Building prognostic models for adverse outcomes in a prospective cohort of hospitalised patients with acute leptospirosis infection in the Philippines

Leptospirosis is endemic to the Philippines. Ten per cent of cases will develop severe or fatal disease. Predicting progression to severity is difficult. Risk factors have been suggested, but few attempts have been made to create predictive models to guide clinical decisions. We present two models to predict the risk of mortality and progression to severe disease. Data was used from a prospective cohort study conducted between 2011 and 2013 in San Lazaro Hospital, Manila. Predictive factors were identified from a literature review. A strategy utilizing backwards stepwise-elimination and multivariate fractional polynomials identified key predictive factors. A total of 203 patients met the inclusion criteria. The overall mortality rate was 6.84%. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that neutrophil counts [OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.15–1.67] and platelet counts [OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.97–0.99] were predictive for risk of mortality. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that male sex (OR 3.29, 95% CI 1.22–12.57) and number of days between symptom onset and antibiotic use (OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.08–1.53) were predictive for risk of progression to severe disease. The multivariable prognostic models for the risks of mortality and progression to severe disease developed could be useful in guiding clinical management by the early identification of patients at risk of adverse outcomes

Galectin-9 plasma levels reflect adverse hematological and immunological features in acute dengue virus infection

Background: Dengue virus (DENV) infection remains a major public health burden worldwide. Soluble mediators may play a critical role in the pathogenesis of acute DENV infection. Galectin-9 (Gal-9) is a soluble β-galactoside-binding lectin, with multiple immunoregulatory and inflammatory properties. Objective: To investigate plasma Gal-9 levels as a biomarker for DENV infection. Study design: We enrolled 65 DENV infected patients during the 2010 epidemic in the Philippines and measured their plasma Gal-9 and cytokine/chemokine levels, DENV genotypes, and copy number during the critical and recovery phases of illness. Results: During the critical phase, Gal-9 levels were significantly higher in DENV infected patients compared to healthy or those with non-dengue febrile illness. The highest Gal-9 levels were observed in dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) patients (DHF: 2464. pg/ml; dengue fever patients (DF): 1407. pg/ml; non-dengue febrile illness: 616. pg/ml; healthy: 196. pg/ml). In the recovery phase, Gal-9 levels significantly declined from peak levels in DF and DHF patients. Gal-9 levels tracked viral load, and were associated with multiple cytokines and chemokines (IL-1α, IL-8, IP-10, and VEGF), including monocyte frequencies and hematologic variables of coagulation. Further discriminant analyses showed that eotaxin, Gal-9, IFN-α2, and MCP-1 could detect 92% of DHF and 79.3% of DF, specifically (P < 0.01). Conclusion: Gal-9 appears to track DENV inflammatory responses, and therefore, it could serve as an important novel biomarker of acute DENV infection and disease severity

Diagnostic Accuracy of Recombinant Immunoglobulin-like Protein A-Based IgM ELISA for the Early Diagnosis of Leptospirosis in the Philippines

Background Leptospirosis is an important but largely under-recognized public health problem in the tropics. Establishment of highly sensitive and specific laboratory diagnosis is essential to reveal the magnitude of problem and to improve treatment. This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of a recombinant LigA protein based IgM ELISA during outbreaks in the clinical-setting of a highly endemic country. Methodology/Principal Findings A prospective study was conducted from October 2011 to September 2013 at a national referral hospital for infectious diseases in Manila, Philippines. Patients who were hospitalized with clinically suspected leptospirosis were enrolled. Plasma and urine were collected on admission and/or at discharge and tested using the LigA-IgM ELISA and a whole cellbased IgM ELISA. Sensitivity and specificity of these tests were evaluated with cases diagnosed by microscopic agglutination test (MAT), culture and LAMP as the composite reference standard and blood bank donors as healthy controls: the mean+3 standard deviation optical density value of healthy controls was used as the cut-off limit (0.062 for the LigA-IgM ELISA and 0.691 for the whole cell-based IgM ELISA). Of 304 patients enrolled in the study, 270 (89.1%) were male and the median age was 30.5 years; 167 (54.9%) were laboratory confirmed. The sensitivity and ROC curve AUC for the LigA-IgM ELISA was significantly greater than the whole cell-based IgM ELISA (69.5% vs. 54.3%, p<0.01; 0.90 vs. 0.82, p<0.01) on admission, but not at discharge. The specificity of LigA-IgM ELISA and whole cell-based IgM ELISA were not significantly different (98% vs. 97%). Among 158 MAT negative patients, 53 and 28 were positive by LigA- and whole cell-based IgM ELISA, respectively; if the laboratory confirmation was re-defined by LigA-IgM ELISA and LAMP, the clinical findings were more characteristic of leptospirosis than the diagnosis based on MAT/ culture/LAMP. Conclusions/Significance The newly developed LigA-IgM ELISA is more sensitive than the whole cell-based IgM based ELISA. Although the final diagnosis must be validated by more specific tests, LigAIgM ELISA could be a useful diagnostic test in a real clinical-setting, where diagnosis is needed in the early phase of infection

Urine Levels of Defensin α1 Reflect Kidney Injury in Leptospirosis Patients

Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease whose severe forms are often accompanied by kidney dysfunction. In the present study, urinary markers were studied for potential prediction of disease severity. Urine samples from 135 patients with or without leptospirosis at San Lazaro Hospital, the Philippines, were analyzed. Urine levels of defensin 1 (uDA1) were compared with those of neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) and N-acetyl- -D-glucosidase (uNAG). Serum creatinine (Cr) was used as a marker of kidney injury. The levels of uDA1/Cr, uNGAL/Cr, and uNAG/Cr were positive in 46%, 90%, and 80% of leptospirosis patients, and 69%, 70%, and 70% of non-leptospirosis patients, respectively. In leptospirosis patients, the correlation of uDA1/Cr, uNGAL/Cr and uNAG/Cr levels with serum Cr were r = 0.3 (p < 0.01), r = 0.29 (p < 0.01), and r = 0.02 (p = 0.81), respectively. uDA1/Cr levels were correlated with uNGAL/Cr levels (r = 0.49, p < 0.01) and uNAG/Cr levels (r = 0.47, p < 0.0001) in leptospirosis patients. These findings suggest that uDA1, uNGAL, and uNAG were elevated in leptospirosis patients and reflected various types of kidney damage. uDA1 and uNGAL can be used to track kidney injury in leptospirosis patients because of their correlation with the serum Cr level

Comparison of sensitivity of diagnostic examination and day of illness among laboratory confirmed cases (N = 153).

<p>This figure included pair serum results of MAT and LigA / Patoc-based IgM ELISA. 11 plasma samples and 12 urine samples were not included in this analysis due to a lack of information. Vertical bars indicate 95% confidence intervals.</p

Comparison of sensitivity between serovars (N = 134).

<p>Vertical bars indicate 95% confidence intervals.</p

Study enrollment and sample collection.

<p>Study enrollment and sample collection.</p