Shocks in coupled socio-ecological systems: what are they and how can we model them?

Coupled socio-ecological systems (SES) are complex systems characterized by self-organization, non-linearities, interactions among heterogeneous elements within each subsystem, and feedbacks across scales and among subsystems. When such a system experiences a shock or a crisis, the consequences are difficult to predict. In this paper we first define what a shock or a crisis means for SES. Depending on where the system boundary is drawn, shocks can be seen as exogenous or endogenous. For example, human intervention in environmental systems could be seen as exogenous, but endogenous in a socio-environmental system. This difference in the origin and nature of shocks has certain consequences for coupled SES and for policies to ameliorate negative consequences of shocks. Having defined shocks, the paper then focuses on modelling challenges when studying shocks in coupled SES. If we are to explore, study and predict the responses of coupled SES to shocks, the models used need to be able to accommodate (exogenous) or produce (endogenous) a shock event. Various modelling choices need to be made. Specifically, the ‘sudden’ aspect of a shock suggests the time period over which an event claimed to be a shock occurred might be ‘quick’. What does that mean for a discrete event model? Turning to magnitude, what degree of change (in a variable or set of variables) is required for the event to be considered a shock? The ‘surprising’ nature of a shock means that none of the agents in the model should expect the shock to happen, but may need rules enabling them to generate behaviour in exceptional circumstances. This requires a certain design of the agents’ decision-making algorithms, their perception of a shock, memory of past events and formation of expectations, and the information available to them during the time the shock occurred

Effect of Fe content on atomic and electronic structure of complex oxides Sr Ti,Fe O3 delta

Two series of SrTi1 xFexO3 amp; 948; STFO powders with different Fe content produced by two different methods, solid state reaction or modified Pechini synthesis, have been investigated by soft X ray absorption spectroscopy. The O1s K , Fe2p L2,3 and Ti2p L2,3 absorption spectra of STFO powders were analyzed. Partial substitution of Ti by Fe atoms in SrTiO3 were found to cause asymmetric distortion of TiO6 octahedrons which may violate the cubic symmetry of STFO. It was established that the distortion of TiO6 octahedrons increases with increasing Fe content. The joint analysis of the STFO spectra along with the reference compounds points to the presence mainly of Fe3 states in octahedral environment at small concentration of Fe atoms along with essentially smaller content of Fe4 states in octahedral environment where the latter contribution increases with increasing Fe content. Also a presence of Fe3 states in tetrahedral environment with Fe content higher than 50 is traced. A certain amount of Fe2 ions in an octahedral environment was also found in the STFO compound prepared by spray pyrolysis with Fe content higher than 75 . The O1s K absorption spectra point to increase in oxygen vacancy concentration with increasing Fe content. The lowest degree of structure distortions was traced in STFO35. Hence, the STFO35 compound seems to be mostly appropriate for technical application

Assessing the macroeconomic impacts of individual behavioral changes on carbon emissions

© 2019, The Author(s). In the last decade, instigated by the Paris agreement and United Nations Climate Change Conferences (COP22 and COP23), the efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels are expanding. The required reductions in greenhouse gas emissions imply a massive decarbonization worldwide with much involvement of regions, cities, businesses, and individuals in addition to the commitments at the national levels. Improving end-use efficiency is emphasized in previous IPCC reports (IPCC 2014). Serving as the primary ‘agents of change’ in the transformative process towards green economies, households have a key role in global emission reduction. Individual actions, especially when amplified through social dynamics, shape green energy demand and affect investments in new energy technologies that collectively can curb regional and national emissions. However, most energy-economics models—usually based on equilibrium and optimization assumptions—have a very limited representation of household heterogeneity and treat households as purely rational economic actors. This paper illustrates how computational social science models can complement traditional models by addressing this limitation. We demonstrate the usefulness of behaviorally rich agent-based computational models by simulating various behavioral and climate scenarios for residential electricity demand and compare them with the business as usual (SSP2) scenario. Our results show that residential energy demand is strongly linked to personal and social norms. Empirical evidence from surveys reveals that social norms have an essential role in shaping personal norms. When assessing the cumulative impacts of these behavioral processes, we quantify individual and combined effects of social dynamics and of carbon pricing on individual energy efficiency and on the aggregated regional energy demand and emissions. The intensity of social interactions and learning plays an equally important role for the uptake of green technologies as economic considerations, and therefore in addition to carbon-price policies (top-down approach), implementing policies on education, social and cultural practices can significantly reduce residential carbon emissions

Physical constraints of cultural evolution of dialects in killer whales

Data collection was supported by a variety of organizations, including the Russian Fund for the Fundamental Research (Grant No. 15-04-05540), the Rufford Small Grants Fund, Whale and Dolphin Conservation, the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Grant No. SFRH/BD/30303/2006), Russell Trust Award of the University of St. Andrews, the Office of Naval Research, the Icelandic Research Fund (i. Rannsóknasjóður), the National Geographic Society Science and Exploration Europe (Grant No. GEFNE65-12), Vancouver Aquarium Marine Science Centre, the Canadian Ministry of Fisheries and Oceans, and the North Gulf Oceanic Society.Odontocete sounds are produced by two pairs of phonic lips situated in soft nares below the blowhole; the right pair is larger and is more likely to produce clicks, while the left pair is more likely to produce whistles. This has important implications for the cultural evolution of delphinid sounds: the greater the physical constraints, the greater the probability of random convergence. In this paper the authors examine the call structure of eight killer whale populations to identify structural constraints and to determine if they are consistent among all populations. Constraints were especially pronounced in two-voiced calls. In the calls of all eight populations, the lower component of two-voiced (biphonic) calls was typically centered below 4 kHz, while the upper component was typically above that value. The lower component of two-voiced calls had a narrower frequency range than single-voiced calls in all populations. This may be because some single-voiced calls are homologous to the lower component, while others are homologous to the higher component of two-voiced calls. Physical constraints on the call structure reduce the possible variation and increase the probability of random convergence, producing similar calls in different populations.PostprintPeer reviewe

Eight grand challenges in socio-environmental systems modeling

Modeling is essential to characterize and explore complex societal and environmental issues in systematic and collaborative ways. Socio-environmental systems (SES) modeling integrates knowledge and perspectives into conceptual and computational tools that explicitly recognize how human decisions affect the environment. Depending on the modeling purpose, many SES modelers also realize that involvement of stakeholders and experts is fundamental to support social learning and decision-making processes for achieving improved environmental and social outcomes. The contribution of this paper lies in identifying and formulating grand challenges that need to be overcome to accelerate the development and adaptation of SES modeling. Eight challenges are delineated: bridging epistemologies across disciplines; multi-dimensional uncertainty assessment and management; scales and scaling issues; combining qualitative and quantitative methods and data; furthering the adoption and impacts of SES modeling on policy; capturing structural changes; representing human dimensions in SES; and leveraging new data types and sources. These challenges limit our ability to effectively use SES modeling to provide the knowledge and information essential for supporting decision making. Whereas some of these challenges are not unique to SES modeling and may be pervasive in other scientific fields, they still act as barriers as well as research opportunities for the SES modeling community. For each challenge, we outline basic steps that can be taken to surmount the underpinning barriers. Thus, the paper identifies priority research areas in SES modeling, chiefly related to progressing modeling products, processes and practices

Возрастные аспекты эпидемиологии бронхиальной астмы у детей Новосибирска

An epidemiological survey on the ISAAC protocol involved 7,168 schoolchildren, 3,584 aged 13— 14 and 3,584 aged 7—8. Medical histories reported wheeze and rale in 25.6% of cases, and 10.4% in the 12 months preceding the survey. 2% had wheezes more than 4 times a year. The junior group revealed a spectacularly higher occurrence of nocturnal wheezes. Exercise-induced wheezes were much more frequent in the 13— 14 age group. Bronchial asthma had been diagnosed prior to the survey in 1.6% and 3.3% of cases in the 7—8 and 13— 14 age groups, respectively, to reveal BA morbidity drastically understated by the health service, especially with junior children.По данным эпидемиологического обследования по программе “ISAAC” 7168 детей (3584 учащихся в возрасте 13— 14 лет и 3584 школьников в возрасте 7—8 лет) распространенность затрудненного хрипящего дыхания, хрипов в грудной клетке составляет в анамнезе 25,6%, в течение 12 месяцев, предшествующих обследованию, — 10,4%. Частые рецидивы (более 4 раз в год) отмечены у 2% обследованных. У младших школьников ночные симптомы встречались достоверно чаще. Бронхоспазм физической нагрузки с большей частотой зафиксирован у восьмиклассников. До обследования диагноз бронхиальной астмы стоял у 1,6% первоклассников, 3,3% — восьмиклассников, что свидетельствуете гиподиагностике бронхиальной астмы, особенно у младших школьников

Дифференцированный подход к лечению лактазной недостаточности и аллергии на белок коровьего молока у детей раннего возраста

One of the most common pathologies in infants is a lactase deficiency and allergy to cow's milk protein. Treatment of lactase deficiency and allergies to cow's milk protein in young children requires a differentiated approach. The best food for the child's first months of life is mother's milk provides adequate development of the child's body. The use of lactase preparations, such as LAKTAZAR® with lactase deficiency pathogenetically justified and allows a short time to eliminate its main clinical manifestations, while retaining the possibility of breastfeeding.Одной из распространенных патологий у детей первого года жизни является лактазная недостаточность и аллергия на белок коровьего молока. Лечение лактазной недостаточности и аллергии на белок коровьего молока у детей раннего возраста требует дифференцированного подхода. Оптимальным продуктом питания для ребенка первых месяцев жизни является материнское молоко, обеспечивающее адекватное развитие детского организма. Применение препаратов лактазы, например ЛАКТАЗАРА® при лактазной недостаточности патогенетически обосновано и позволяет за короткое время устранить ее основные клинические проявления, сохранив при этом возможность грудного вскармливания

Review article: Towards a context-driven research: A state-of-the-art review of resilience research on climate change

The twofold aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the current state of resilience research with regard to climate change in the social sciences and propose a research agenda. Resilience research among social scientists is characterized by much more diversity today than a few decades ago. Different definitions and understandings of resilience appear in publications during the last 10 years. Resilience research increasingly bears the mark of social constructivism, a relative newcomer compared to the more long-standing tradition of naturalism. There are also approaches that are indebted to both "naturalism" and "constructivism", which, of course, come in many varieties. Based on our overview of recent scholarship, which is far from being exhaustive, we have identified six research avenues that arguably deserve continued attention. They combine naturalist and constructivist insights and approaches so that human agency, reflexivity, and considerations of justice and equity are incorporated into systems thinking research or supplement such research. Ultimately, we believe that the overarching challenge for future research is to ensure that resilience to climate change does not compromise sustainability and considerations of justice (including environmental, climate, and energy justice).

Сучасний стан і проблеми управління залізничним транспортом України

Проаналізовано стан і тенденції розвитку залізничного транспорту. Розглянуті основні завдання державного регулювання галузі.Проанализировано состояние и тенденции развития железнодорожного транспорта. Рассмотренны основные задания государственного регулирования отрасли.The condition and trends of railway transport has been anilized. The main tasks of state regulation of railway transport has been considereted

Actual problems of child feeding in Ural region

The article presents data on modern state of child feeding problem, micronutrition providens of pregnant and breastfeeding women. Researching of health status shows actuality of prophylactic measures to prevent micronutrient deficiency in breast­feeding and artificial-feeding childs.В статье представлены данные о современном состоянии проблемы вскармливания детей, микронутриентной обеспеченности беременных и кормящих женщин. Проведен мониторинг состояния здоровья 123 детей первого года жизни. Полученные данные показывают актуальность мероприятий по профилактике микронутриентной недостаточности у детей, находящихся на различных видах вскармливания