Predicting the Yield of Small Transiting Exoplanets around Mid-M and Ultra-Cool Dwarfs in the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey

We simulate the yield of small (0.5-4.0 R$_\oplus$) transiting exoplanets around single mid-M and ultra-cool dwarfs (UCDs) in the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey. We consider multiple approaches for simulating M3-T9 sources within the survey fields, including scaling local space densities and using Galactic stellar population synthesis models. These approaches independently predict $\sim$100,000 single mid-M dwarfs and UCDs brighter than a Roman F146 magnitude of 21 that are within the survey fields. Assuming planet occurrence statistics previously measured for early-to-mid M dwarfs, we predict that the survey will discover 1347$^{+208}_{-124}$ small transiting planets around these sources, each to a significance of 7.1$\sigma$ or greater. Significant departures from this prediction would test whether the occurrence rates of small planets increase or decrease around mid-M dwarfs and UCDs compared to early-M dwarfs. We predict the detection of 13$^{+4}_{-3}$ habitable, terrestrial planets ($R_p<$1.23 R$_\oplus$) in the survey. However, atmospheric characterization of these planets will be challenging with current or near-future space telescope facilities due to the faintness of the host stars. Nevertheless, accurate statistics for the occurrence of small planets around mid-M dwarfs and UCDs will enable direct tests of predictions from planet formation theories and will determine our understanding of planet demographics around the objects at the bottom of the main sequence. This understanding is critical given the prevalence of such objects in our Galaxy, whose planets may therefore comprise the bulk of the galactic census of exoplanets.Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, accepted to A

Searching for Exosatellites Orbiting L and T Dwarfs: Connecting Planet Formation to Moon Formation and Finding New Temperate Worlds

L-type and T-type dwarfs span the boundaries between main-sequence stars, brown dwarfs, and planetary-mass objects. For these reasons, L and T dwarfs are the perfect laboratories for exploring the relationship between planet formation and moon formation, and evidence suggests they may be swarming with close-in rocky satellites, though none have been found to date. The discovery of satellites orbiting L or T dwarfs will have transformative implications for the nature of planets, moons and even life in the Universe. These transiting satellites will be prime targets for characterization with NASA's James Webb Space Telescope. In this white paper, we discuss the scientific motivations behind searching for transiting satellites orbiting L and T dwarfs and argue that robotizing current 1-to-2-meter US optical/infrared (O/IR) facilities and equipping them with recently developed low-cost infrared imagers will enable these discoveries in the next decade. Furthermore, robotizing the 1-to-2-meter O/IR fleet is highly synergistic with rapid follow-up of transient and multi-messenger events.Comment: Science white paper submitted to the Astro 2020 Decadal Survey on Astronomy and Astrophysic

Evidence for a Dayside Thermal Inversion and High Metallicity for the Hot Jupiter WASP-18b

We find evidence for a strong thermal inversion in the dayside atmosphere of the highly irradiated hot Jupiter WASP-18b (T$_{eq}=2411K$, $M=10.3M_{J}$) based on emission spectroscopy from Hubble Space Telescope secondary eclipse observations and Spitzer eclipse photometry. We demonstrate a lack of water vapor in either absorption or emission at 1.4$\mu$m. However, we infer emission at 4.5$\mu$m and absorption at 1.6$\mu$m that we attribute to CO, as well as a non-detection of all other relevant species (e.g., TiO, VO). The most probable atmospheric retrieval solution indicates a C/O ratio of 1 and a high metallicity (C/H=$283^{+395}_{-138}\times$ solar). The derived composition and T/P profile suggest that WASP-18b is the first example of both a planet with a non-oxide driven thermal inversion and a planet with an atmospheric metallicity inconsistent with that predicted for Jupiter-mass planets at $>2\sigma$. Future observations are necessary to confirm the unusual planetary properties implied by these results

Confirmation of a dynamical model for the TRAPPIST-1 exoplanetary system

We present a new transit of TRAPPIST-1 d from 2021 August 25. The measured mid-point of this transit agrees with the prediction from a recently published dynamical model for the TRAPPIST-1 system and differs significantly from a naive prediction from a simple linear ephemeris. This difference underlines the importance for using dynamical models to predict future transit times in the TRAPPIST-1 system.Published versio

The Perkins INfrared Exosatellite Survey (PINES) II. Transit Candidates and Implications for Planet Occurrence around L and T Dwarfs

We describe a new transit detection algorithm designed to detect single transit events in discontinuous Perkins INfrared Exosatellite Survey (PINES) observations of L and T dwarfs. We use this algorithm to search for transits in 131 PINES light curves and identify two transit candidates: 2MASS J18212815+1414010 (2MASS J1821+1414) and 2MASS J08350622+1953050 (2MASS J0835+1953). We disfavor 2MASS J1821+1414 as a genuine transit candidate due to the known variability properties of the source. We cannot rule out the planetary nature of 2MASS J0835+1953's candidate event and perform follow-up observations in an attempt to recover a second transit. A repeat event has yet to be observed, but these observations suggest that target variability is an unlikely cause of the candidate transit. We perform a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation of the light curve and estimate a planet radius ranging from $4.2^{+3.5}_{-1.6}R_\oplus$ to $5.8^{+4.8}_{-2.1}R_\oplus$, depending on the host's age. Finally, we perform an injection and recovery simulation on our light curve sample. We inject planets into our data using measured M dwarf planet occurrence rates and attempt to recover them using our transit search algorithm. Our detection rates suggest that, assuming M dwarf planet occurrence rates, we should have roughly a 1$\%$ chance of detecting a candidate that could cause the transit depth we observe for 2MASS J0835+1953. If 2MASS J0835+1953 b is confirmed, it would suggest an enhancement in the occurrence of short-period planets around L and T dwarfs in comparison to M dwarfs, which would challenge predictions from planet formation models.Comment: 23 pages, 15 figures, accepted to A

The Perkins INfrared Exosatellite Survey (PINES) I. survey overview, reduction pipeline, and early results

We describe the Perkins INfrared Exosatellite Survey (PINES), a near-infrared photometric search for short-period transiting planets and moons around a sample of 393 spectroscopically confirmed L- and T-type dwarfs. PINES is performed with Boston University’s 1.8 m Perkins Telescope Observatory, located on Anderson Mesa, Arizona. We discuss the observational strategy of the survey, which was designed to optimize the number of expected transit detections, and describe custom automated observing procedures for performing PINES observations. We detail the steps of the PINES Analysis Toolkit (PAT), software that is used to create light curves from PINES images. We assess the impact of second-order extinction due to changing precipitable water vapor on our observations and find that the magnitude of this effect is minimized in Mauna Kea Observatories J band. We demonstrate the validity of PAT through the recovery of a transit of WASP-2 b and known variable brown dwarfs, and use it to identify a new variable L/T transition object: the T2 dwarf WISE J045746.08-020719.2. We report on the measured photometric precision of the survey and use it to estimate our transit-detection sensitivity. We find that for our median brightness targets, assuming contributions from white noise only, we are sensitive to the detection of 2.5 R ⊕ planets and larger. PINES will test whether the increase in sub-Neptune-sized planet occurrence with decreasing host mass continues into the L- and T-dwarf regime.https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-3881/ac64aa/pdfPublished versio

No thick carbon dioxide atmosphere on the rocky exoplanet TRAPPIST-1 c

Seven rocky planets orbit the nearby dwarf star TRAPPIST-1, providing a unique opportunity to search for atmospheres on small planets outside the Solar System (Gillon et al., 2017). Thanks to the recent launch of JWST, possible atmospheric constituents such as carbon dioxide (CO2) are now detectable (Morley et al., 2017, Lincowski et al., 2018}. Recent JWST observations of the innermost planet TRAPPIST-1 b showed that it is most probably a bare rock without any CO2 in its atmosphere (Greene et al., 2023). Here we report the detection of thermal emission from the dayside of TRAPPIST-1 c with the Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) on JWST at 15 micron. We measure a planet-to-star flux ratio of fp/fs = 421 +/- 94 parts per million (ppm) which corresponds to an inferred dayside brightness temperature of 380 +/- 31 K. This high dayside temperature disfavours a thick, CO2-rich atmosphere on the planet. The data rule out cloud-free O2/CO2 mixtures with surface pressures ranging from 10 bar (with 10 ppm CO2) to 0.1 bar (pure CO2). A Venus-analogue atmosphere with sulfuric acid clouds is also disfavoured at 2.6 sigma confidence. Thinner atmospheres or bare-rock surfaces are consistent with our measured planet-to-star flux ratio. The absence of a thick, CO2-rich atmosphere on TRAPPIST-1 c suggests a relatively volatile-poor formation history, with less than 9.5 +7.5 -2.3 Earth oceans of water. If all planets in the system formed in the same way, this would indicate a limited reservoir of volatiles for the potentially habitable planets in the system.Comment: Published in Nature on June 19th. 2023, 10 figures, 4 table

Characteristics of the colorectal cancers diagnosed in the early 2000s in Italy. Figures from the IMPATTO study on colorectal cancer screening

The impact of organized screening programmes on colorectal cancer (CRC) can be observed at a population level only several years after the implementation of screening. We compared CRC characteristics by diagnostic modality (screen-detected, non-screen-detected) as an early outcome to monitor screening programme effectiveness. Data on CRCs diagnosed in Italy from 2000 to 2008 were collected by several cancer registries. Linkage with screening datasets made it possible to divide the cases by geographic area, implementation of screening, and modality of diagnosis (screen-detected, non-screen-detected).We compared the main characteristics of the different subgroups of CRCs through multivariate logistic regression models. The study included 23,668 CRCs diagnosed in subjects aged 50-69 years, of which 11.9%were screendetected (N=2,806), all from the North-Centre of Italy. Among screen-detected CRCs, we observed a higher proportion of males, of cases in the distal colon, and a higher mean age of the patients. Compared with pre-screening cases, screen-detected CRCs showed a better distribution by stage at diagnosis (OR for stage III or IV: 0.40, 95%CI: 0.36-0.44) and grading (OR for poorly differentiated CRCs was 0.86, 95%CI: 0.75-1.00). Screen-detected CRCs have more favourable prognostic characteristics than non-screen-detected cases. A renewed effort to implement screening programmes throughout the entire country is recommended

Mega-analysis methods in ENIGMA: the experience of the generalized anxiety disorder working group

The ENIGMA group on Generalized Anxiety Disorder (ENIGMA‐Anxiety/GAD) is part of a broader effort to investigate anxiety disorders using imaging and genetic data across multiple sites worldwide. The group is actively conducting a mega‐analysis of a large number of brain structural scans. In this process, the group was confronted with many methodological challenges related to study planning and implementation, between‐country transfer of subject‐level data, quality control of a considerable amount of imaging data, and choices related to statistical methods and efficient use of resources. This report summarizes the background information and rationale for the various methodological decisions, as well as the approach taken to implement them. The goal is to document the approach and help guide other research groups working with large brain imaging data sets as they develop their own analytic pipelines for mega‐analyses