Determinants of vaccination coverage and consequences for rabies control in Bali, Indonesia

Maintaining high vaccination coverage is key to successful rabies control, but mass dog vaccination can be challenging and population turnover erodes coverage. Declines in rabies incidence following successive island-wide vaccination campaigns in Bali suggest that prospects for controlling and ultimately eliminating rabies are good. Rabies, however, has continued to circulate at low levels. In the push to eliminate rabies from Bali, high coverage needs to be maintained across all areas of the island. We carried out door-to-door (DTD) questionnaire surveys (n = 10,352 dog-owning households) and photographic mark–recapture surveys (536 line transects, 2,597 observations of free-roaming dogs) in 2011–2012 to estimate dog population sizes and assess rabies vaccination coverage and dog demographic characteristics in Bali, Indonesia. The median number of dogs per subvillage unit (banjar) was 43 (range 0–307) for owned dogs estimated from the DTD survey and 17 (range 0–83) for unconfined dogs (including both owned and unowned) from transects. Vaccination coverage of owned dogs was significantly higher in adults (91.4%) compared to juveniles (<1 year, 43.9%), likely due to insufficient targeting of pups and from puppies born subsequent to vaccination campaigns. Juveniles had a 10–70 times greater risk of not being vaccinated in urban, suburban, and rural areas [combined odds ratios (ORs): 9.9–71.1, 95% CI: 8.6–96.0]. Free-roaming owned dogs were also 2–3 times more likely to be not vaccinated compared to those confined (combined Ors: 1.9–3.6, 95% CI: 1.4–5.4), with more dogs being confined in urban (71.2%) than in suburban (16.1%) and rural areas (8.0%). Vaccination coverage estimates from transects were also much lower (30.9%) than household surveys (83.6%), possibly due to loss of collars used to identify the vaccination status of free-roaming dogs, but these unconfined dogs may also include dogs that were unowned or more difficult to vaccinate. Overall, coverage levels were high in the owned dog population, but for future campaigns in Bali to have the highest chance of eliminating rabies, concerted effort should be made to vaccinate free-roaming dogs particularly in suburban and rural areas, with advertising to ensure that owners vaccinate pups. Long-lasting, cheap, and quick methods are needed to mark vaccinated animals and reassure communities of the reach of vaccination campaigns

Network analysis of host–virus communities in bats and rodents reveals determinants of cross-species transmission

Bats are natural reservoirs of several important emerging viruses. Cross-species transmission appears to be quite common among bats, which may contribute to their unique reservoir potential. Therefore, understanding the importance of bats as reservoirs requires examining them in a community context rather than concentrating on individual species. Here, we use a network approach to identify ecological and biological correlates of cross-species virus transmission in bats and rodents, another important host group. We show that given our current knowledge the bat viral sharing network is more connected than the rodent network, suggesting viruses may pass more easily between bat species. We identify host traits associated with important reservoir species: gregarious bats are more likely to share more viruses and bats which migrate regionally are important for spreading viruses through the network. We identify multiple communities of viral sharing within bats and rodents and highlight potential species traits that can help guide studies of novel pathogen emergence

Gamma-ray strength function and pygmy resonance in rare earth nuclei

The gamma-ray strength function for gamma energies in the 1-7 MeV region has been measured for 161,162-Dy and 171,172-Yb using the (3-He,alpha gamma) reaction. Various models are tested against the observed gamma-ray strength functions. The best description is based on the Kadmenskii, Markushev and Furman E1 model with constant temperature and the Lorentzian M1 model. A gamma-ray bump observed at E_gamma=3 MeV is interpreted as the so-called pygmy resonance, which has also been observed previously in (n,gamma) experiments. The parameters for this resonance have been determined and compared to the available systematics.Comment: 11 pages, including 4 figures and 2 table

The Non-linear Dynamics of Meaning-Processing in Social Systems

Social order cannot be considered as a stable phenomenon because it contains an order of reproduced expectations. When the expectations operate upon one another, they generate a non-linear dynamics that processes meaning. Specific meaning can be stabilized, for example, in social institutions, but all meaning arises from a horizon of possible meanings. Using Luhmann's (1984) social systems theory and Rosen's (1985) theory of anticipatory systems, I submit equations for modeling the processing of meaning in inter-human communication. First, a self-referential system can use a model of itself for the anticipation. Under the condition of functional differentiation, the social system can be expected to entertain a set of models; each model can also contain a model of the other models. Two anticipatory mechanisms are then possible: one transversal between the models, and a longitudinal one providing the modeled systems with meaning from the perspective of hindsight. A system containing two anticipatory mechanisms can become hyper-incursive. Without making decisions, however, a hyper-incursive system would be overloaded with uncertainty. Under this pressure, informed decisions tend to replace the "natural preferences" of agents and an order of cultural expectations can increasingly be shaped

Large-scale Bright Fronts in the Solar Corona: A Review of "EIT waves"

``EIT waves" are large-scale coronal bright fronts (CBFs) that were first observed in 195 \AA\ images obtained using the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) onboard the \emph{Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)}. Commonly called ``EIT waves", CBFs typically appear as diffuse fronts that propagate pseudo-radially across the solar disk at velocities of 100--700 km s$^{-1}$ with front widths of 50-100 Mm. As their speed is greater than the quiet coronal sound speed ($c_s\leq$200 km s$^{-1}$) and comparable to the local Alfv\'{e}n speed ($v_A\leq$1000 km s$^{-1}$), they were initially interpreted as fast-mode magnetoacoustic waves ($v_{f}=(c_s^2 + v_A^2)^{1/2}$). Their propagation is now known to be modified by regions where the magnetosonic sound speed varies, such as active regions and coronal holes, but there is also evidence for stationary CBFs at coronal hole boundaries. The latter has led to the suggestion that they may be a manifestation of a processes such as Joule heating or magnetic reconnection, rather than a wave-related phenomena. While the general morphological and kinematic properties of CBFs and their association with coronal mass ejections have now been well described, there are many questions regarding their excitation and propagation. In particular, the theoretical interpretation of these enigmatic events as magnetohydrodynamic waves or due to changes in magnetic topology remains the topic of much debate.Comment: 34 pages, 19 figure

Physics of Solar Prominences: I - Spectral Diagnostics and Non-LTE Modelling

This review paper outlines background information and covers recent advances made via the analysis of spectra and images of prominence plasma and the increased sophistication of non-LTE (ie when there is a departure from Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium) radiative transfer models. We first describe the spectral inversion techniques that have been used to infer the plasma parameters important for the general properties of the prominence plasma in both its cool core and the hotter prominence-corona transition region. We also review studies devoted to the observation of bulk motions of the prominence plasma and to the determination of prominence mass. However, a simple inversion of spectroscopic data usually fails when the lines become optically thick at certain wavelengths. Therefore, complex non-LTE models become necessary. We thus present the basics of non-LTE radiative transfer theory and the associated multi-level radiative transfer problems. The main results of one- and two-dimensional models of the prominences and their fine-structures are presented. We then discuss the energy balance in various prominence models. Finally, we outline the outstanding observational and theoretical questions, and the directions for future progress in our understanding of solar prominences.Comment: 96 pages, 37 figures, Space Science Reviews. Some figures may have a better resolution in the published version. New version reflects minor changes brought after proof editin

Association of early nutritional status With child development in the Asia Pacific region

Importance: Stunting was used as a proxy for underdevelopment in early childhood in previous studies, but the associations between child development and other growth and body composition parameters were rarely studied. Objective: To estimate the association between malnutrition and early child development (ECD) at an individual level. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based, cross-sectional study used data from the East Asia Pacific Early Child Development Scales, a population-representative survey of children aged 3 to 5 years old, conducted in 2012 to 2014 in communities in Cambodia, China, Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, and Vanuatu. Data analysis was performed from November 2019 to April 2021. Exposures: Stunting (height-for-age [HFA] z score less than −2), wasting (weight-for-height z score less than −2), overweight (weight-for-height z score greater than 2), body mass index (BMI)–for-age z score, and body fat proportion based on existing growth standard and formula. Main Outcomes and Measures: ECD directly assessed using the validated East Asia–Pacific ECD Scales. Results: A total of 7108 children (3547 girls; mean [SD], age 4.48 [0.84] years) were included in this study. The prevalence of stunting was 27.1% (range across countries, 1.2%-55.0%), that of wasting was 13.7% (range, 5.4%-35.9%), and that of overweight was 15.9% (range, 2.2%-53.7%). Adjusted for country variations, age, sex, urbanicity, family socioeconomic status, and body fat proportion, ECD was linearly associated with HFA (β, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.35-1.80) and BMI-for-age (β, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.45-0.82). After adjustment for BMI and height, better ECD was associated with low body fat proportion (β, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.45-1.42). The association of HFA was more pronounced in Southeast Asia and the Pacific region than in East Asia, and the association of fat proportion was specific to children living in urban environments. Conclusions and Relevance: HFA, BMI-for-age, and body fat proportion were independently associated with ECD, and these findings suggest that future studies should consider using these parameters to estimate the prevalence of child underdevelopment; nutritional trials should examine to what extent the associations are causal

Possibility for reverse zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to free-ranging wildlife: a case study of bats

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the substantial public health, economic, and societal consequences of virus spillover from a wildlife reservoir. Widespread human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) also presents a new set of challenges when considering viral spillover from people to naïve wildlife and other animal populations. The establishment of new wildlife reservoirs for SARS-CoV-2 would further complicate public health control measures and could lead to wildlife health and conservation impacts. Given the likely bat origin of SARS-CoV-2 and related beta-coronaviruses (β-CoVs), free-ranging bats are a key group of concern for spillover from humans back to wildlife. Here, we review the diversity and natural host range of β-CoVs in bats and examine the risk of humans inadvertently infecting free-ranging bats with SARS-CoV-2. Our review of the global distribution and host range of β-CoV evolutionary lineages suggests that 40+ species of temperate-zone North American bats could be immunologically naïve and susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2. We highlight an urgent need to proactively connect the wellbeing of human and wildlife health during the current pandemic and to implement new tools to continue wildlife research while avoiding potentially severe health and conservation impacts of SARS-CoV-2 "spilling back" into free-ranging bat populations

Possibility for reverse zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to free-ranging wildlife: a case study of bats

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the substantial public health, economic, and societal consequences of virus spillover from a wildlife reservoir. Widespread human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) also presents a new set of challenges when considering viral spillover from people to naïve wildlife and other animal populations. The establishment of new wildlife reservoirs for SARS-CoV-2 would further complicate public health control measures and could lead to wildlife health and conservation impacts. Given the likely bat origin of SARS-CoV-2 and related beta-coronaviruses (β-CoVs), free-ranging bats are a key group of concern for spillover from humans back to wildlife. Here, we review the diversity and natural host range of β-CoVs in bats and examine the risk of humans inadvertently infecting free-ranging bats with SARS-CoV-2. Our review of the global distribution and host range of β-CoV evolutionary lineages suggests that 40+ species of temperate-zone North American bats could be immunologically naïve and susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2. We highlight an urgent need to proactively connect the wellbeing of human and wildlife health during the current pandemic and to implement new tools to continue wildlife research while avoiding potentially severe health and conservation impacts of SARS-CoV-2 "spilling back" into free-ranging bat populations