On the Approximation Performance of Fictitious Play in Finite Games

We study the performance of Fictitious Play, when used as a heuristic for finding an approximate Nash equilibrium of a 2-player game. We exhibit a class of 2-player games having payoffs in the range [0,1] that show that Fictitious Play fails to find a solution having an additive approximation guarantee significantly better than 1/2. Our construction shows that for n times n games, in the worst case both players may perpetually have mixed strategies whose payoffs fall short of the best response by an additive quantity 1/2 - O(1/n^(1-delta)) for arbitrarily small delta. We also show an essentially matching upper bound of 1/2 - O(1/n)

Ensemble Concerts: Jazz Combos I and II, November 14, 2023

Kemp Recital HallNovember 14, 2023Tuesday Evening7:30 p.m

Contributions of anterior cingulate cortex and basolateral amygdala to decision confidence and learning under uncertainty.

The subjective sense of certainty, or confidence, in ambiguous sensory cues can alter the interpretation of reward feedback and facilitate learning. We trained rats to report the orientation of ambiguous visual stimuli according to a spatial stimulus-response rule that must be learned. Following choice, rats could wait a self-timed delay for reward or initiate a new trial. Waiting times increase with discrimination accuracy, demonstrating that this measure can be used as a proxy for confidence. Chemogenetic silencing of BLA shortens waiting times overall whereas ACC inhibition renders waiting times insensitive to confidence-modulating attributes of visual stimuli, suggesting contribution of ACC but not BLA to confidence computations. Subsequent reversal learning is enhanced by confidence. Both ACC and BLA inhibition block this enhancement but via differential adjustments in learning strategies and consistent use of learned rules. Altogether, we demonstrate dissociable roles for ACC and BLA in transmitting confidence and learning under uncertainty

Coffee consumption and prostate cancer risk: further evidence for inverse relationship

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Higher consumption of coffee intake has recently been linked with reduced risk of aggressive prostate cancer (PC) incidence, although meta-analysis of other studies that examine the association between coffee consumption and overall PC risk remains inconclusive. Only one recent study investigated the association between coffee intake and grade-specific incidence of PC, further evidence is required to understand the aetiology of aggressive PCs. Therefore, we conducted a prospective study to examine the relationship between coffee intake and overall as well as grade-specific PC risk.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a prospective cohort study of 6017 men who were enrolled in the Collaborative cohort study in the UK between 1970 and 1973 and followed up to 31st December 2007. Cox Proportional Hazards Models were used to evaluate the association between coffee consumption and overall, as well as Gleason grade-specific, PC incidence.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Higher coffee consumption was inversely associated with risk of high grade but not with overall risk of PC. Men consuming 3 or more cups of coffee per day experienced 55% lower risk of high Gleason grade disease compared with non-coffee drinkers in analysis adjusted for age and social class (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.23-0.90, p value for trend 0.01). This association changed a little after additional adjustment for Body Mass Index, smoking, cholesterol level, systolic blood pressure, tea intake and alcohol consumption.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Coffee consumption reduces the risk of aggressive PC but not the overall risk.</p

Posit and Floating-Point Based Izhikevich Neuron: A Comparison of Arithmetic

Preprint submitted to Elsevier. It has not been certified by peer review.Reduced precision number formats are gaining popularity in many areas of computational science, due to their potential to improve energy efficiency, silicon use, and speed. However, this is often at the expense of introducing arithmetic errors which affect the accuracy of a system. The optimal balance must be struck, judiciously choosing a number format using as few bits as possible, while minimising accuracy loss. In this study, we examine one such format, posit arithmetic as a replacement for floating-point when conducting spiking neuron simulations, specifically using the Izhikevich neuron model. This model is capable of simulating complex neural firing behaviours, 20 of which were originally identified by Izhikevich and are used in this study. We compare the accuracy, spike count, and spike timing of the two arithmetic systems at different bit-depths against a 64-bit floating-point gold-standard. Additionally, we test a rescaled set of Izhikevich equations to mitigate against arithmetic errors by taking advantage of posit arithmetic’s tapered accuracy.Our findings indicate that there is no difference in performance between 32-bit posit, 32-bit floating-point, and our reference standard for 95% of the tested firing types. However, at 16-bit, both arithmetic systems diverge from the 64-bit reference, albeit non-uniformly. For instance, the posit implementation demonstrates an accumulated spike timing error of 0.5ms over a 1000ms simulation compared to 9ms for floating-point – an 18x improvement using posit arithmetic for regular (tonic) spiking. This finding holds particular importance given the prevalence of this particular firing type in specific regions of the brain. Furthermore, when we rescale the neuron equations, this error is eliminated altogether. Hence, our results demonstrate that posit arithmetic is not only a viable replacement for 64-bit floating-point in these simulations, it can do so while using 4× fewer bits. As a Posit Arithmetic Unit has similar area to a Floating Point Unit with the same bit width, this constitutes a significant saving of hardware resources while maintaining full accuracy compared to 64-bit floating-point.TFH was part funded by Sundance Multiprocesssor Ltd., UK and an EPSRC Doctoral Training Partnerships (DTP) grant. JK was funded by the EPSRC (grant EP/V052241/1)

Willingness to participate in future HIV prevention studies among gay and bisexual men in Scotland, UK: a challenge for intervention trials

This article examines willingness to participate in future HIV prevention research among gay and bisexual men in Scotland, UK. Anonymous, self-complete questionnaires and Orasure Gäó oral fluid samples were collected in commercial gay venues. 1,320 men were eligible for inclusion. 78.2% reported willingness to participate in future HIV prevention research; 64.6% for an HIV vaccine, 57.4% for a behaviour change study, and 53.0% for a rectal microbicide. In multivariate analysis, for HIV vaccine research, greater age, minority ethnicity, and not providing an oral fluid sample were associated with lower willingness; heterosexual orientation and not providing an oral fluid sample were for microbicides; higher education and greater HIV treatment optimism were for behaviour change. STI testing remained associated with being more willing to participate in microbicide research and frequent gay scene use remained associated with being more willing to participate in behaviour change research. Having an STI in the past 12 months remained significantly associated with being willing to participate in all three study types. There were no associations between sexual risk behaviour and willingness. Although most men expressed willingness to participate in future research, recruitment of high-risk men, who have the potential to benefit most, is likely to be more challenging

Physical Characteristics Explain Ball-Carrying Capability in Sub-Elite Rugby Union Players

Purpose: The aims of the present study were two-fold: (i) to investigate the relationship between physical characteristics and the game statistics associated with ball-carrying capability amongst sub-elite rugby union players, and (ii) to predict the level of change in these physical characteristics required to improve the associated game statistic via regression analysis. Methods: Thirty-eight senior professional players (forwards, n = 22; backs, n = 16) were assessed for body mass (BM), back squat (BS) single-repetition maximum (1RM) normalised to BM (1RM/BM), 10 m sprint velocity (S10), 10 m sprint momentum (SM10), and the game statistics from 22 games within the 2019/20 RFU Championship season. The relationship between these measures and the predicted level of change in a physical measure required to improve the total number of the associated game statistic by one were assessed by Pearson’s correlation coefficient and simple regression analyses. Results: In forwards, an ~ 11.5% reduction in BM, an ~ 11.8% improvement in BS 1RM/BM, or an ~ 11.5% increase in S10 was required to improve the game statistics associated with ball-carrying capability. In backs, a ~ 19.3% increase in BM or a ~ 15.6% improvement in SM10 was required. Conclusions: These findings demonstrate that improvements in lower-body relative strength, acceleration performance, and position-specific alterations in body mass are required to maximise the ball-carrying capability and therefore match outcome of sub-elite rugby union players

Thermal Behavior of Benzoic Acid/lsonicotinamide Binary Cocrystals

A comprehensive study of the thermal behavior of the 1:1 and 2:1 benzoic acid/isonicotinamide cocrystals is reported. The 1:1 material shows a simple unit cell expansion followed by melting upon heating. The 2:1 crystal exhibits more complex behavior. Its unit cell first expands upon heating, as a result of C–H···π interactions being lengthened. It then is converted into the 1:1 crystal, as demonstrated by significant changes in its X-ray diffraction pattern. The loss of 1 equiv of benzoic acid is confirmed by thermogravimetric analysis–mass spectrometry. Hot stage microscopy confirms that, as intuitively expected, the transformation begins at the crystal surface. The temperature at which conversion occurs is highly dependent on the sample mass and geometry, being reduced when the sample is under a gas flow or has a greater exposed surface area but increased when the heating rate is elevated

Near surface nutrient and phytoplankton distribution in the Drake Passage during early December

Nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton species composition in near surface samples were studied along a S-N gradient in the Drake Passage, in early December 1984. Nitrate concentrations were much lower than usually previously reported from circum-Antarctic waters. Comparison of dissolved nutrient concentrations with growth requirements of Antarctic plankton algae suggests potential limitation of at least some species by nitrate or silicate. The taxonomic composition of the phytoplankton in our samples seemed to be partially controlled by competition for limiting nutrients

The role of the helper lipid on the DNA transfection efficiency of lipopolyplex formulations.

Multifunctional, lipopolyplex formulations comprising a mixture of cationic liposomes and cationic, receptor-targeting peptides have potential use in gene therapy applications. Lipopolyplex formulations described here are typically far more efficient transfection agents than binary lipoplex or polyplex formulations. It has been shown previously that the peptide component mediates both DNA packaging and targeting of the nanoparticle while in this report we investigate the contribution of the lipid component. We hypothesised that the lipid components synergise with the peptides in the transfection process by promoting endosomal escape after lipid bilayer fusion. Lipopolyplexes were prepared with cationic liposomes comprising DOTAP with either neutral lipid DOPE or DOPC. DOPE promotes fusogenic, inverted hexagonal lipid structures while DOPC promotes more stable laminar structures. Lipopolyplexes containing DOPE showed substantially higher transfection efficiency than those formulated with DOPC, both in vitro and in vivo. DOPE-containing lipopolyplexes showed rapid endosomal trafficking and nuclear accumulation of DNA while DOPC-containing formulations remained within the late endo-lysosomal compartments. These findings are consistent with previous finding for the role of DOPE in lipoplexes and support the hypothesis regarding the function of the lipid components in lipopolyplexes. These findings will help to inform future lipopolyplex design, strategies and clinical development processes