Изменение площади и объёма ледников Горного Алтая (Россия) с середины ХХ в. по данным космических съёмок

The paper examines changes in the area and volume of the Katun river basin glaciers, North and South Chu glaciers of the Altai Mountains since the beginning of the USSR glaciers inventarization to the present. For this purpose, we used USSR Glaciers Inventory data, space imagery – CORONA-1968, ALOS PRISM-2008, Landsat and ASTER 2000–2012. In total, glaciers have lost 172.4 km2 (27.4%) of its area.Рассматривается изменение площади и объёма ледников Горного Алтая с начала каталогизации ледников СССР по настоящее время. Для оценки изменений площади ледников использованы данные Каталога ледников СССР и космические снимки со спутников CORONA, ALOS PRISM, Landsat и ASTER.К 2008 г. ледники Катунского, Северо- и Южно-Чуйского хребтов потеряли 172,4 км2 площади, или 27,7%. Суммарное сокращение объёма ледников составило 8,9 км3. Объёмы ледников вычислены с помощью корреляционных зависимостей, полученных по данным полевого радиолокационного зондирования алтайских ледников. Сравнение космических снимков 2004 и 2012 гг. с данными середины прошлого века позволило сделать вывод об увеличении скорости сокращения площади ледников в последнее десятилетие в 1,5–2 раза

Stability of Terrestrial Planets in the Habitable Zone of Gl 777 A, HD 72659, Gl 614, 47 Uma and HD 4208

We have undertaken a thorough dynamical investigation of five extrasolar planetary systems using extensive numerical experiments. The systems Gl 777 A, HD 72659, Gl 614, 47 Uma and HD 4208 were examined concerning the question of whether they could host terrestrial like planets in their habitable zones (=HZ). First we investigated the mean motion resonances between fictitious terrestrial planets and the existing gas giants in these five extrasolar systems. Then a fine grid of initial conditions for a potential terrestrial planet within the HZ was chosen for each system, from which the stability of orbits was then assessed by direct integrations over a time interval of 1 million years. The computations were carried out using a Lie-series integration method with an adaptive step size control. This integration method achieves machine precision accuracy in a highly efficient and robust way, requiring no special adjustments when the orbits have large eccentricities. The stability of orbits was examined with a determination of the Renyi entropy, estimated from recurrence plots, and with a more straight forward method based on the maximum eccentricity achieved by the planet over the 1 million year integration. Additionally, the eccentricity is an indication of the habitability of a terrestrial planet in the HZ; any value of e>0.2 produces a significant temperature difference on a planet's surface between apoapse and periapse. The results for possible stable orbits for terrestrial planets in habitable zones for the five systems are summarized as follows: for Gl 777 A nearly the entire HZ is stable, for 47 Uma, HD 72659 and HD 4208 terrestrial planets can survive for a sufficiently long time, while for Gl 614 our results exclude terrestrial planets moving in stable orbits within the HZ.Comment: 14 pages, 18 figures submitted to A&

Реакция ледников Центрального Кавказа в 2001–2010 гг. на изменения температуры и количества осадков

This paper examines changes in surface area and terminus retreat of glaciers in the Greater Caucasus Mountains between 2001 and 2010 using ASTER imagery. The use of consistent high-resolution imagery such as ASTER significantly reduces uncertainties in measurements of glacier shrinkage and retreat and enables assessments at decadal intervals which are important for both scientists and regional decision-makers. Two ASTER images acquired on 15 September 2001 and 29 September 2010 covering central sector of the Greater Caucasus Ridge and the Elbrus glaciated massif were used for glacier mapping. Outlines of 179 glaciers were mapped of which 108 glaciers are located on the northern macroslope of the Greater Caucasus and on Mt Elbrus in the Baksan River catchment (Russia) and 71 are located on the southern macroslope in the Inguri River catchment (Georgia). In total, glaciers lost 5% of their area. Glacier wastage was higher in the Inguri catchment at 5.6%; in the Baksan catchment, glaciers lost 4.3% of their area. Termini positions of 28 valley glaciers were measured on ASTER and aerial photographs to compare rates of glacier retreat in 2001–2010 and 1987–2001.The rate of this recession increased, this fact confirmed by field studies in Baksan basin. Glacier mass balance observations at Garabashi glacier  indicate strong reduction in cumulative mass balance since 1998 providing further evidence on glacier wastage. The observed shrinkage of Caucasus glaciers is mainly connected with increasing in summer temperatures.Increase in precipitation has not compensated for an increase in temperature between 1987–2001 and 2001–2010 periods. Оценено изменение размеров ледников Центрального Кавказа с 2001 по 2010 г. Для количественной оценки сокращения площади ледников Центрального Кавказа в бассейнах рек Баксан и Ингури за этот период использованы материалы повторной космической съёмки. В среднем эта величина составила 5%. По сравнению с предыдущим периодом наблюдений (1987–2001 гг.) средняя скорость отступания языков ледников увеличилась. Причины сокращения площади ледников анализировались на основе данных непрерывного многолетнего ряда балансовых наблюдений на леднике Гарабаши (Эльбрус), а также материалов наблюдений за изменениями температуры и количества осадков на метеостанции Терскол. Сокращение размеров оледенения хорошо коррелирует с ростом летних температур в высокогорье Кавказа, несмотря на увеличение количества зимних осадков

Открытие и исследования ледников севера континентальной России

The history of studies of ten mountain glacier systems in Russian Subarctic is analyzed in the paper (Fig. 1). The intensity of these systems reduction and the vertical extent of glaciers during last 150 and 50 years are compared with the climate warming in this part of Russia, the map of accumulation–ablation on glaciers of this region is given (Fig. 3). Very quick reaction of the glacier surface to climatic changes is shown. The precision of glaciers’ size during 1960–1980 and 2000 are estimated and suggestion for future monitoring of glaciers size is made.Изложена история открытия в ХХ в. 10 ледниковых систем континентальной России, расположенных севернее 60-й параллели. Обсуждаются вопросы современной изученности аккумуляции–абляции, размеров и динамики ледников за последние 150 лет. Построена карта аккумуляции–абляции на ледниках северо-востока России, подтверждающая их принадлежность к Тихоокеанской гляциологической провинции. Охарактеризованы возможности изучения современного состояния ледников на основе использования результатов космической съёмки

Prevalence and outcomes of pregnancies in women living with HIV over a 20-year period: The EuroSIDA study, 1996 to 2015

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate time trends in pregnancies and pregnancy outcomes among women living with HIV in Europe. DESIGN: European multicentre prospective cohort study. METHODS: EuroSIDA has collected annual cross-sectional audits of pregnancies between 1996 and 2015. Pregnancy data were extracted and described. Odds of pregnancy were modelled, adjusting for potential confounders using logistic regression with generalised estimating equations. RESULTS: Of 5535 women aged 16 to <50 years, 4217 (76.2%) had pregnancy information available, and 912 (21.6%) reported 1315 pregnancies. The proportions with at least one pregnancy were 28.1% (321/1143) in East, 24.5% (146/596) in North, 19.8% (140/706) in West/Central, 19.3% (110/569) in Central East and 16.2% (195/1203) in South Europe. Overall 319 pregnancies (24.3%) occurred in 1996-2002, 576 (43.8%) in 2003-2009 and 420 (31.9%) in 2010-2015. After adjustment, the odds of pregnancy were lower in 1996-2002, in South, Central East and East compared to West/Central Europe, in older women, those with low CD4 counts or with prior AIDS, and higher in those with a previous pregnancy or who were HCV positive.Outcomes were reported for 999 pregnancies in 1996-2014, with 690 live births (69.1%), seven stillbirths (0.7%), 103 spontaneous (10.3%) and 199 medical abortions (19.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Around 20% of women in EuroSIDA reported a pregnancy, with most pregnancies after 2002, when more effective antiretroviral therapy became available. Substantial differences were seen between European regions. Further surveillance of pregnancies and outcomes among women living with HIV is warranted to ensure equal access to care

Изменения горных ледников в Северном и Южном полушариях за последние 160 лет

Changes of the glacier areas were analyzed. Rates of the area reduction of glaciers and glacier systems were compared over the course of the past 160 years as well as during shorter time intervals for the same period. On average for the whole period, the glacier areas decreased by a few tenths of a percent from the original in a year. Note, that this value was formed by rates for periods of the glacier retreating and advancing which were comparable by their intensities with rates from tenths of a percent to several percents of area in a year. In the first and the last thirds of the 20th century, when a rise of the air temperature decelerated, a number of advancing glaciers increased in both hemispheres. During these periods the same glaciers advanced (up to 25% of the total quantity of the investigated glaciers in the Alps). The second third of the 20th and the begin‑ ning of the 21st century were characterized by intensification of the temperature rise, and as the consequence of that, the number of advancing glaciers decreased, and rates of the area reductions increased over the whole globe. This dynamics was in a good agreement with the sea ice fluctuations in both, the Arctic and Antarctic regions, where the ice coverage increased in the 1960–1970 and in the second tenth of XXI century. So, decel‑ eration of the climate warming in that time was followed by increasing of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice coverage and by deceleration of the area reduction of the mountain glacierization in some regions.Исследованы скорости перемещения фронта и изменения площади ряда ледников за последние 160 лет. В этот период на общем фоне сокращения горного оледенения число наступающих ледников возрастало при замедлении роста температур воздуха в первой и последней третях ХХ в. Во второй трети ХХ и начале XXI вв. отступание ледников усиливалось вместе с заметным ростом температуры воздуха. Такие изменения согласуются с колебаниями площади морских льдов, которая в 1960–70-х годах возрастала, а в середине ХХ и начале XXI вв. уменьшалась

УСЛОВИЯ ПЛАВЛЕНИЯ ГРАНИТОИДНЫХ КСЕНОЛИТОВ В КОНТАКТЕ СО ЩЕЛОЧНО‐БАЗИТОВОЙ МАГМОЙ (ГУСИНООЗЕРСКАЯ ДАЙКА, ЗАПАДНОЕ ЗАБАЙКАЛЬЕ): К ПРОБЛЕМЕ ПРОИСХОЖДЕНИЯ УЛЬТРАКАЛИЕВЫХ КИСЛЫХ РАСПЛАВОВ

The alkaline mafic (lamprophyric) Gusinoozerskaya dyke in West Transbaikalia is composed of partially melted granite xenoliths. Among the xenoliths, two melted substrates are observed: (1) plagioclase and quartz, and (2) alkaline feldspar and quartz. Few millimeters thick microfelsite and microgranophiric rims are the products of melting around the granite xenoliths. Ultra‐acid glass is observed in the inner parts of the xenoliths at the boundary of quartz and feldspars. A distinctive feature of the fresh melts (regardless of the composition of the protolithic sub‐ strate) is an increased content of potassium with K2O/Na2O≥2. Having compared the compositions of the products of contact melting with the experimental data, we conclude that melting took place in the presence of alkaline‐chloride and/or alkaline‐carbonic fluid released from the crystallizing host alkaline‐basic magma. The probable geotectonic conditions for the occurrence of ultrapotassic acid magmas are estimated.Щелочно‐мафическая (лампрофировая) Гусиноозерская дайка (Западное Забайкалье) содержит гранитные ксенолиты, испытавшие частичное плавление. Среди ксенолитов выявлено два субстрата, претерпевших плавление: 1) плагиоклаз и кварц и 2) щелочной полевой шпат и кварц. Продукты плавления представляют собой микрофельзитовые и микрогранофировые оторочки вокруг гранитных ксенолитов мощностью в первые миллиметры. Во внутренних частях ксенолитов на границе кварца и полевых шпатов наблюдается ультракислое стекло. Отличительной особенностью новообразованных расплавов, независимо от состава протолитового субстрата, является их повышенная калиевость с отношением K2O/Na2O≥2. На основе сопоставления составов производных контактового плавления с экспериментальными данными показано, что плавление происходило в присутствии щелочно‐хлоридного и/или щелочно‐углекислого флюида, выделявшегося из кристаллизующейся вмещающей щелочно‐основной магмы. Оценены вероятные геотектонические условия возникновения ультракалиевых кислых магм

Incidence of cancer and overall risk of mortality in individuals treated with raltegravir-based and non-raltegravir-based combination antiretroviral therapy regimens

Objectives: There are currently few data on the long-term risk of cancer and death in individuals taking raltegravir (RAL). The aim of this analysis was to evaluate whether there is evidence for an association. Methods: The EuroSIDA cohort was divided into three groups: those starting RAL-based combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) on or after 21 December 2007 (RAL); a historical cohort (HIST) of individuals adding a new antiretroviral (ARV) drug (not RAL) to their cART between 1 January 2005 and 20 December 2007, and a concurrent cohort (CONC) of individuals adding a new ARV drug (not RAL) to their cART on or after 21 December 2007. Baseline characteristics were compared using logistic regression. The incidences of newly diagnosed malignancies and death were compared using Poisson regression. Results: The RAL cohort included 1470 individuals [with 4058 person-years of follow-up (PYFU)] compared with 3787 (4472 PYFU) and 4467 (10 691 PYFU) in the HIST and CONC cohorts, respectively. The prevalence of non-AIDS-related malignancies prior to baseline tended to be higher in the RAL cohort vs. the HIST cohort [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.31; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95–1.80] and vs. the CONC cohort (aOR 1.89; 95% CI 1.37–2.61). In intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis (events: RAL, 50; HIST, 45; CONC, 127), the incidence of all new malignancies was 1.11 (95% CI 0.84–1.46) per 100 PYFU in the RAL cohort vs. 1.20 (95% CI 0.90–1.61) and 0.83 (95% CI 0.70–0.99) in the HIST and CONC cohorts, respectively. After adjustment, there was no evidence for a difference in the risk of malignancies [adjusted rate ratio (RR) 0.73; 95% CI 0.47–1.14 for RALvs. HIST; RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.65–1.39 for RALvs. CONC] or mortality (adjusted RR 0.87; 95% CI 0.53–1.43 for RALvs. HIST; RR 1.14; 95% CI 0.76–1.72 for RALvs. CONC). Conclusions: We found no evidence for an oncogenic risk or poorer survival associated with using RAL compared with control groups.Peer reviewe