imprecise, with 30–50% of patients recurring after image-guided radiotherapy or radical prostatectomy. We aimed to test combined genomic and microenvironmental indices in prostate cancer to improve risk stratification and complement clinical prognostic factors

Identifying associations between diabetes and acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure: an analysis of the LUNG SAFE database

Background: Diabetes mellitus is a common co-existing disease in the critically ill. Diabetes mellitus may reduce the risk of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), but data from previous studies are conflicting. The objective of this study was to evaluate associations between pre-existing diabetes mellitus and ARDS in critically ill patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure (AHRF). Methods: An ancillary analysis of a global, multi-centre prospective observational study (LUNG SAFE) was undertaken. LUNG SAFE evaluated all patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) over a 4-week period, that required mechanical ventilation and met AHRF criteria. Patients who had their AHRF fully explained by cardiac failure were excluded. Important clinical characteristics were included in a stepwise selection approach (forward and backward selection combined with a significance level of 0.05) to identify a set of independent variables associated with having ARDS at any time, developing ARDS (defined as ARDS occurring after day 2 from meeting AHRF criteria) and with hospital mortality. Furthermore, propensity score analysis was undertaken to account for the differences in baseline characteristics between patients with and without diabetes mellitus, and the association between diabetes mellitus and outcomes of interest was assessed on matched samples. Results: Of the 4107 patients with AHRF included in this study, 3022 (73.6%) patients fulfilled ARDS criteria at admission or developed ARDS during their ICU stay. Diabetes mellitus was a pre-existing co-morbidity in 913 patients (22.2% of patients with AHRF). In multivariable analysis, there was no association between diabetes mellitus and having ARDS (OR 0.93 (0.78-1.11); p = 0.39), developing ARDS late (OR 0.79 (0.54-1.15); p = 0.22), or hospital mortality in patients with ARDS (1.15 (0.93-1.42); p = 0.19). In a matched sample of patients, there was no association between diabetes mellitus and outcomes of interest. Conclusions: In a large, global observational study of patients with AHRF, no association was found between diabetes mellitus and having ARDS, developing ARDS, or outcomes from ARDS. Trial registration: NCT02010073. Registered on 12 December 2013

Periodontitis induced by bacterial infection exacerbates features of Alzheimer\u27s disease in transgenic mice.

Periodontitis is a localized infectious disease caused by periodontopathic bacteria,such as Porphyromonas gingivalis. Recently, it has been suggested that bacterial infections may contribute to the onset and the progression of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). However, we do not have any evidence about a causative relationship between periodontitis and AD. In this study, we investigated by using a transgenic mouse model of AD whether periodontitis evoked by P. gingivalis modulates the pathological features of AD. Cognitive function was significantly impaired in periodontitis-induced APP-Tg mice, compared to that in control APP-Tg mice. Levels of Amiloid β (Aβ) deposition, Aβ40, and Aβ42 in both the hippocampus and cortex were higher in inoculated APP-Tg mice than in control APP-Tg mice. Furthermore, levels of IL-1β and TNF-α in the brain were higher in inoculated mice than in control mice. The levels of LPS were increased in the serum and brain of P. gingivalis-inoculated mice. P. gingivalis LPS-induced production of Aβ40 and Aβ42 in neural cell cultures and strongly enhanced TNF-α and IL-1β production in a culture of microglial cells primed with Aβ. Periodontitis evoked by P. gingivalismay exacerbate brain Aβ deposition, leading to enhanced cognitive impairments, by a mechanism that involves triggering brain inflammation