On the role of buoyant flexure in glacier calving

Interactions between glaciers and the ocean are key for understanding the dynamics of the cryosphere in the climate system. Here we investigate the role of hydrostatic forces in glacier calving. We develop a mathematical model to account for the elastic deformation of glaciers in response to three effects: (i) marine and lake-terminating glaciers tend to enter water with a nonzero slope, resulting in upward flexure around the grounding line; (ii) horizontal pressure imbalances at the terminus are known to cause hydrostatic in-plane stresses and downward acting torque; (iii) submerged ice protrusions at the glacier front may induce additional buoyancy forces that can cause calving. Our model provides theoretical estimates of the importance of each effect and suggests geometric and material conditions under which a given glacier will calve from hydrostatic flexure. We find good agreement with observations. This work sheds light on the intricate processes involved in glacier calving and can be hoped to improve our ability to model and predict future changes in the ice-climate system

False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss

Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there

Prospects for seasonal forecasting of iceberg distributions in the North Atlantic

An efficient approach to ocean–iceberg modelling provides a means for assessing prospects for seasonal forecasting of iceberg distributions in the northwest Atlantic, where icebergs present a hazard to mariners each spring. The stand-alone surface (SAS) module that is part of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) is coupled with the NEMO iceberg module (ICB) in a “SAS-ICB” configuration with horizontal resolution of 0.25°. Iceberg conditions are investigated for three recent years, 2013–2015, characterized by widely varying iceberg distributions. The relative simplicity of SAS-ICB facilitates efficient investigation of sensitivity to iceberg fluxes and prevailing environmental conditions. SAS-ICB is provided with daily surface ocean analysis fields from the global Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) of the Met Office. Surface currents, temperatures and height together determine iceberg advection and melting rates. Iceberg drift is further governed by surface winds, which are updated every 3 h. The flux of icebergs from the Greenland ice sheet is determined from engineering control theory and specified as an upstream flux in the vicinity of Davis Strait for January or February. Simulated iceberg distributions are evaluated alongside observations reported and archived by the International Ice Patrol. The best agreement with observations is obtained when variability in both upstream iceberg flux and oceanographic/atmospheric conditions is taken into account. Including interactive icebergs in an ocean–atmosphere model with sufficient seasonal forecast skill, and provided with accurate winter iceberg fluxes, it is concluded that seasonal forecasts of spring/summer iceberg conditions for the northwest Atlantic are now a realistic prospect

Iceberg melting substantially modifies oceanic heat flux towards a major Greenlandic tidewater glacier

Fjord dynamics influence oceanic heat flux to the Greenland ice sheet. Submarine iceberg melting releases large volumes of freshwater within Greenland’s fjords, yet its impact on fjord dynamics remains unclear. We modify an ocean model to simulate submarine iceberg melting in Sermilik Fjord, east Greenland. Here we find that submarine iceberg melting cools and freshens the fjord by up to ~5 °C and 0.7 psu in the upper 100-200 m. The release of freshwater from icebergs drives an overturning circulation, resulting in a ~10% increase in net up-fjord heat flux. In addition, we find that submarine iceberg melting accounts for over 95% of heat used for ice melt in Sermilik Fjord. Our results highlight the substantial impact that icebergs have on the dynamics of a major Greenlandic fjord, demonstrating the importance of including related processes in studies that seek to quantify interactions between the ice sheet and the ocean

The 'Sticky Elastica': delamination blisters beyond small deformations

We consider the form of an elastic loop adhered to a rigid substrate: the 'Sticky Elastica'. In contrast to previous studies of the shape of delamination 'blisters', the theory developed accounts for deflections with large slope (i.e. geometrically nonlinear). Starting from the classical Euler Elastica we provide numerical results for the dimensions of such blisters for a variety of end-end confinements and develop asymptotic expressions that reproduce these results well, even up to the point of self-contact. Interestingly, we find that the width of such blisters does not grow monotonically with increased confinement. Our theoretical predictions are confirmed by simple desktop experiments and suggest a new method for the measurement of the elastocapillary length for deformations that cannot be considered small. We discuss the implications of our results for applications such as flexible electronics. This journal is © 2013 The Royal Society of Chemistry

False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss

Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there