Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The Effect of Labeled/Unlabeled Prior Information for Masseter Segmentation

Several segmentation methods are implemented and applied to segment the facial masseter tissue from magnetic resonance images. The common idea for all methods is to take advantage of prior information from different MR images belonging to different individuals in segmentation of a test MR image. Standard atlas-based segmentation methods and probabilistic segmentation methods based on Markov random field use labeled prior information. In this study, a new approach is also proposed where unlabeled prior information from a set of MR images is used to segment masseter tissue in a probabilistic framework. The proposed method uses only a seed point that indicates the target tissue and performs automatic segmentation for the selected tissue without using labeled training set. The segmentation results of all methods are validated and compared where the influences of labeled or unlabeled prior information and initialization are discussed particularly. It is shown that if appropriate modeling is done, there is no need for labeled prior information. The best accuracy is obtained by the proposed approach where unlabeled prior information is used

Brain Computer Interfaces for Silent Speech

Brain Computer Interface (BCI) systems provide control of external devices by using only brain activity. In recent years, there has been a great interest in developing BCI systems for different applications. These systems are capable of solving daily life problems for both healthy and disabled people. One of the most important applications of BCI is to provide communication for disabled people that are totally paralysed. In this paper, different parts of a BCI system and different methods used in each part are reviewed. Neuroimaging devices, with an emphasis on EEG (electroencephalography), are presented and brain activities as well as signal processing methods used in EEG-based BCIs are explained in detail. Current methods and paradigms in BCI based speech communication are considered

A novel deep learning approach for classification of EEG motor imagery signals

Objective. Signal classification is an important issue in brain computer interface (BCI) systems. Deep learning approaches have been used successfully in many recent studies to learn features and classify different types of data. However, the number of studies that employ these approaches on BCI applications is very limited. In this study we aim to use deep learning methods to improve classification performance of EEG motor imagery signals. Approach. In this study we investigate convolutional neural networks (CNN) and stacked autoencoders (SAE) to classify EEG Motor Imagery signals. A new form of input is introduced to combine time, frequency and location information extracted from EEG signal and it is used in CNN having one 1D convolutional and one max-pooling layers. We also proposed a new deep network by combining CNN and SAE. In this network, the features that are extracted in CNN are classified through the deep network SAE. Main results. The classification performance obtained by the proposed method on BCI competition IV dataset 2b in terms of kappa value is 0.547. Our approach yields 9% improvement over the winner algorithm of the competition. Significance. Our results show that deep learning methods provide better classification performance compared to other state of art approaches. These methods can be applied successfully to BCI systems where the amount of data is large due to daily recording

Motor Imgeleme EEG Verisi Toplama

Bir birinden ayırt edilebilen beyin sinyalleri kullanılarak bir harf kodlamasına gidilmesinin bu işlemi hızlandıracağını ve motor imgeleme EEG kayıtlarının bu amaç için uygun olduğunudüşünmekteyiz. 1 Doktora ve 1 Y. Lisans tez ogrencimin koordineli olarak yapacakları BCI konuşma sentezi tez çalışmaları için bu projede motor imgeleme EEG verisi toplamaya yönelik çalışmaları başlatmayı amaçlamaktayız