Volcanic Contribution to Decadal Changes in Tropospheric Temperature

Despite continued growth in atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, global mean surface and tropospheric temperatures have shown slower warming since 1998 than previously. Possible explanations for the slow-down include internal climate variability, external cooling influences and observational errors. Several recent modelling studies have examined the contribution of early twenty-first-century volcanic eruptions to the muted surface warming. Here we present a detailed analysis of the impact of recent volcanic forcing on tropospheric temperature, based on observations as well as climate model simulations. We identify statistically significant correlations between observations of stratospheric aerosol optical depth and satellite-based estimates of both tropospheric temperature and short-wave fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. We show that climate model simulations without the effects of early twenty-first-century volcanic eruptions overestimate the tropospheric warming observed since 1998. In two simulations with more realistic volcanic influences following the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, differences between simulated and observed tropospheric temperature trends over the period 1998 to 2012 are up to 15% smaller, with large uncertainties in the magnitude of the effect. To reduce these uncertainties, better observations of eruption-specific properties of volcanic aerosols are needed, as well as improved representation of these eruption-specific properties in climate model simulations

Small global-mean cooling due to volcanic radiative forcing

In both the observational record and atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of the last ∼∼ 150 years, short-lived negative radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosol, following explosive eruptions, causes sudden global-mean cooling of up to ∼∼ 0.3 K. This is about five times smaller than expected from the transient climate response parameter (TCRP, K of global-mean surface air temperature change per W m−2 of radiative forcing increase) evaluated under atmospheric CO2 concentration increasing at 1 % yr−1. Using the step model (Good et al. in Geophys Res Lett 38:L01703, 2011. doi:10.​1029/​2010GL045208), we confirm the previous finding (Held et al. in J Clim 23:2418–2427, 2010. doi:10.​1175/​2009JCLI3466.​1) that the main reason for the discrepancy is the damping of the response to short-lived forcing by the thermal inertia of the upper ocean. Although the step model includes this effect, it still overestimates the volcanic cooling simulated by AOGCMs by about 60 %. We show that this remaining discrepancy can be explained by the magnitude of the volcanic forcing, which may be smaller in AOGCMs (by 30 % for the HadCM3 AOGCM) than in off-line calculations that do not account for rapid cloud adjustment, and the climate sensitivity parameter, which may be smaller than for increasing CO2 (40 % smaller than for 4 × CO2 in HadCM3)

Control of Centrin Stability by Aurora A

Aurora A is an oncogenic serine/threonine kinase which can cause cell transformation and centrosome amplification when over-expressed. Human breast tumors show excess Aurora A and phospho-centrin in amplified centrosomes. Here, we show that Aurora A mediates the phosphorylation of and localizes with centrin at the centrosome, with both proteins reaching maximum abundance from prophase through metaphase, followed by their precipitous loss in late stages of mitosis. Over-expression of Aurora A results in excess phospho-centrin and centrosome amplification. In contrast, centrosome amplification is not seen in cells over-expressing Aurora A in the presence of a recombinant centrin mutant lacking the serine phosphorylation site at residue 170. Expression of a kinase dead Aurora A results in a decrease in mitotic index and abrogation of centrin phosphorylation. Finally, a recombinant centrin mutation that mimics centrin phosphorylation increases centrin's stability against APC/C-mediated proteasomal degradation. Taken together, these results suggest that the stability of centrin is regulated in part by Aurora A, and that excess phosphorylated centrin may promote centrosome amplification in cancer

Reconstructing 800 years of summer temperatures in Scotland from tree rings

We thank The Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland for providing funding for Miloš Rydval’s PhD. The Scottish pine network expansion has been an ongoing task since 2007 and funding must be acknowledged to the following projects: EU project ‘Millennium’ (017008-2), Leverhulme Trust project ‘RELiC: Reconstructing 8000 years of Environmental and Landscape change in the Cairngorms (F/00 268/BG)’ and the NERC project ‘SCOT2K: Reconstructing 2000 years of Scottish climate from tree rings (NE/K003097/1)’.This study presents a summer temperature reconstruction using Scots pine tree-ring chronologies for Scotland allowing the placement of current regional temperature changes in a longer-term context. ‘Living-tree’ chronologies were extended using ’subfossil’ samples extracted from nearshore lake sediments resulting in a composite chronology > 800 years in length. The North Cairngorms (NCAIRN) reconstruction was developed from a set of composite blue intensity high-pass and ring-width low-pass chronologies with a range of detrending and disturbance correction procedures. Calibration against July-August mean temperature explains 56.4% of the instrumental data variance over 1866-2009 and is well verified. Spatial correlations reveal strong coherence with temperatures over the British Isles, parts of western Europe, southern Scandinavia and northern parts of the Iberian Peninsula. NCAIRN suggests that the recent summer-time warming in Scotland is likely not unique when compared to multi-decadal warm periods observed in the 1300s, 1500s, and 1730s, although trends before the mid-16th century should be interpreted with some caution due to greater uncertainty. Prominent cold periods were identified from the 16th century until the early 1800s – agreeing with the so-called Little Ice Age observed in other tree-ring reconstructions from Europe - with the 1690s identified as the coldest decade in the record. The reconstruction shows a significant cooling response one year following volcanic eruptions although this result is sensitive to the datasets used to identify such events. In fact, the extreme cold (and warm) years observed in NCAIRN appear more related to internal forcing of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Erythroid-Specific Transcriptional Changes in PBMCs from Pulmonary Hypertension Patients

Gene expression profiling of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) is a powerful tool for the identification of surrogate markers involved in disease processes. The hypothesis tested in this study was that chronic exposure of PBMCs to a hypertensive environment in remodeled pulmonary vessels would be reflected by specific transcriptional changes in these cells.The transcript profiles of PBMCs from 30 idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension patients (IPAH), 19 patients with systemic sclerosis without pulmonary hypertension (SSc), 42 scleroderma-associated pulmonary arterial hypertensio patients (SSc-PAH), and 8 patients with SSc complicated by interstitial lung disease and pulmonary hypertension (SSc-PH-ILD) were compared to the gene expression profiles of PBMCs from 41 healthy individuals. Multiple gene expression signatures were identified which could distinguish various disease groups from controls. One of these signatures, specific for erythrocyte maturation, is enriched specifically in patients with PH. This association was validated in multiple published datasets. The erythropoiesis signature was strongly correlated with hemodynamic measures of increasing disease severity in IPAH patients. No significant correlation of the same type was noted for SSc-PAH patients, this despite a clear signature enrichment within this group overall. These findings suggest an association of the erythropoiesis signature in PBMCs from patients with PH with a variable presentation among different subtypes of disease.In PH, the expansion of immature red blood cell precursors may constitute a response to the increasingly hypoxic conditions prevalent in this syndrome. A correlation of this erythrocyte signature with more severe hypertension cases may provide an important biomarker of disease progression

Digital ulcers in SSc treated with oral treprostinil: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study with open-label follow-up

Background Prostacyclins are routinely used to treat vascular features of systemic sclerosis (SSc, scleroderma) but require parenteral infusion or inhalation. This study evaluated the safety and efficacy of oral treprostinil in digital ulcers secondary to SSc. Methods This was a randomized (1:1) placebo-controlled, multicenter study in adults with SSc and at least one active digital ulcer at entry. Oral treprostinil was administered twice daily and titrated to maximum tolerated dose with clinical assessments at Weeks 5, 10, 15 and 20. The primary endpoint was change in net digital ulcer burden. Secondary outcomes included ulcer healing and prevention, measures of hand function, quality of life, Raynaud phenomenon and global assessments. Simplified data were gathered during open-label follow up. Results Enrolled were 147 patients (109F/38M), mean age 48.8 years with SSc of mean duration 10.5 years. At week 20, mean net ulcer burden was reduced −0.43 ulcers on treprostinil (1.80 vs. 1.37) and −0.10 ulcers on placebo (1.61 vs. 1.51; p = 0.20). There were no effects on ulcer healing or prevention, and small, inconsistent effects on Raynaud phenomenon, global assessment, hand function and quality-of-life measures. In open-label follow-up, there was a continued, small reduction in net ulcer burden (-0.52 month 3, n = 104; −0.64 month 12, n = 36). Common adverse effects were headache, nausea, diarrhea, jaw pain, flushing and other gastrointestinal symptoms. Conclusions Administration of oral treprostinil twice daily over 20 weeks was associated with small and statistically insignificant reduction in net ulcer burden in comparison to placebo

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability