Assessing consistency of fish survey data : uncertainties in the estimation of mackerel icefish (Champsocephalus gunnari) abundance at South Georgia

Acknowledgments The authors wish to thank the crews, fishermen and scientists who conducted the various surveys from which data were obtained, and Mark Belchier and Simeon Hill for their contributions. This work was supported by the Government of South Georgia and South Sandwich Islands. Additional logistical support provided by The South Atlantic Environmental Research Institute with thanks to Paul Brickle. Thanks to Stephen Smith of Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) for help in constructing bootstrap confidence limits. Paul Fernandes receives funding from the MASTS pooling initiative (The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland), and their support is gratefully acknowledged. MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions. We also wish to thank two anonymous referees for their helpful suggestions on earlier versions of this manuscript.Peer reviewedPostprin

The Power of Expert Opinion in Ecological Models Using Bayesian Methods: Impact of Grazing on Birds

One of our greatest challenges as researchers is predicting impacts of landuse on biota and predicting the impact of livestock grazing on birds is no exception. Insufficient data and poor survey design often yield results that are not statistically significant or difficult to interpret because researchers cannot disentangle the effects of grazing from other disturbances. This has resulted in few publications on the impact of grazing on birds alone. Ecologists with extensive experience in bird ecology in grazed landscapes could inform an analysis when time and monetary constraints limit the amount of data that can be collected. Using responses from twenty well-recognised ecologists throughout Australia we capture this expert knowledge and incorporate it into a statistical model using Bayesian methods. Although relatively new to ecology, Bayesian methods allow straightforward probability statements to be made about specific models or scenarios and they allow the integration of different types of information, including scientific judgement while formally accommodating and incorporating the uncertainty in the information provided. Data on bird density was collected across three broad levels of grazing (no/low, moderate and high) typical of sub-tropical Australia. This field data was used in conjunction with expert data to produce estimates of species persistence under grazing. The addition of expert data through priors in our model strengthened results under at least one grazing level for all but one bird species examined. When experts were in agreement credible intervals were tightened substantially, whereas when experts were in disagreement results were similar to those evaluated in the absence of expert information. In fields where there is extensive expert knowledge, yet little published data, the use of expert information as priors for ecological models is a cost effective way of making more confident predictions about the effect of management on biodiversity

Vignette 20: Fraser River Estuary in Need of Urgent Intensive Care

The Fraser River is the lifeline of the Salish Sea, influencing its stratification, circulation, and primary productivity. If we do not take strong action to conserve the Fraser River estuary, two-thirds of the species at risk in this region are predicted to have a less than 50% chance of survival. Many of the region\u27s most iconic species could disappear. Conservation action combined with environmental governance is a pathway for a brighter future for the Fraser River and other highly contested regions

Fate of Cajal–Retzius Neurons in the Postnatal Mouse Neocortex

Cajal–Retzius (CR) neurons play a critical role in cortical neuronal migration, but their exact fate after the completion of neocortical lamination remains a mystery. Histological evidence has been unable to unequivocally determine whether these cells die or undergo a phenotypic transformation to become resident interneurons of Layer 1 in the adult neocortex. To determine their ultimate fate, we performed chronic in vivo two-photon imaging of identified CR neurons during postnatal development in mice that express the green fluorescent protein (GFP) under the control of the early B-cell factor 2 (Ebf2) promoter. We find that, after birth, virtually all CR neurons in mouse neocortex express Ebf2. Although postnatal CR neurons undergo dramatic morphological transformations, they do not migrate to deeper layers. Instead, their gradual disappearance from the cortex is due to apoptotic death during the second postnatal week. A small fraction of CR neurons present at birth survive into adulthood. We conclude that, in addition to orchestrating cortical layering, a subset of CR neurons must play other roles beyond the third postnatal week

Bats in a Farming Landscape Benefit from Linear Remnants and Unimproved Pastures

Schemes designed to make farming landscapes less hostile to wildlife have been questioned because target taxa do not always respond in the expected manner. Microbats are often overlooked in this process, yet persist in agricultural landscapes and exert top-down control of crop pests. We investigated the relationship between microbats and measures commonly incorporated into agri-environment schemes, to derive management recommendations for their ongoing conservation. We used acoustic detectors to quantify bat species richness, activity, and feeding in 32 linear remnants and adjacent fields across an agricultural region of New South Wales, Australia. Nocturnal arthropods were simultaneously trapped using black-light traps. We recorded 91,969 bat calls, 17,277 of which could be attributed to one of the 13 taxa recorded, and 491 calls contained feeding buzzes. The linear remnants supported higher bat activity than the fields, but species richness and feeding activity did not significantly differ. We trapped a mean 87.6 g (±17.6 g SE) of arthropods per night, but found no differences in biomass between land uses. Wider linear remnants with intact native vegetation supported more bat species, as did those adjacent to unsealed, as opposed to sealed roads. Fields of unimproved native pastures, with more retained scattered trees and associated hollows and logs, supported the greatest bat species richness and activity. We conclude that the juxtaposition of linear remnants of intact vegetation and scattered trees in fields, coupled with less-intensive land uses such as unimproved pastures will benefit bat communities in agricultural landscapes, and should be incorporated into agri-environment schemes. In contrast, sealed roads may act as a deterrent. The "wildlife friendly farming" vs "land sparing" debate has so far primarily focussed on birds, but here we have found evidence that the integration of both approaches could particularly benefit bats.Financial support was provided by a “Science Grant” from The Paddy Pallin Foundation in partnership with the Royal Zoological Society of NSW (http://www.paddypallinfoundation.org.au/index.php/current/sciencegrants), a WildCountry Science Council student top-up (http://www.wilderness.org.au/campaigns/wildcountry/wild-country-science-council-members), the Australian Government’s Department of Industry, Innovation, Science, Research and Tertiary Education Australian Postgraduate Award to PL (http://www.innovation.gov.au/research/researchblockgrants/pages/australianpostgraduateawards.aspx), and a CSIRO student top-up scholarship to PL (http://www.csiro.au/Portals/Careers/Work-experience-and-scholarships/Postgraduate-scholarships/Flagship-Postgrad-Scholarships.aspx). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Increased telomere attrition following renal transplantation: impact of anti-metabolite therapy

Background: The uremic milieu exposes chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients to premature ageing processes. The impact of renal replacement therapy (dialysis and renal transplantation [RTx]) or immunosuppressive treatment regimens on ageing biomarkers has scarcely been studied. Methods: In this study telomere length in whole blood cells was measured in 49 dialysis patients and 47 RTx patients close to therapy initiation and again after 12 months. Forty-three non-CKD patients were included as controls. Results: Non-CKD patients had significantly (P <= 0.01) longer telomeres than CKD patients. Telomere attrition after 12 months was significantly greater in RTx patients compared to dialysis patients (P = 0.008). RTx patients receiving mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) had a greater (P = 0.007) degree of telomere attrition compared to those treated with azathioprine. After 12 months, folate was significantly higher in RTx patients than in dialysis patients (P < 0.0001), whereas the opposite was true for homocysteine (P < 0.0001). The azathioprine group had lower levels of folate after 12 months than the MMF group (P = 0.003). Conclusions: The associations between immunosuppressive therapy, telomere attrition, and changes in folate indicate a link between methyl donor potential, immunosuppressive drugs, and biological ageing. The hypothesis that the increased telomere attrition, observed in the MMF group after RTx, is driven by the immunosuppressive treatment, deserves further attention

Current practices in the identification of critical habitat for threatened species

The term critical habitat is used to describe the subset of habitat that is essential to the survival and recovery of species. Some countries legally require that critical habitat of listed threatened and endangered species be identified and protected. However, there is little evidence to suggest that the identification of critical habitat has had much impact on species recovery. We hypothesized that this may be due at least partly to a mismatch between the intent of critical habitat identification, which is to protect sufficient habitat for species persistence and recovery, and its practice. We used content analysis to systematically review critical habitat documents from the United States, Canada, and Australia. In particular, we identified the major trends in type of information used to identify critical habitat and in occupancy of habitat identified as critical. Information about population viability was used to identify critical habitat for only 1% of the species reviewed, and for most species, designated critical habitat did not include unoccupied habitat. Without reference to population viability, it is difficult to determine how much of a species' occupied and unoccupied habitat will be required for persistence. We therefore conclude that the identification of critical habitat remains inconsistent with the goal of protecting sufficient habitat to support persistence and recovery of the species. Ensuring that critical habitat identification aligns more closely with its intent will improve the accuracy of the designations and may therefore help improve the benefits to species recovery when combined with adequate implementation and enforcement of legal protections

Modeling abundance using N-mixture models: the importance of considering ecological mechanisms

Predicting abundance across a species' distribution is useful for studies of ecology and biodiversity management. Modeling of survey data in relation to environmental variables can be a powerful method for extrapolating abundances across a species' distribution and, consequently, calculating total abundances and ultimately trends. Research in this area has demonstrated that models of abundance are often unstable and produce spurious estimates, and until recently our ability to remove detection error limited the development of accurate models. The N-mixture model accounts for detection and abundance simultaneously and has been a significant advance in abundance modeling. Case studies that have tested these new models have demonstrated success for some species, but doubt remains over the appropriateness of standard N-mixture models for many species. Here we develop the N-mixture model to accommodate zero-inflated data, a common occurrence in ecology, by employing zero-inflated count models. To our knowledge, this is the first application of this method to modeling count data. We use four variants of the N-mixture model (Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson, negative binomial, and zero-inflated negative binomial) to model abundance, occupancy (zero-inflated models only) and detection probability of six birds in South Australia. We assess models by their statistical fit and the ecological realism of the parameter estimates. Specifically, we assess the statistical fit with AIC and assess the ecological realism by comparing the parameter estimates with expected values derived from literature, ecological theory, and expert opinion. We demonstrate that, despite being frequently ranked the “best model” according to AIC, the negative binomial variants of the N-mixture often produce ecologically unrealistic parameter estimates. The zero-inflated Poisson variant is preferable to the negative binomial variants of the N-mixture, as it models an ecological mechanism rather than a statistical phenomenon and generates reasonable parameter estimates. Our results emphasize the need to include ecological reasoning when choosing appropriate models and highlight the dangers of modeling statistical properties of the data. We demonstrate that, to obtain ecologically realistic estimates of abundance, occupancy and detection probability, it is essential to understand the sources of variation in the data and then use this information to choose appropriate error distributions. Copyright ESA. All rights reserved

Spitzer IRAC observations of newly-discovered planetary nebulae from the Macquarie-AAO-Strasbourg H-alpha Planetary Nebula Project

We compare H-alpha, radio continuum, and Spitzer Space Telescope (SST) images of 58 planetary nebulae (PNe) recently discovered by the Macquarie-AAO-Strasbo- urg H-alpha PN Project (MASH) of the SuperCOSMOS H-alpha Survey. Using InfraRed Array Camera (IRAC) data we define the IR colors of PNe and demonstrate good isolation between these colors and those of many other types of astronomical object. The only substantive contamination of PNe in the color-color plane we illustrate is due to YSOs. However, this ambiguity is readily resolved by the unique optical characteristics of PNe and their environs. We also examine the relationships between optical and MIR morphologies from 3.6 to 8.0um and explore the ratio of mid-infrared (MIR) to radio nebular fluxes, which is a valuable discriminant between thermal and nonthermal emission. MASH emphasizes late evolutionary stages of PNe compared with previous catalogs, enabling study of the changes in MIR and radio flux that attend the aging process. Spatially integrated MIR energy distributions were constructed for all MASH PNe observed by the GLIMPSE Legacy Project, using the H-alpha morphologies to establish the dimensions for the calculations of the Midcourse Space Experiment (MSX), IRAC, and radio continuum (from the Molonglo Observatory Synthesis Telescope and the Very Large Array) flux densities. The ratio of IRAC 8.0-um to MSX 8.3-um flux densities provides a measure of the absolute diffuse calibration of IRAC at 8.0 um. We independently confirm the aperture correction factor to be applied to IRAC at 8.0um to align it with the diffuse calibration of MSX. The result agrees with the recommendations of the Spitzer Science Center and with results from a parallel study of HII regions. These PNe probe the diffuse calibration of IRAC on a spatial scale of 9-77 arcsec.Comment: 48 pages, LaTeX (aastex), incl. 18 PostScript (eps) figures and 3 tables. Accepted by Astrophysical Journa