Essays in labour economics: School leaving, unemployment and retirement

This thesis investigates empirically three topics related, respectively, to school leaving, unemployment and retirement. It consists of three independent research articles, accompanied by a general introduction and a conclusion section. Chapter 1 investigates the extent to which the demand for post-compulsory education of British 16-year-olds responds to local labour market conditions. The findings show that prevailing unemployment rates influence the schooling decisions of students from a less affluent family background, while students from better-off families tend to enrol in post-compulsory education irrespectively of labour market conditions. Factors associated with the family’s socio economic status, such as parental tastes for education and social norms, are arguably at the base of the different behaviours. Chapter 2 analyses the persistence in unemployment incidence during the last two decades. The methodology employed allows disentangling the true state dependence from the confounding role played by observed and unobserved heterogeneity. The evidence supports that unemployment experiences "scar" British workers by compromising their future employability. The findings also suggest a countercyclical pattern of true state dependence as unemployment scars more during recessions. Chapter 3 studies the extent to which retirement influences the cognitive capital of British older workers. The analysis relies on an instrumental variable approach to address the endogeneity bias. Consistent with the "use it or lose it" hypothesis, the results suggests that retirement contributes significantly to the cognitive decline suffered at older ages by British workers. The final section of the thesis summarises the main findings of the three chapters and discusses policy implications and extensions

Essays in labour economics: School leaving, unemployment and retirement

This thesis investigates empirically three topics related, respectively, to school leaving, unemployment and retirement. It consists of three independent research articles, accompanied by a general introduction and a conclusion section. Chapter 1 investigates the extent to which the demand for post-compulsory education of British 16-year-olds responds to local labour market conditions. The findings show that prevailing unemployment rates influence the schooling decisions of students from a less affluent family background, while students from better-off families tend to enrol in post-compulsory education irrespectively of labour market conditions. Factors associated with the family’s socio economic status, such as parental tastes for education and social norms, are arguably at the base of the different behaviours. Chapter 2 analyses the persistence in unemployment incidence during the last two decades. The methodology employed allows disentangling the true state dependence from the confounding role played by observed and unobserved heterogeneity. The evidence supports that unemployment experiences "scar" British workers by compromising their future employability. The findings also suggest a countercyclical pattern of true state dependence as unemployment scars more during recessions. Chapter 3 studies the extent to which retirement influences the cognitive capital of British older workers. The analysis relies on an instrumental variable approach to address the endogeneity bias. Consistent with the "use it or lose it" hypothesis, the results suggests that retirement contributes significantly to the cognitive decline suffered at older ages by British workers. The final section of the thesis summarises the main findings of the three chapters and discusses policy implications and extensions

The impact of COVID-19 on households' income in the EU

This analysis makes use of economic forecasts for 2020 issued by the European Commission in Autumn 2019 and Spring 2020, and of a counterfactual under a no-policy change assumption, to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on EU households' income. Additionally, our analysis assesses the cushioning effect of discretionary fiscal policy measures taken by the EU Member States. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to affect significantly households' disposable income in the EU, with lower income households being more severely hit. However, our results show that due to policy intervention, the impact of the crisis is expected to be similar to the one experienced during the 2008–2009 financial crisis. In detail, our results indicate that discretionary fiscal policy measures will play a significant cushioning role, reducing the size of the income loss (from -9.3% to -4.3% for the average equivalised disposable income), its regressivity and mitigating the poverty impact of the pandemic. We conclude that policy interventions are therefore instrumental in cushioning against the impact of the crisis on inequality and poverty

Trojan Horse Investigation for AGB Stellar Nucleosynthesis

Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) stars are among the most important astrophysical sites influencing the nucleosynthesis and the chemical abundances in the Universe. From a pure nuclear point of view, several processes take part during this peculiar stage of stellar evolution thus requiring detailed experimental cross section measurements. Here, we report on the most recent results achieved via the application of the Trojan Horse Method (THM) and Asymptotic Normalization Coefficient (ANC) indirect techniques, discussing the details of the experimental procedure and the deduced reaction rates. In addition, we report also on the on going studies of interest for AGB nucleosynthesis

Dietary intake of animal and plant proteins and risk of all cause and cause-specific mortality: The Epic-Italy cohort

BACKGROUND: To examine the associations of animal and plant protein intake with all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality risk in middle-aged Italian men and women with substantially lower animal protein intake than North Americans. METHODS AND RESULTS: Food consumption was assessed by validated Epic semiquantitative FFQs. Multivariable Cox models stratified by center, age, and sex, and adjusted for confounders, estimated associations of animal and plant protein consumption with mortality for all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. After a median follow-up of 15.2 years, 2,449 deaths were identified in 45,009 participants. No significant association between intake of total, animal or plant protein and mortality was found in the fully adjusted models. Substitution of plant protein for animal protein was inversely associated with cardiovascular mortality (HR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.24–0.92) only in people with at least 1 unhealthy lifestyle risk factor and poor adherence to a Mediterranean diet. Participants in the highest quintile group of animal protein intake had higher glucose, total and LDL cholesterol levels than those in the lowest quintile. In contrast, higher plant protein intake was negatively associated with fasting insulin and cholesterol, despite higher BMI, physical inactivity and starch consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Replacing plant protein for animal protein was associated with lower cardiovascular mortality among individuals with unhealthy lifestyle risk factors. High animal but not plant protein intake is associated with impaired fasting glucose and hypercholesterolemia, despite lower calorie and carbohydrate intake, suggesting that protein source plays crucial roles in modulating cardiometabolic health independently of body weight

Epidemiological patterns of asbestos exposure and spatial clusters of incident cases of malignant mesothelioma from the Italian national registry.

BACKGROUND: Previous ecological spatial studies of malignant mesothelioma cases, mostly based on mortality data, lack reliable data on individual exposure to asbestos, thus failing to assess the contribution of different occupational and environmental sources in the determination of risk excess in specific areas. This study aims to identify territorial clusters of malignant mesothelioma through a Bayesian spatial analysis and to characterize them by the integrated use of asbestos exposure information retrieved from the Italian national mesothelioma registry (ReNaM). METHODS: In the period 1993 to 2008, 15,322 incident cases of all-site malignant mesothelioma were recorded and 11,852 occupational, residential and familial histories were obtained by individual interviews. Observed cases were assigned to the municipality of residence at the time of diagnosis and compared to those expected based on the age-specific rates of the respective geographical area. A spatial cluster analysis was performed for each area applying a Bayesian hierarchical model. Information about modalities and economic sectors of asbestos exposure was analyzed for each cluster. RESULTS: Thirty-two clusters of malignant mesothelioma were identified and characterized using the exposure data. Asbestos cement manufacturing industries and shipbuilding and repair facilities represented the main sources of asbestos exposure, but a major contribution to asbestos exposure was also provided by sectors with no direct use of asbestos, such as non-asbestos textile industries, metal engineering and construction. A high proportion of cases with environmental exposure was found in clusters where asbestos cement plants were located or a natural source of asbestos (or asbestos-like) fibers was identifiable. Differences in type and sources of exposure can also explain the varying percentage of cases occurring in women among clusters. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates shared exposure patterns in territorial clusters of malignant mesothelioma due to single or multiple industrial sources, with major implications for public health policies, health surveillance, compensation procedures and site remediation programs

Malignant mesothelioma due to non-occupational asbestos exposure from the Italian national surveillance system (ReNaM): epidemiology and public health issues

Italy produced and imported a large amount of raw asbestos, up to the ban in 1992, with a peak in the period between 1976 and 1980 at about 160\u2005000 tons/year. The National Register of Mesotheliomas (ReNaM, "Registro Nazionale dei Mesoteliomi" in Italian), a surveillance system of mesothelioma incidence, has been active since 2002, operating through a regional structure

Minimal Extrathyroidal Extension in Predicting 1-Year Outcomes: A Longitudinal Multicenter Study of Low-to-Intermediate-Risk Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma (ITCO#4)

Background: The role of minimal extrathyroidal extension (mETE) as a risk factor for persistent papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is still debated. The aim of this study was to assess the clinical impact of mETE as a predictor of worse initial treatment response in PTC patients and to verify the impact of radioiodine therapy after surgery in patients with mETE. Methods: We reviewed all records in the Italian Thyroid Cancer Observatory (ITCO) database and selected 2237 consecutive patients with PTC who satisfied the inclusion criteria (PTC with no lymph node metastases and at least 1 year of follow-up). For each case, we considered initial surgery, histological variant of PTC, tumor diameter, recurrence risk class according to the American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk stratification system, use of radioiodine therapy, and initial therapy response, as suggested by ATA guidelines. Results: At 1-year follow-up, 1831 patients (81.8%) had an excellent response, 296 (13.2%) had an indeterminate response, 55 (2.5%) had a biochemical incomplete response, and 55 (2.5%) had a structural incomplete response. Statistical analysis suggested that mETE (odds ratio [OR] 1.16, p=0.65), tumor size >2 cm (OR 1.45, p=0.34), aggressive PTC histology (OR 0.55, p=0.15), and age at diagnosis (OR 0.90, p=0.32) were not significant risk factors for a worse initial therapy response. When evaluating the combination of mETE, tumor size, and aggressive PTC histology, the presence of mETE with a >2 cm tumor was significantly associated with a worse outcome (OR 5.27, 95% CI, p=0.014). The role of radioiodine ablation in patients with mETE was also evaluated. When considering radioiodine treatment, propensity score-based matching was performed, and no significant differences were found between treated and non-treated patients (p=0.24). Conclusions: This study failed to show the prognostic value of mETE in predicting initial therapy response in a large cohort of PTC patients without lymph node metastases. The study suggests that the combination of tumor diameter and mETE can be used as a reliable prognostic factor for persistence and could be easily applied in clinical practice to manage PTC patients with low-to-intermediate risk of recurrent/persistent disease

Beyond averages - Fairness in an economy that works for people

Growing disparities on multiple socio-economic dimensions have contributed to a sense of unfairness and discontent in Europe. Fairness is a subjective phenomenon, but the far-reaching consequences of perceptions of unfairness warrant a closer look at its drivers and underlying dynamics. The report, written before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, analyses some of the most pertinent dimensions of fairness in relation to the agenda for a fair, inclusive and social European Union. Income inequality, educational inequality and the challenges facing existing welfare state arrangements are discussed from a pre-crisis perspective. Thus, the report gives a snapshot of the state of fairness in Europe before the COVID-19 outbreak and provides a benchmark against which some of the consequences of the current situation can be evaluated.JRC.I.1-Monitoring, Indicators & Impact Evaluatio