Anticipating the species jump: surveillance for emerging viral threats.

Zoonotic disease surveillance is typically triggered after animal pathogens have already infected humans. Are there ways to identify high-risk viruses before they emerge in humans? If so, then how and where can identifications be made and by what methods? These were the fundamental questions driving a workshop to examine the future of predictive surveillance for viruses that might jump from animals to infect humans. Virologists, ecologists and computational biologists from academia, federal government and non-governmental organizations discussed opportunities as well as obstacles to the prediction of species jumps using genetic and ecological data from viruses and their hosts, vectors and reservoirs. This workshop marked an important first step towards envisioning both scientific and organizational frameworks for this future capability. Canine parvoviruses as well as seasonal H3N2 and pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses are discussed as exemplars that suggest what to look for in anticipating species jumps. To answer the question of where to look, prospects for discovering emerging viruses among wildlife, bats, rodents, arthropod vectors and occupationally exposed humans are discussed. Finally, opportunities and obstacles are identified and accompanied by suggestions for how to look for species jumps. Taken together, these findings constitute the beginnings of a conceptual framework for achieving a virus surveillance capability that could predict future species jumps

Socio-geography of human mobility: a study using longitudinal mobile phone data

A relationship between people’s mobility and their social networks is presented based on an analysis of calling and mobility traces for one year of anonymized call detail records of over one million mobile phone users in Portugal. We find that about 80% of places visited are within just 20 km of their nearest (geographical) social ties’ locations. This figure rises to 90% at a ‘geo-social radius’ of 45 km. In terms of their travel scope, people are geographically closer to their weak ties than strong ties. Specifically, they are 15% more likely to be at some distance away from their weak ties than strong ties. The likelihood of being at some distance from social ties increases with the population density, and the rates of increase are higher for shorter geo-social radii. In addition, we find that area population density is indicative of geo-social radius where denser areas imply shorter radii. For example, in urban areas such as Lisbon and Porto, the geo-social radius is approximately 7 km and this increases to approximately 15 km for less densely populated areas such as Parades and Santa Maria da Feira

Using data envelopment analysis to measure the extent of technical efficiency of public health centres in Ghana

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has been used to analyze the efficiency of the health sector in the developed world for sometime now. However, in developing economies and particularly in Africa only a few studies have applied DEA in measuring the efficiency of their health care systems.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study uses the DEA method, to calculate the technical efficiency of 89 randomly sampled health centers in Ghana. The aim was to determine the degree of efficiency of health centers and recommend performance targets for the inefficient facilities.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The findings showed that 65% of health centers were technically inefficient and so were using resources that they did not actually need.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results broadly point to grave inefficiency in the health care delivery system of public health centers and that significant amounts of resources could be saved if measures were put in place to curb the waste.</p

Gabapentin for chronic pelvic pain in women (GaPP2): a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background: Chronic pelvic pain affects 2–24% of women worldwide and evidence for medical treatments is scarce. Gabapentin is effective in treating some chronic pain conditions. We aimed to measure the efficacy and safety of gabapentin in women with chronic pelvic pain and no obvious pelvic pathology. Methods: We performed a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled randomised trial in 39 UK hospital centres. Eligible participants were women with chronic pelvic pain (with or without dysmenorrhoea or dyspareunia) of at least 3 months duration. Inclusion criteria were 18–50 years of age, use or willingness to use contraception to avoid pregnancy, and no obvious pelvic pathology at laparoscopy, which must have taken place at least 2 weeks before consent but less than 36 months previously. Participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive gabapentin (titrated to a maximum dose of 2700 mg daily) or matching placebo for 16 weeks. The online randomisation system minimised allocations by presence or absence of dysmenorrhoea, psychological distress, current use of hormonal contraceptives, and hospital centre. The appearance, route, and administration of the assigned intervention were identical in both groups. Patients, clinicians, and research staff were unaware of the trial group assignments throughout the trial. Participants were unmasked once they had provided all outcome data at week 16–17, or sooner if a serious adverse event requiring knowledge of the study drug occurred. The dual primary outcome measures were worst and average pain scores assessed separately on a numerical rating scale in weeks 13–16 after randomisation, in the intention-to-treat population. Self-reported adverse events were assessed according to intention-to-treat principles. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISCRTN77451762. Findings: Participants were screened between Nov 30, 2015, and March 6, 2019, and 306 were randomly assigned (153 to gabapentin and 153 to placebo). There were no significant between-group differences in both worst and average numerical rating scale (NRS) pain scores at 13–16 weeks after randomisation. The mean worst NRS pain score was 7·1 (standard deviation [SD] 2·6) in the gabapentin group and 7·4 (SD 2·2) in the placebo group. Mean change from baseline was −1·4 (SD 2·3) in the gabapentin group and −1·2 (SD 2·1) in the placebo group (adjusted mean difference −0·20 [97·5% CI −0·81 to 0·42]; p=0·47). The mean average NRS pain score was 4·3 (SD 2·3) in the gabapentin group and 4·5 (SD 2·2) in the placebo group. Mean change from baseline was −1·1 (SD 2·0) in the gabapentin group and −0·9 (SD 1·8) in the placebo group (adjusted mean difference −0·18 [97·5% CI −0·71 to 0·35]; p=0·45). More women had a serious adverse event in the gabapentin group than in the placebo group (10 [7%] of 153 in the gabapentin group compared with 3 [2%] of 153 in the placebo group; p=0·04). Dizziness, drowsiness, and visual disturbances were more common in the gabapentin group. Interpretation: This study was adequately powered, but treatment with gabapentin did not result in significantly lower pain scores in women with chronic pelvic pain, and was associated with higher rates of side-effects than placebo. Given the increasing reports of abuse and evidence of potential harms associated with gabapentin use, it is important that clinicians consider alternative treatment options to off-label gabapentin for the management of chronic pelvic pain and no obvious pelvic pathology. Funding: National Institute for Health Research

Cyclical changes in seroprevalence of leptospirosis in California sea lions: endemic and epidemic disease in one host species?

BackgroundLeptospirosis is a zoonotic disease infecting a broad range of mammalian hosts, and is re-emerging globally. California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) have experienced recurrent outbreaks of leptospirosis since 1970, but it is unknown whether the pathogen persists in the sea lion population or is introduced repeatedly from external reservoirs.MethodsWe analyzed serum samples collected over an 11-year period from 1344 California sea lions that stranded alive on the California coast, using the microscopic agglutination test (MAT) for antibodies to Leptospira interrogans serovar Pomona. We evaluated seroprevalence among yearlings as a measure of incidence in the population, and characterized antibody persistence times based on temporal changes in the distribution of titer scores. We conducted multinomial logistic regression to determine individual risk factors for seropositivity with high and low titers.ResultsThe serosurvey revealed cyclical patterns in seroprevalence to L. interrogans serovar Pomona, with 4-5 year periodicity and peak seroprevalence above 50%. Seroprevalence in yearling sea lions was an accurate index of exposure among all age classses, and indicated on-going exposure to leptospires in non-outbreak years. Analysis of titer decay rates showed that some individuals probably maintain high titers for more than a year following exposure.ConclusionThis study presents results of an unprecedented long-term serosurveillance program in marine mammals. Our results suggest that leptospirosis is endemic in California sea lions, but also causes periodic epidemics of acute disease. The findings call into question the classical dichotomy between maintenance hosts of leptospirosis, which experience chronic but largely asymptomatic infections, and accidental hosts, which suffer acute illness or death as a result of disease spillover from reservoir species

First Steps in Eukaryogenesis: Physical phenomena in the origin and evolution of chromosome structure

Our present understanding of the origin and evolution of chromosomes differs considerably from current understanding of the origin and evolution of the cell itself. Chromosome origins have been less prominent in research, as the emphasis has not shifted so far appreciably from the phenomenon of primeval nucleic acid encapsulation to that of the origin of gene organization, expression, and regulation. In this work we discuss some reasons why preliminary steps in this direction are being taken. We have been led to examine properties that have contributed to raise the ancestral prokaryotic programmes to a level where we can appreciate in eukaryotes a clear departure from earlier themes in the evolution of the cell from the last common ancestor. We shift our point of view from the evolution of cell morphology to the point of view of the genes. In particular, we focus attention on possible physical bases for the way transmission of information has evolved in eukaryotes, namely, the inactivation of whole chromosomes. The special case of the inactivation of the X chromosome in mammals is discussed, paying particular attention to the physical process of the spread of X inactivation in monotremes (platypus and echidna). When experimental data is unavailable some theoretical analysis is possible based on the idea that in certain cases collective phenomena in genetics, rather than chemical detail, are better correlates of complex chemical processes

Scaphoid Waist Internal Fixation for Fractures Trial (SWIFFT) protocol : a pragmatic multi-centre randomised controlled trial of cast treatment versus surgical fixation for the treatment of bi-cortical, minimally displaced fractures of the scaphoid waist in adults

BACKGROUND: A scaphoid fracture is the most common type of carpal fracture affecting young active people. The optimal management of this fracture is uncertain. When treated with a cast, 88 to 90 % of these fractures unite; however, for the remaining 10-12 % the non-union almost invariably leads to arthritis. The alternative is surgery to fix the scaphoid with a screw at the outset. METHODS/DESIGN: We will conduct a randomised controlled trial (RCT) of 438 adult patients with a "clear" and "bicortical" scaphoid waist fracture on plain radiographs to evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of plaster cast treatment (with fixation of those that fail to unite) versus early surgical fixation. The plaster cast treatment will be immobilisation in a below elbow cast for 6 to 10 weeks followed by mobilisation. If non-union is confirmed on plain radiographs and/or Computerised Tomogram at 6 to 12 weeks, then urgent surgical fixation will be performed. This is being compared with immediate surgical fixation with surgeons using their preferred technique and implant. These treatments will be undertaken in trauma units across the United Kingdom. The primary outcome and end-point will be the Patient Rated Wrist Evaluation (a patient self-reported assessment of wrist pain and function) at 52 weeks and also measured at 6, 12, 26 weeks and 5 years. Secondary outcomes include an assessment of radiological union of the fracture; quality of life; recovery of wrist range and strength; and complications. We will also qualitatively investigate patient experiences of their treatment. DISCUSSION: Scaphoid fractures are an important public health problem as they predominantly affect young active individuals in the more productive working years of their lives. Non-union, if untreated, can lead to arthritis which can disable patients at a very young age. There is a rapidly increasing trend for immediate surgical fixation of these fractures but there is insufficient evidence from existing RCTs to support this. The SWIFFT Trial is a rigorously designed and adequately powered study which aims to contribute to the evidence-base to inform clinical decisions for the treatment of this common fracture in adults. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Register ( ISRCTN67901257 ). Date registration assigned was 13/02/2013

Analysis of the Neurotoxin Complex Genes in Clostridium botulinum A1-A4 and B1 Strains: BoNT/A3, /Ba4 and /B1 Clusters Are Located within Plasmids

BACKGROUND: Clostridium botulinum and related clostridial species express extremely potent neurotoxins known as botulinum neurotoxins (BoNTs) that cause long-lasting, potentially fatal intoxications in humans and other mammals. The amino acid variation within the BoNT is used to categorize the species into seven immunologically distinct BoNT serotypes (A-G) which are further divided into subtypes. The BoNTs are located within two generally conserved gene arrangements known as botulinum progenitor complexes which encode toxin-associated proteins involved in toxin stability and expression. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Because serotype A and B strains are responsible for the vast majority of human botulism cases worldwide, the location, arrangement and sequences of genes from eight different toxin complexes representing four different BoNT/A subtypes (BoNT/A1-Ba4) and one BoNT/B1 strain were examined. The bivalent Ba4 strain contained both the BoNT/A4 and BoNT/bvB toxin clusters. The arrangements of the BoNT/A3 and BoNT/A4 subtypes differed from the BoNT/A1 strains and were similar to those of BoNT/A2. However, unlike the BoNT/A2 subtype, the toxin complex genes of BoNT/A3 and BoNT/A4 were found within large plasmids and not within the chromosome. In the Ba4 strain, both BoNT toxin clusters (A4 and bivalent B) were located within the same 270 kb plasmid, separated by 97 kb. Complete genomic sequencing of the BoNT/B1 strain also revealed that its toxin complex genes were located within a 149 kb plasmid and the BoNT/A3 complex is within a 267 kb plasmid. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Despite their size differences and the BoNT genes they contain, the three plasmids containing these toxin cluster genes share significant sequence identity. The presence of partial insertion sequence (IS) elements, evidence of recombination/gene duplication events, and the discovery of the BoNT/A3, BoNT/Ba4 and BoNT/B1 toxin complex genes within plasmids illustrate the different mechanisms by which these genes move among diverse genetic backgrounds of C. botulinum

The importance of imprinting in the human placenta.

As a field of study, genomic imprinting has grown rapidly in the last 20 years, with a growing figure of around 100 imprinted genes known in the mouse and approximately 50 in the human. The imprinted expression of genes may be transient and highly tissue-specific, and there are potentially hundreds of other, as yet undiscovered, imprinted transcripts. The placenta is notable amongst mammalian organs for its high and prolific expression of imprinted genes. This review discusses the development of the human placenta and focuses on the function of imprinting in this organ. Imprinting is potentially a mechanism to balance parental resource allocation and it plays an important role in growth. The placenta, as the interface between mother and fetus, is central to prenatal growth control. The expression of genes subject to parental allelic expression bias has, over the years, been shown to be essential for the normal development and physiology of the placenta. In this review we also discuss the significance of genes that lack conservation of imprinting between mice and humans, genes whose imprinted expression is often placental-specific. Finally, we illustrate the importance of imprinting in the postnatal human in terms of several human imprinting disorders, with consideration of the brain as a key organ for imprinted gene expression after birth