Measuring the spin of the primary black hole in OJ287

The compact binary system in OJ287 is modelled to contain a spinning primary black hole with an accretion disk and a non-spinning secondary black hole. Using Post Newtonian (PN) accurate equations that include 2.5PN accurate non-spinning contributions, the leading order general relativistic and classical spin-orbit terms, the orbit of the binary black hole in OJ287 is calculated and as expected it depends on the spin of the primary black hole. Using the orbital solution, the specific times when the orbit of the secondary crosses the accretion disk of the primary are evaluated such that the record of observed outbursts from 1913 up to 2007 is reproduced. The timings of the outbursts are quite sensitive to the spin value. In order to reproduce all the known outbursts, including a newly discovered one in 1957, the Kerr parameter of the primary has to be $0.28 \pm 0.08$. The quadrupole-moment contributions to the equations of motion allow us to constrain the `no-hair' parameter to be $1.0\:\pm\:0.3$ where 0.3 is the one sigma error. This supports the `black hole no-hair theorem' within the achievable precision. It should be possible to test the present estimate in 2015 when the next outburst is due. The timing of the 2015 outburst is a strong function of the spin: if the spin is 0.36 of the maximal value allowed in general relativity, the outburst begins in early November 2015, while the same event starts in the end of January 2016 if the spin is 0.2Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure

Measuring Black Hole Spin in OJ287

We model the binary black hole system OJ287 as a spinning primary and a non-spinning secondary. It is assumed that the primary has an accretion disk which is impacted by the secondary at specific times. These times are identified as major outbursts in the light curve of OJ287. This identification allows an exact solution of the orbit, with very tight error limits. Nine outbursts from both the historical photographic records as well as from recent photometric measurements have been used as fixed points of the solution: 1913, 1947, 1957, 1973, 1983, 1984, 1995, 2005 and 2007 outbursts. This allows the determination of eight parameters of the orbit. Most interesting of these are the primary mass of $1.84\cdot 10^{10} M_\odot$, the secondary mass $1.46\cdot 10^{8} M_\odot$, major axis precession rate $39^\circ.1$ per period, and the eccentricity of the orbit 0.70. The dimensionless spin parameter is $0.28\:\pm\:0.01$ (1 sigma). The last parameter will be more tightly constrained in 2015 when the next outburst is due. The outburst should begin on 15 December 2015 if the spin value is in the middle of this range, on 3 January 2016 if the spin is 0.25, and on 26 November 2015 if the spin is 0.31. We have also tested the possibility that the quadrupole term in the Post Newtonian equations of motion does not exactly follow Einstein's theory: a parameter $q$ is introduced as one of the 8 parameters. Its value is within 30% (1 sigma) of the Einstein's value $q = 1$. This supports the $no-hair theorem$ of black holes within the achievable precision. We have also measured the loss of orbital energy due to gravitational waves. The loss rate is found to agree with Einstein's value with the accuracy of 2% (1 sigma).Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, IAU26

Eye fluke-induced cataracts in natural fish populations: is there potential for host manipulation?

Manipulation of host phenotype (e.g. behaviour, appearance) is suggested to be a common strategy to enhance transmission in trophically transmitted parasites. However, in many systems, evidence of manipulation comes exclusively from laboratory studies and its occurrence in natural host populations is poorly understood. Here, we examined the potential for host manipulation by Diplostomum eye flukes indirectly by quantifying the physiological effects of parasites on fish. Earlier laboratory studies have shown that Diplostomum infection predisposes fish to predation by birds (definitive hosts of the parasites) by reducing fish vision through cataract formation. However, occurrence of cataracts and the subsequent potential for host manipulation in natural fish populations has remained poorly explored. We studied the occurrence of eye fluke-induced cataracts from 7 common fish species (Gymnocephalus cernuus, Rutilus rutilus, Leuciscus leuciscus, Alburnus alburnus, Osmerus eperlanus, Coregonus lavaretus and Gasterosteus aculeatus) from the Bothnian Bay in the Baltic Sea. We found that the parasite-induced cataracts were common in fish and they also reached high levels which are likely to predispose fish to predation. However, we observed such cataracts only in species with the highest parasite abundances, which suggests that only certain hosts may be strongly affected by the infectio

Seasonal changes in host phenotype manipulation by an acanthocephalan: time to be transmitted?

Many complex life cycle parasites exhibit seasonal transmission between hosts. Expression of parasite traits related to transmission, such as the manipulation of host phenotype, may peak in seasons when transmission is optimal. The acanthocephalan Acanthocephalus lucii is primarily transmitted to its fish definitive host in spring. We assessed whether the parasitic alteration of 2 traits (hiding behaviour and coloration) in the isopod intermediate host was more pronounced at this time of year. Refuge use by infected isopods was lower, relative to uninfected isopods, in spring than in summer or fall. Infected isopods had darker abdomens than uninfected isopods, but this difference did not vary between seasons. The level of host alteration was unaffected by exposing isopods to different light and temperature regimes. In a group of infected isopods kept at 4°C, refuge use decreased from November to May, indicating that reduced hiding in spring develops during winter. Keeping isopods at 16°C instead of 4°C resulted in higher mortality but not accelerated changes in host behaviour. Our results suggest that changes in host and/or parasite age, not environmental conditions, underlie the seasonal alteration of host behaviour, but further work is necessary to determine if this is an adaptive parasite strategy to be transmitted in a particular seaso

Acanthocephalan size and sex affect the modification of intermediate host colouration

For trophically transmitted parasites, transitional larval size is often related to fitness. Larger parasites may have higher establishment success and/or adult fecundity, but prolonged growth in the intermediate host increases the risk of failed transmission via natural host mortality. We investigated the relationship between the larval size of an acanthocephalan (Acanthocephalus lucii) and a trait presumably related to transmission, i.e. altered colouration in the isopod intermediate host. In natural collections, big isopods harboured larger worms and had more modified (darker) abdominal colouration than small hosts. Small isopods infected with a male parasite tended to have darker abdominal pigmentation than those infected with a female, but this difference was absent in larger hosts. Female size increases rapidly with host size, so females may have more to gain than males by remaining in and growing mutually with small hosts. In experimental infections, a large total parasite volume was associated with darker host respiratory operculae, especially when it was distributed among fewer worms. Our results suggest that host pigment alteration increases with parasite size, albeit differently for male and female worms. This may be an adaptive strategy if, as parasites grow, the potential for additional growth decreases and the likelihood of host mortality increase

Is There an Ideological Asymmetry in the Incumbency Effect? : Evidence From U.S. Congressional Elections

The electoral advantage that incumbent legislators enjoy over challengers in the U.S. Congress has been investigated extensively in political science. Very few studies, however, have considered the role of individual differences when it comes to incumbency preferences among voters. Based on theory and research in political psychology, we hypothesized that political conservatives would exhibit stronger preferences than liberals for incumbents over challengers from the same party. Extensive analyses based on more than 150,000 voters from seven election cycles in the United States from 2006 to 2018 support this hypothesis. A significant effect of conservatism on incumbency preferences was observed in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, and it was not attributable to Republican Party identification. This ideological asymmetry is consistent with system justification theory and prior research linking conservatism to risk aversion and status quo bias. Practical implications and directions for future research are discussed.Peer reviewe

Furcocercous cercariae (Trematoda) from freshwater snails in Central Finland

A total of eight species of furcocercous cercariae of four families (Strigeidae, Diplostomidae, Schistosomatidae and Sanguinicolidae), were found in 2005 in Lake Konnevesi in Central Finland in four snail species (Valvata macrostoma, Lymnaea stagnalis, Bathyomphalus contortus and Planorbarius corneus). Australapatemon burti (Miller, 1923), Australapatemon sp., Cotylurus brevis Dubois et Rausch, 1950, Cercaria spinulosa Ginetsinskaya, 1959 and Sanguinicola sp. are new species records for Finland. Ichthyocotylurus variegatus (Creplin, 1825) and Bilharziella polonica (Kowalewski, 1895) were first recorded as cercariae in Finland. The most common cercariae were A. burti (prevalence 13.3%) and Diplostomum pseudospathaceum Niewiadomska, 1984 (10.0%). Our study represents the first host record of Valvata macrostoma for larval stages of Australapatemon sp. and Sanguinicola sp