Decision Tree Algorithms Predict the Diagnosis and Outcome of Dengue Fever in the Early Phase of Illness

Dengue illness appears similar to other febrile illness, particularly in the early stages of disease. Consequently, diagnosis is often delayed or confused with other illnesses, reducing the effectiveness of using clinical diagnosis for patient care and disease surveillance. To address this shortcoming, we have studied 1,200 patients who presented within 72 hours from onset of fever; 30.3% of these had dengue infection, while the remaining 69.7% had other causes of fever. Using body temperature and the results of simple laboratory tests on blood samples of these patients, we have constructed a decision algorithm that is able to distinguish patients with dengue illness from those with other causes of fever with an accuracy of 84.7%. Another decision algorithm is able to predict which of the dengue patients would go on to develop severe disease, as indicated by an eventual drop in the platelet count to 50,000/mm3 blood or below. Our study shows a proof-of-concept that simple decision algorithms can predict dengue diagnosis and the likelihood of developing severe disease, a finding that could prove useful in the management of dengue patients and to public health efforts in preventing virus transmission

Muscle fiber-type distribution predicts weight gain and unfavorable left ventricular geometry: a 19 year follow-up study

BACKGROUND: Skeletal muscle consists of type-I (slow-twitch) and type-II (fast-twitch) fibers, with proportions highly variable between individuals and mostly determined by genetic factors. Cross-sectional studies have associated low percentage of type-I fibers (type-I%) with many cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: We investigated whether baseline type-I% predicts left ventricular (LV) structure and function at 19-year follow-up, and if so, which are the strongest mediating factors. At baseline in 1984 muscle fiber-type distribution (by actomyosin ATPase staining) was studied in 63 healthy men (aged 32–58 years). The follow-up in 2003 included echocardiography, measurement of obesity related variables, physical activity and blood pressure. RESULTS: In the 40 men not using cardiovascular drugs at follow-up, low type-I% predicted higher heart rate, blood pressure, and LV fractional shortening suggesting increased sympathetic tone. Low type-I% predicted smaller LV chamber diameters (P ≤ 0.009) and greater relative wall thickness (P = 0.034) without increase in LV mass (concentric remodeling). This was explained by the association of type-I% with obesity related variables. Type-I% was an independent predictor of follow-up body fat percentage, waist/hip ratio, weight gain in adulthood, and physical activity (in all P ≤ 0.001). After including these risk factors in the regression models, weight gain was the strongest predictor of LV geometry explaining 64% of the variation in LV end-diastolic diameter, 72% in end-systolic diameter, and 53% in relative wall thickness. CONCLUSION: Low type-I% predicts obesity and weight gain especially in the mid-abdomen, and consequently unfavourable LV geometry indicating increased cardiovascular risk

The Early Clinical Features of Dengue in Adults: Challenges for Early Clinical Diagnosis

Dengue infection in adults has become increasingly common throughout the world. As most of the clinical features of dengue have been described in children, we undertook a prospective study to determine the early symptoms and signs of dengue in adults. We show here that, overall, dengue cases presented with high rates of symptoms listed in the WHO 1997 or 2009 classification schemes for probable dengue fever thus resulting in high sensitivities of these schemes when applied for early diagnosis. However, symptoms such as myalgia, arthralgia, retro-orbital pain and mucosal bleeding were less frequently reported in older adults. This trend resulted in reduced sensitivity of the WHO classification schemes in older adults even though they showed increased risks of hospitalization and severe dengue. Instead, we suggest that older adults who present with fever and leukopenia should be tested for dengue, even in the absence of other symptoms. This could be useful for early clinical diagnosis in older adults so that they can be monitored and treated for severe dengue, which is especially important when an antiviral drug becomes available

The association between levels of alcohol consumption and mental health problems and academic performance among young university students

Purpose: Mental health problems and harmful alcohol consumption have been found to be high among young university students compared to the general population in Australia. This research aimed to investigate the association between levels of drinking and mental health problems and academic performance among university students aged 18 to 24 years. Methods: This study used a quantitative cross-sectional design using data that were collected in 2014 as part of the Youth Alcohol Project (YAP). Participants were randomly drawn from a cross sectional sample of 6000 undergraduate students. Included in the study were only students who were within the age of 18-24, undergraduate, and internally enrolled at the main campus. A total of 2518 undergraduate students aged 18 to 24 years who were enrolled internally at Curtin University Bentley campus were randomly recruited. Data were collected through an online survey. Students were invited to participate in the study through their student email address. The email invitations coincided with the release of semester results to increase the likelihood of students accessing their emails. A further 628 students were randomly recruited through face to face intercept survey during the campus market days. Data were collected by trained research assistants. Validated instruments were used to collected data on levels of alcohol consumption, mental health, and academic performance. Results: A considerable proportion of participants (44%) reported consuming alcohol at hazardous or harmful levels. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that students who were consuming alcohol at hazardous levels were 1.2 times more likely to report psychological distress than those with lower levels of alcohol consumption (aOR 1.2, 95% CI: 1.1-1.5). In addition, being late for class (aOR 1.7, 95% CI:1.1-2.4), missing classes (aOR = 2.6, 95% CI: 1.9-2.6), inability to concentrate in class (aOR = 2.6, 95% CI: 1.9-3.4), and inability to complete assignments (aOR = 3.5, 95% CI 2.0-6.0) independently predicted for moderate or hazardous alcohol consumption. Conclusion: The study shows that a considerable proportion of undergraduate students at university consume alcohol at hazardous or harmful levels. In addition, high levels of alcohol consumption are associated with poor academic performance and mental health outcomes among students. The results of the study warrant multi-strategy interventions that focus on policy, organisational, educational, environmental and economic strategies that will help to reduce alcohol related harms among university students

Indicated prevention interventions for anxiety in children and adolescents: a review and meta-analysis of school-based programs

Anxiety disorders are among the most common youth mental health disorders. Early intervention can reduce elevated anxiety symptoms. School-based interventions exist but it is unclear how effective targeted approaches are for reducing symptoms of anxiety. This review and meta-analysis aimed to determine the effectiveness of school-based indicated interventions for symptomatic children and adolescents. The study was registered with PROSPERO [CRD42018087628]. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and the Cochrane Library for randomised-controlled trials comparing indicated programs for child and adolescent (5–18 years) anxiety to active or inactive control groups. Data were extracted from papers up to December 2019. The primary outcome was efficacy (mean change in anxiety symptom scores). Sub-group and sensitivity analyses explored intervention intensity and control type. We identified 20 studies with 2076 participants. Eighteen studies were suitable for meta-analysis. A small positive effect was found for indicated programs compared to controls on self-reported anxiety symptoms at post-test (g = − 0.28, CI = − 0.50, − 0.05, k = 18). This benefit was maintained at 6 (g = − 0.35, CI = − 0.58, − 0.13, k = 9) and 12 months (g = − 0.24, CI = − 0.48, 0.00, k = 4). Based on two studies, > 12 month effects were very small (g = − 0.01, CI = − 0.38, 0.36). No differences were found based on intervention intensity or control type. Risk of bias and variability between studies was high (I2 = 78%). Findings show that school-based indicated programs for child and adolescent anxiety can produce small beneficial effects, enduring for up to 12 months. Future studies should include long-term diagnostic assessments

Modeling Routes of Chronic Wasting Disease Transmission: Environmental Prion Persistence Promotes Deer Population Decline and Extinction

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal disease of deer, elk, and moose transmitted through direct, animal-to-animal contact, and indirectly, via environmental contamination. Considerable attention has been paid to modeling direct transmission, but despite the fact that CWD prions can remain infectious in the environment for years, relatively little information exists about the potential effects of indirect transmission on CWD dynamics. In the present study, we use simulation models to demonstrate how indirect transmission and the duration of environmental prion persistence may affect epidemics of CWD and populations of North American deer. Existing data from Colorado, Wyoming, and Wisconsin's CWD epidemics were used to define plausible short-term outcomes and associated parameter spaces. Resulting long-term outcomes range from relatively low disease prevalence and limited host-population decline to host-population collapse and extinction. Our models suggest that disease prevalence and the severity of population decline is driven by the duration that prions remain infectious in the environment. Despite relatively low epidemic growth rates, the basic reproductive number, R0, may be much larger than expected under the direct-transmission paradigm because the infectious period can vastly exceed the host's life span. High prion persistence is expected to lead to an increasing environmental pool of prions during the early phases (i.e. approximately during the first 50 years) of the epidemic. As a consequence, over this period of time, disease dynamics will become more heavily influenced by indirect transmission, which may explain some of the observed regional differences in age and sex-specific disease patterns. This suggests management interventions, such as culling or vaccination, will become increasingly less effective as CWD epidemics progress

Acute neuropsychological effects of MDMA and ethanol (co-)administration in healthy volunteers

Contains fulltext : 73592.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)RATIONALE: In Western societies, a considerable percentage of young people expose themselves to 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA or "ecstasy"). Commonly, ecstasy is used in combination with other substances, in particular alcohol (ethanol). MDMA induces both arousing as well as hallucinogenic effects, whereas ethanol is a general central nervous system depressant. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study is to assess the acute effects of single and co-administration of MDMA and ethanol on executive, memory, psychomotor, visuomotor, visuospatial and attention function, as well as on subjective experience. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a four-way, double-blind, randomised, crossover, placebo-controlled study in 16 healthy volunteers (nine male, seven female) between the ages of 18-29. MDMA was given orally (100 mg) and blood alcohol concentration was maintained at 0.6 per thousand by an ethanol infusion regime. RESULTS: Co-administration of MDMA and ethanol was well tolerated and did not show greater impairment of performance compared to the single-drug conditions. Impaired memory function was consistently observed after all drug conditions, whereas impairment of psychomotor function and attention was less consistent across drug conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Co-administration of MDMA and ethanol did not exacerbate the effects of either drug alone. Although the impairment of performance by all drug conditions was relatively moderate, all induced significant impairment of cognitive function

Trading between healthy food, alcohol and physical activity behaviours

BACKGROUND: While recent lifestyle studies have explored the role that food, alcohol or physical activity have on health and wellbeing, few have explored the interplay between these behaviours and the impact this has on a healthy lifestyle. Given the long term health advantages associated with leading healthier lifestyles, this study seeks to: 1) explore the interplay between the food, alcohol and physical activity behaviours of young adults (aged 19–26 years) in the North East of England; 2) explore the trade-offs young adults make between their food, alcohol and physical activity behaviours; and 3) recognise the positive and negative associations between the three behaviours. METHODS: Qualitative self-reported lifestyle diaries and in-depth interviews were conducted with 50 young adults from the North East of England between February and June 2008. Qualitative thematic analysis was undertaken using Nvivo QSR software, and diary coding using Windiets software. RESULTS: Young adults who attempt to achieve a ‘healthy lifestyle’ make trade-offs between the food and alcohol they consume, and the amounts of physical activity they undertake. There are negative reasons and positive consequences associated with these trade-offs. Young adults recognise the consequences of their behaviours and as a result are prepared to undertake healthy behaviours to compensate for unhealthy behaviours. They prefer certain strategies to promote healthier behaviours over others, in particular those that relate to personalised advice and support, more affordable ways to be healthier and easily-accessed advice from a range of media sources. CONCLUSIONS: Young adults seek to compensate unhealthy behaviours (e.g. binge drinking) with healthy behaviours (e.g. physical activity). Creative solutions may be required to tackle these trade-offs and promote a balance across the food, alcohol and physical activity behaviours of this age group. Solutions that may be effective with this age group include environmental changes (e.g. green spaces and increasing the price of alcohol) designed to encourage and facilitate young people making healthier choices and improving their access to, and lowering the price of, healthy food products. Solutions must recognise these trade-offs and in particular, the strong reluctance of young adults to alter their higher-than-recommended levels of alcohol consumption

Localization and broadband follow-up of the gravitational-wave transient GW150914

A gravitational-wave (GW) transient was identified in data recorded by the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) detectors on 2015 September 14. The event, initially designated G184098 and later given the name GW150914, is described in detail elsewhere. By prior arrangement, preliminary estimates of the time, significance, and sky location of the event were shared with 63 teams of observers covering radio, optical, near-infrared, X-ray, and gamma-ray wavelengths with ground- and space-based facilities. In this Letter we describe the low-latency analysis of the GW data and present the sky localization of the first observed compact binary merger. We summarize the follow-up observations reported by 25 teams via private Gamma-ray Coordinates Network circulars, giving an overview of the participating facilities, the GW sky localization coverage, the timeline, and depth of the observations. As this event turned out to be a binary black hole merger, there is little expectation of a detectable electromagnetic (EM) signature. Nevertheless, this first broadband campaign to search for a counterpart of an Advanced LIGO source represents a milestone and highlights the broad capabilities of the transient astronomy community and the observing strategies that have been developed to pursue neutron star binary merger events. Detailed investigations of the EM data and results of the EM follow-up campaign are being disseminated in papers by the individual teams