Extreme events in the Mediterranean area: A mixed deterministic-statistical approach

Statistical inference suffers for severe limitations when applied to extreme meteo-climatic events. A fundamental theorem proposes a constructive theory for a “universal” distribution law (the Generalized Extreme Value distribution) of extremes. Use of this theorem and of its derivations is nowadays quite common. However, when applying it, the selected events should be real extremes. In practical applications a major source of errors is the fact that there is no strict criterion for selecting extremes and, in order to “fatten” the statistical sample very “mild” selection criteria are often used. The theorem in question applies to stationary processes. When a trend is introduced, inference becomes even more problematic. Experience shows that any available a priori knowledge concerning the system can play a fundamental role in the analysis, in particular if it lowers the dimensionality of the parameter space to be explored. The inference procedures serve, then, the purpose of testing the reliability of inductive hypothesis, rather than proving them. Within the above general context, analysis of the hypothesis that the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events in the Mediterranean area may be changing is proposed. The analysis is based on a combined deterministic-statistical approach: dynamical analysis of intense perturbations is combined with statistical techniques in order to try to formulate the problem in such a way that meaningful conclusion may be achieved

A multiscale approach for precipitation verification applied to the FORALPS case studies

International audienceMultiscale methods, such as the power spectrum, are suitable diagnostic tools for studying the second order statistics of a gridded field. For instance, in the case of Numerical Weather Prediction models, a drop in the power spectrum for a given scale indicates the inability of the model to reproduce the variance of the phenomenon below the correspondent spatial scale. Hence, these statistics provide an insight into the real resolution of a gridded field and must be accurately known for interpolation and downscaling purposes. In this work, belonging to the EU INTERREG IIIB Alpine Space FORALPS project, the power spectra of the precipitation fields for two intense rain events, which occurred over the north-eastern alpine region, have been studied in detail. A drop in the power spectrum at the shortest scales (about 30 km) has been found, as well as a strong matching between the precipitation spectrum and the spectrum of the orography. Furthermore, it has also been shown how the spectra help understand the behavior of the skill scores traditionally used in Quantitative Precipitation Forecast verification, as these are sensitive to the amount of small scale detail present in the fields

The mobility of Atlantic baric depressions leading to intense precipitation over Italy: a preliminary statistical analysis

International audienceThe speed of Atlantic surface depressions, occurred during the autumn and winter seasons and that lead to intense precipitation over Italy from 1951 to 2000, was investigated. Italy was divided into 5 regions as documented in previous climatological studies (based on Principal Component Analysis). Intense precipitation events were selected on the basis of in situ rain gauge data and clustered according to the region that they hit. For each intense precipitation event we tried to identify an associated surface depression and we tracked it, within a large domain covering the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions, from its formation to cyclolysis in order to estimate its speed. "Depression speeds" were estimated with 6-h resolution and clustered into slow and non-slow classes by means of a threshold, coinciding with the first quartile of speed distribution and depression centre speeds were associated with their positions. Slow speeds occurring over an area including Italy and the western Mediterranean basin showed frequencies higher than 25%, for all the Italian regions but one. The probability of obtaining by chance the observed more than 25% success rate was estimated by means of a binomial distribution. The statistical reliability of the result is confirmed for only one region. For Italy as a whole, results were confirmed at 95% confidence level. Stability of the statistical inference, with respect to errors in estimating depression speed and changes in the threshold of slow depressions, was analysed and essentially confirmed the previous results

Does autonomic neuropathy play a role in erythropoietin regulation in non-proteinuric Type 2 diabetic patients?

Aims Erythropoietin (EPO)-deficient anaemia has been described in Type 1 diabetic patients with both severe autonomic neuropathy (AN) and proteinuria. This study was aimed at distinguishing between the effects of AN and nephropathy on haemoglobin and EPO levels in Type 2 diabetic patients at an early stage of diabetic nephropathy. Methods In 64 Type 2 diabetic patients (age 52 +/- 10 years, duration 10 +/- 9 years) without overt nephropathy and other causes of anaemia or EPO deficit, we assessed cardiovascular tests of AN, 24-h blood pressure (BP) monitoring, urinary albumin excretion rate (UAE), a full blood count, and serum EPO. Results Although the Type 2 diabetic patients with AN did not show differences in haemoglobin and EPO when compared with patients without AN, the presence of haemoglobin < 13 g/dl was associated with the presence of AN (chi(2)= 3.9, P < 0.05) and of postural hypotension (chi(2)= 7.8, P < 0.05). In a multiple regression analysis including as independent variables gender, body mass index, duration of diabetes, smoking, creatinine, 24-h UAE, 24-h diastolic BP, ferritin, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and autonomic score, we found that the only variables independently related to haematocrit were autonomic score, ferritin and erythrocyte sedimentation rate. Finally, the physiological inverse relationship between EPO and haemoglobin present in a control group of 42 non-diabetic non-anaemic subjects was completely lost in Type 2 diabetic patients. The slopes of the regression lines between EPO and haemoglobin of the control subjects and the Type 2 diabetic patients were significantly different (t = 14.4, P < 0.0001). Conclusion This study documents an early abnormality of EPO regulation in Type 2 diabetes before clinical nephropathy and points to a contributory role of AN in EPO dysregulation

Unsatisfying forecast of a Mediterranean cyclone: a verification study employing state-of-the-art techniques

International audienceOn 16?17 November 2000, a relatively intense precipitation event on the north-western Italy was heavily underestimated, mainly due to shifting error, by three operational 10-km limited area models (LAMs) which differ about basic equations, domain size, and parameterisation schemes. The scope of the work is to investigate possible common error-sources independent from the single model, in particular the effect of initialisation. Thus, the complex evolution over the western Mediterranean Sea of the cyclone responsible for the event was investigated. Several objective and subjective verification techniques have been employed to check one of the LAMs' forecast against the available observations (precipitation from rain gauge and retrieved from ground-based radar, and satellite-retrieved atmospheric humidity patterns). Despite a clear statement is not achieved, results indicate that high sensitivity to the initial conditions, and the inadequacy of the observational network on the southern Mediterranean area, can play a major role in producing the forecast shifting error on the target area

Two-year long safety and efficacy of deferasirox film-coated tablets in patients with thalassemia or lower/intermediate risk MDS: phase 3 results from a subset of patients previously treated with deferasirox in the ECLIPSE study

Background: Despite the proven benefits of iron chelation therapy (ICT) in the management of chronic iron overload and related complications, compliance to long-term ICT is challenging. Results from the ECLIPSE study, an open-label, randomized, multicenter, 2-arm, phase 2 study evaluated the safety of deferasirox dispersible tablet and film-coated tablet (FCT) formulations in patients with transfusion-dependent thalassemia (TDT) or very low, low, or intermediate risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) treated over 24 weeks. Methods: The aim of the current study (a 2-year, open-label, multicenter, single-arm, phase 3 study) is to evaluate the long-term safety and efficacy of deferasirox FCT in a subset of patients with TDT or lower/intermediate-risk MDS treated for 2 years after the completion of 24 weeks of treatment with deferasirox in the ECLIPSE phase 2 study. Results: Of 53 patients enrolled, 34 (64.2%) completed treatment and study. Adverse events (AEs) reported in most patients (similar to 70%) were of mild to moderate severity. Headache and diarrhea were the most frequently (&gt; 25%) reported AEs. None of the serious AEs (including 1 death) were considered treatment related. No new safety signal was identified, and long-term safety of deferasirox FCT was consistent with the known safety profile of deferasirox. No major concerns associated with gastrointestinal tolerability, renal safety, or hematological abnormalities (thrombocytopenia/neutropenia) were reported during the 2 years. Patients receiving deferasirox FCT had a treatment compliance (by pill count) of similar to 90% and persistence (continuous use for &gt;= 30 days) of &gt; 95%. Reduction in serum ferritin level was almost consistent starting from week 2 across all post-baseline time points (relative reduction: month 6, 19%; month 12, 29%). Conclusions: The results from this 2-year interventional study suggest that the recommended dosing of deferasirox FCT, with better tolerability, palatability, and compliance, offers a favorable option of ICT for long-term management of iron overload and associated complications in TDT

POSEIDON: An integrated system for analysis and forecast of hydrological, meteorological and surface marine fields in the Mediterranean area

The Mediterranean area is characterized by relevant hydrological, meteorological and marine processes developing at horizontal space-scales of the order of 1–100 km. In the recent past, several international programs have been addressed (ALPEX, POEM, MAP, etc.)to “resolving” the dynamics of such motions. Other projects (INTERREG-Flooding, MEDEX, etc.)are at present being developed with special emphasis on catastrophic events with major impact on human society that are, quite often, characterized in their manifestation by processes with the above-mentioned scales of motion. In the dynamical evolution of such events, however, equally important is the dynamics of interaction of the local (and sometimes very damaging)pro cesses with others developing at larger scales of motion. In fact, some of the most catastrophic events in the history of Mediterranean countries are associated with dynamical processes covering all the range of space-time scales from planetary to local. The Prevision Operational System for the mEditerranean basIn and the Defence of the lagOon of veNice (POSEIDON)is an integrated system for the analysis and forecast of hydrological, meteorological, oceanic fields specifically designed and set up in order to bridge the gap between global and local scales of motion, by modeling explicitly the above referred to dynamical processes in the range of scales from Mediterranean to local. The core of POSEIDON consists of a “cascade” of numerical models that, starting from global scale numerical analysisforecast, goes all the way to very local phenomena, like tidal propagation in Venice Lagoon. The large computational load imposed by such operational design requires necessarily parallel computing technology: the first model in the cascade is a parallelised version of BOlogna Limited Area Model (BOLAM)running on a Quadrics 128 processors computer (also known as QBOLAM). POSEIDON, developed in the context of a co-operation between the Italian Agency for New technologies, Energy and Environment (Ente per le Nuove tecnologie, l’Energia e l’Ambiente, ENEA)and the Italian Agency for Environmental Protection and Technical Services (Agenzia per la Protezione dell’Ambiente e per i Servizi Tecnici, APAT), has become operational in 2000 and we are presently in the condition of drawing some preliminary conclusions about its performance. In the paper we describe the scientific concepts that were at the basis of the original planning, the structure of the system, its operational cycle and some preliminary scientific and technical evaluations after two years of experimentation

The Bariloche Neutron Physics Group Current Activities

Our group has evolved around a small accelerator-based neutron source (ABNS), the 25 million electron Volt (MeV) linear electron accelerator at the Bariloche Atomic Centre. It is dedicated to applications of neutronic methods to tackle problems of basic sciences and to technological applications. Among these, the determination of total cross section of a material as a function of neutron energy by means of transmission experiments for thermal and sub-thermal neutrons is very sensitive to the geometric arrangement and movement of the atoms, over distances ranging from the 'first-neighbour scale' up to the microstructural level or 'grain scale'. This also allowed to test theoretical models of calculated cross sections and scattering kernels. Interest has moved from pulsed neutron diffraction towards deep inelastic neutron scattering (DINS), a powerful tool for the determination of atomic momentum distribution in condensed matter and for non-destructive mass spectroscopy. In recent years non-intrusive techniques aimed at the scanning of large cargo containers have started to be developed with this ABNS, testing the capacity and limitations to detect special nuclear material and dangerous substances in thick cargo arrangements. More recently, the use of the ever-present “bremsstrahlung” radiation has been recognized as a useful complement to instrumental neutron activation, as it permits to detect other nuclear species through high-energy photon activation. The facility is also used for graduate and undergraduate students experimental work within the frame of Instituto Balseiro Physics and Nuclear Engineering courses of study, and also MSc and PhD theses work.Fil: Mayer, Roberto Edmundo. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Centro Atómico Bariloche; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; ArgentinaFil: D'Amico, N. M. B.. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Centro Atómico Bariloche; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; ArgentinaFil: Granada, Jose Rolando. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Centro Atómico Bariloche; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Dawidowski, Javier. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Centro Atómico Bariloche; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Santisteban, Javier Roberto. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Centro Atómico Bariloche; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Blostein, Juan Jeronimo. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Centro Atómico Bariloche; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Tartaglione, Aureliano. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Centro Atómico Bariloche; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Rodriguez Palomino, Luis Alberto. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Centro Atómico Bariloche; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Marquez Damian, Jose Ignacio. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Centro Atómico Bariloche; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Sepúlveda Sosa, C.. Comision Chilena de Energia Nuclear; Chil