Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

Incidence and Risk Factors of Recurrence after Surgery for Pathology-proven Diverticular Disease

Contains fulltext : 69776.pdf (publisher's version ) (Closed access)BACKGROUND: Diverticular disease is a common problem in Western countries. Rationale for elective surgery is to prevent recurrent complicated diverticulitis and to reduce emergency procedures. Recurrent diverticulitis occurs in about 10% after resection. The pathogenesis for recurrence is not completely understood. We studied the incidence and risk factors for recurrence and the overall morbidity and mortality of surgical therapy for diverticular disease. METHODS: Medical records of 183 consecutive patients with pathology-proven diverticulitis were eligible for evaluation. Mean duration of follow-up was 7.2 years. Number of preoperative episodes, emergency or elective surgeries, type of operation, level of anastomosis, postoperative complications, persistent postoperative pain, complications associated with colostomy reversal, and recurrent diverticulitis were noted. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the cumulative probability of recurrence. Cox regression was used to identify possible risk factors for recurrence. RESULTS: The incidence of recurrence was 8.7%, with an estimated risk of recurrence over a 15-year period of 16%. Risk factors associated with recurrence were (younger) age (p < 0.02) and the persistence of postoperative pain (p < 0.005). Persistent abdominal pain after surgery was present in 22%. Eighty percent of patients who needed emergency surgery for acute diverticulitis had no manifestation of diverticular disease prior to surgery. In addition, recurrent diverticulitis was not associated with a higher percentage of emergency procedures. CONCLUSION: Estimated risk of recurrence is high and abdominal complaints after surgical therapy for diverticulitis are frequent. Younger age and persistence of postoperative symptoms predict recurrent diverticulitis after resection. The clinical implication of these findings needs further investigation. The results of this study support the careful selection of patients for surgery for diverticulitis

Evidence for niche adaptation in the genome of the bovine pathogen Streptococcus uberis.

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus uberis, a Gram positive bacterial pathogen responsible for a significant proportion of bovine mastitis in commercial dairy herds, colonises multiple body sites of the cow including the gut, genital tract and mammary gland. Comparative analysis of the complete genome sequence of S. uberis strain 0140J was undertaken to help elucidate the biology of this effective bovine pathogen. RESULTS: The genome revealed 1,825 predicted coding sequences (CDSs) of which 62 were identified as pseudogenes or gene fragments. Comparisons with related pyogenic streptococci identified a conserved core (40%) of orthologous CDSs. Intriguingly, S. uberis 0140J displayed a lower number of mobile genetic elements when compared with other pyogenic streptococci, however bacteriophage-derived islands and a putative genomic island were identified. Comparative genomics analysis revealed most similarity to the genomes of Streptococcus agalactiae and Streptococcus equi subsp. zooepidemicus. In contrast, streptococcal orthologs were not identified for 11% of the CDSs, indicating either unique retention of ancestral sequence, or acquisition of sequence from alternative sources. Functions including transport, catabolism, regulation and CDSs encoding cell envelope proteins were over-represented in this unique gene set; a limited array of putative virulence CDSs were identified. CONCLUSION: S. uberis utilises nutritional flexibility derived from a diversity of metabolic options to successfully occupy a discrete ecological niche. The features observed in S. uberis are strongly suggestive of an opportunistic pathogen adapted to challenging and changing environmental parameters.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Analytic philosophy for biomedical research: the imperative of applying yesterday's timeless messages to today's impasses

The mantra that "the best way to predict the future is to invent it" (attributed to the computer scientist Alan Kay) exemplifies some of the expectations from the technical and innovative sides of biomedical research at present. However, for technical advancements to make real impacts both on patient health and genuine scientific understanding, quite a number of lingering challenges facing the entire spectrum from protein biology all the way to randomized controlled trials should start to be overcome. The proposal in this chapter is that philosophy is essential in this process. By reviewing select examples from the history of science and philosophy, disciplines which were indistinguishable until the mid-nineteenth century, I argue that progress toward the many impasses in biomedicine can be achieved by emphasizing theoretical work (in the true sense of the word 'theory') as a vital foundation for experimental biology. Furthermore, a philosophical biology program that could provide a framework for theoretical investigations is outlined

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

World-wide distributions of lactase persistence alleles and the complex effects of recombination and selection

The genetic trait of lactase persistence (LP) is associated with at least five independent functional single nucleotide variants in a regulatory region about 14 kb upstream of the lactase gene [-13910*T (rs4988235), -13907*G (rs41525747), -13915*G (rs41380347), -14009*G (rs869051967) and -14010*C (rs145946881)]. These alleles have been inferred to have spread recently and present-day frequencies have been attributed to positive selection for the ability of adult humans to digest lactose without risk of symptoms of lactose intolerance. One of the inferential approaches used to estimate the level of past selection has been to determine the extent of haplotype homozygosity (EHH) of the sequence surrounding the SNP of interest. We report here new data on the frequencies of the known LP alleles in the 'Old World' and their haplotype lineages. We examine and confirm EHH of each of the LP alleles in relation to their distinct lineages, but also show marked EHH for one of the older haplotypes that does not carry any of the five LP alleles. The region of EHH of this (B) haplotype exactly coincides with a region of suppressed recombination that is detectable in families as well as in population data, and the results show how such suppression may have exaggerated haplotype-based measures of past selection

Police performance measurement: an annotated bibliography

This study provides information to assist those involved in performance measurement in police organisations. The strategies used to identify the literature are described. Thematic sections cover; general overviews; methodological issues; performance management in other industries; national, international and cross-national studies; frameworks (e.g. Compstat; the Balanced Scorecard); criticisms (particularly unintended consequences); crime-specific measures; practitioner guides; performance evaluation of individual staff; police department plans and evaluations; annotated bibliographies in related areas, and; other literature. Our discussion offers two conclusions: the measures best aligned with performance are typically more expensive, while most operational data should only provide contextual information; the philosophy of open governance should be pursued to promote transparency, accountability and communication to improve police performance

Srf1 Is a Novel Regulator of Phospholipase D Activity and Is Essential to Buffer the Toxic Effects of C16:0 Platelet Activating Factor

During Alzheimer's Disease, sustained exposure to amyloid-β42 oligomers perturbs metabolism of ether-linked glycerophospholipids defined by a saturated 16 carbon chain at the sn-1 position. The intraneuronal accumulation of 1-O-hexadecyl-2-acetyl-sn-glycerophosphocholine (C16:0 PAF), but not its immediate precursor 1-O-hexadecyl-sn-glycerophosphocholine (C16:0 lyso-PAF), participates in signaling tau hyperphosphorylation and compromises neuronal viability. As C16:0 PAF is a naturally occurring lipid involved in cellular signaling, it is likely that mechanisms exist to protect cells against its toxic effects. Here, we utilized a chemical genomic approach to identify key processes specific for regulating the sensitivity of Saccharomyces cerevisiae to alkyacylglycerophosphocholines elevated in Alzheimer's Disease. We identified ten deletion mutants that were hypersensitive to C16:0 PAF and five deletion mutants that were hypersensitive to C16:0 lyso-PAF. Deletion of YDL133w, a previously uncharacterized gene which we have renamed SRF1 (Spo14 Regulatory Factor 1), resulted in the greatest differential sensitivity to C16:0 PAF over C16:0 lyso-PAF. We demonstrate that Srf1 physically interacts with Spo14, yeast phospholipase D (PLD), and is essential for PLD catalytic activity in mitotic cells. Though C16:0 PAF treatment does not impact hydrolysis of phosphatidylcholine in yeast, C16:0 PAF does promote delocalization of GFP-Spo14 and phosphatidic acid from the cell periphery. Furthermore, we demonstrate that, similar to yeast cells, PLD activity is required to protect mammalian neural cells from C16:0 PAF. Together, these findings implicate PLD as a potential neuroprotective target capable of ameliorating disruptions in lipid metabolism in response to accumulating oligomeric amyloid-β42

Study Protocol - Accurate assessment of kidney function in Indigenous Australians: aims and methods of the eGFR Study

Background: There is an overwhelming burden of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease among Indigenous Australians. In this high risk population, it is vital that we are able to measure accurately kidney function. Glomerular filtration rate is the best overall marker of kidney function. However, differences in body build and body composition between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians suggest that creatinine-based estimates of glomerular filtration rate derived for European populations may not be appropriate for Indigenous Australians. The burden of kidney disease is borne disproportionately by Indigenous Australians in central and northern Australia, and there is significant heterogeneity in body build and composition within and amongst these groups. This heterogeneity might differentially affect the accuracy of estimation of glomerular filtration rate between different Indigenous groups. By assessing kidney function in Indigenous Australians from Northern Queensland, Northern Territory and Western Australia, we aim to determine a validated and practical measure of glomerular filtration rate suitable for use in all Indigenous Australians