A synthesis of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion

This synthesis discusses the emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production. While much is known about these emissions, there is still much that is unknown about the details surrounding these emissions. This synthesis explores our knowledge of these emissions in terms of why there is concern about them; how they are calculated; the major global efforts on inventorying them; their global, regional, and national totals at different spatial and temporal scales; how they are distributed on global grids (i.e., maps); how they are transported in models; and the uncertainties associated with these different aspects of the emissions. The magnitude of emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels has been almost continuously increasing with time since fossil fuels were first used by humans. Despite events in some nations specifically designed to reduce emissions, or which have had emissions reduction as a byproduct of other events, global total emissions continue their general increase with time. Global total fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions are known to within 10 % uncertainty (95 % confidence interval). Uncertainty on individual national total fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions range from a few percent to more than 50 %. This manuscript concludes that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion continue to increase with time and that while much is known about the overall characteristics of these emissions, much is still to be learned about the detailed characteristics of these emissions

Global carbon budget 2013

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and assuming an ELUC of 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (based on the 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.7 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1% (1.1–3.1%) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 ± 55 GtC for 1870–2013, about 70% from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30% from ELUC (145 ± 50 GtC)

Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations -- Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii 1958--1986

Since 1958, CO{sub 2} concentrations at Mauna Loa Observatory have been obtained using a nondispersive, dual detector, infrared gas analyzer. Air samples are obtained from air intakes at the top of four 7m towers and one 27m tower. Those involved in the monitoring project have attempted to improving sampling techniques, reduce possible contamination sources, and adjust data to represent uncontaminated, true conditions throughout the twenty-eight year sampling period. The gas analyzer is calibrated by standardized CO{sub 2}-in-nitrogen reference gases twice daily. Flask samples are taken twice a month for comparison to the data recorded using the infrared gas analyzer. Data are scrutinized daily for possible contamination and archived on magnetic tape for further scrutiny and adjustment. Daily, monthly, and annual averages are computed for the Mauna Loa data after deletion of contaminated samples and readjustment of the data. These averages have shown a steady rise in annual average concentration from 316 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in 1959 to 346 ppmv in 1986

Estimates of global, regional, and national annual CO{sub 2} emissions from fossil-fuel burning, hydraulic cement production, and gas flaring: 1950--1992

This document describes the compilation, content, and format of the most comprehensive C0{sub 2}-emissions database currently available. The database includes global, regional, and national annual estimates of C0{sub 2} emissions resulting from fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing, and gas flaring in oil fields for 1950--92 as well as the energy production, consumption, and trade data used for these estimates. The methods of Marland and Rotty (1983) are used to calculate these emission estimates. For the first time, the methods and data used to calculate CO, emissions from gas flaring are presented. This C0{sub 2}-emissions database is useful for carbon-cycle research, provides estimates of the rate at which fossil-fuel combustion has released C0{sub 2} to the atmosphere, and offers baseline estimates for those countries compiling 1990 C0{sub 2}-emissions inventories

CO{sub 2} emission calculations and trends

Evidence that the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration has risen during the past several decades is irrefutable. Most of the observed increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} is believed to result from CO{sub 2} releases from fossil-fuel burning. The United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), signed in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992, reflects global concern over the increasing CO{sub 2} concentration and its potential impact on climate. One of the convention`s stated objectives was the ``stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. `` Specifically, the FCCC asked all 154 signing countries to conduct an inventory of their current greenhouse gas emissions, and it set nonbinding targets for some countries to control emissions by stabilizing them at 1990 levels by the year 2000. Given the importance of CO{sub 2} as a greenhouse gas, the relationship between CO{sub 2} emissions and increases in atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels, and the potential impacts of a greenhouse gas-induced climate change; it is important that comprehensive CO{sub 2} emissions records be compiled, maintained, updated, and documented

Carbon 14 measurements in surface water CO{sub 2} from the Atlantic, India, and Pacific Oceans, 1965--1994

In the 1960s, thermonuclear bomb tests released significant pulses of radioactive carbon-14 ({sup 14}C) into the atmosphere. These major perturbations allowed scientists to study the dynamics of the global carbon cycle by calculating rates of isotope exchange between the atmosphere and ocean waters. A total of 950 ocean surface water observations were made from 1965 through 1994. The measurements were taken at 30 stations in the Atlantic Ocean, 14 stations in the Indian Ocean, and 38 stations in the Pacific Ocean. Thirty-two of the 950 samples were taken in the Atlantic Ocean during the R/V Andenes research cruise. {sup 14}C was measured in 871 of the 950 samples, and those measurements have been corrected ({Delta}{sup 14}C) for isotopic fractionation and radioactive decay. The {Delta}{sup 14}C values range between {minus}113.3 and 280.9 per mille and have a mean value of 101.3 per mille. The highest yearly mean (146.5 per mille) was calculated for 1969, the lowest yearly mean value was calculated for 1990 (67.9 per mille) illustrating a decrease over time. This decrease was to be expected as a result of the ban on atmospheric thermonuclear tests and the slow mixing of the ocean surface waters with the deeper layers