Plausibility functions and exact frequentist inference

In the frequentist program, inferential methods with exact control on error rates are a primary focus. The standard approach, however, is to rely on asymptotic approximations, which may not be suitable. This paper presents a general framework for the construction of exact frequentist procedures based on plausibility functions. It is shown that the plausibility function-based tests and confidence regions have the desired frequentist properties in finite samples---no large-sample justification needed. An extension of the proposed method is also given for problems involving nuisance parameters. Examples demonstrate that the plausibility function-based method is both exact and efficient in a wide variety of problems.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figures, 3 table

Data-in-Place: Thinking through the Relations Between Data and Community

We present findings from a year-long engagement with a street and its community . The work is targeted at exploring how the production and use of data is bound up with place, both in terms of physical and social geography. We detail three strands of the project. First, we consider how residents have sought to curate existing data about the street in the form of an archive with physical and digital components. Second, we report endeavours to capture data about the street’s environment, especially of traffic moving through it. Third, we draw on the possibilities afforded by technologies for polling opinion. We reflect on how these engagements have: materialised distinctive relations between the community and their data; surfaced flows and contours of data , and spatial, temporal and social boundaries ;and enacted a multiplicity of ‘small worlds’. We consider how such a conceptualisation of data-in-place is relevant to the design of data technologies

Spontaneous CP Violation at the Electroweak Scale

Utilizing results on the cosmology of anomalous discrete symmetries we show that models of spontaneous CP violation can in principle avoid the domain wall problem first pointed out by Zel'dovich, Kobzarev and Okun. A small but nonzero $\theta_{QCD}$ explicitly breaks CP and can lift the degeneracy of the two CP conjugate vacua through nonperturbative effects so that the domain walls become unstable, but survive to cosmologically interesting epochs. We explore the viability of spontaneous CP violation in the context of two Higgs models, and find that the invisible axion solution of the strong CP problem cannot be implemented without further extensions of the Higgs sector.Comment: 10 page

A probabilistic approach for acoustic emission based monitoring techniques: with application to structural health monitoring

It has been demonstrated that acoustic-emission (AE), inspection of structures can offer advantages over other types of monitoring techniques in the detection of damage; namely, an increased sensitivity to damage, as well as an ability to localise its source. There are, however, numerous challenges associated with the analysis of AE data. One issue is the high sampling frequencies required to capture AE activity. In just a few seconds, a recording can generate very high volumes of data, of which a significant portion may be of little interest for analysis. Identifying the individual AE events in a recorded time-series is therefore a necessary procedure to reduce the size of the dataset. Another challenge that is also generally encountered in practice, is determining the sources of AE, which is an important exercise if one wishes to enhance the quality of the diagnostic scheme. In this paper, a state-of-the-art technique is presented that can automatically identify AE events, and simultaneously help in their characterisation from a probabilistic perspective. A nonparametric Bayesian approach, based on the Dirichlet process (DP), is employed to overcome some of the challenges associated with these tasks. Two main sets of AE data are considered in this work: (1) from a journal bearing in operation, and (2) from an Airbus A320 main landing gear subjected to fatigue testing

Fast evaluation of appointment schedules for outpatients in health care

We consider the problem of evaluating an appointment schedule for outpatients in a hospital. Given a fixed-length session during which a physician sees K patients, each patient has to be given an appointment time during this session in advance. When a patient arrives on its appointment, the consultations of the previous patients are either already finished or are still going on, which respectively means that the physician has been standing idle or that the patient has to wait, both of which are undesirable. Optimising a schedule according to performance criteria such as patient waiting times, physician idle times, session overtime, etc. usually requires a heuristic search method involving a huge number of repeated schedule evaluations. Hence, the aim of our evaluation approach is to obtain accurate predictions as fast as possible, i.e. at a very low computational cost. This is achieved by (1) using Lindley's recursion to allow for explicit expressions and (2) choosing a discrete-time (slotted) setting to make those expression easy to compute. We assume general, possibly distinct, distributions for the patient's consultation times, which allows us to account for multiple treatment types, as well as patient no-shows. The moments of waiting and idle times are obtained. For each slot, we also calculate the moments of waiting and idle time of an additional patient, should it be appointed to that slot. As we demonstrate, a graphical representation of these quantities can be used to assist a sequential scheduling strategy, as often used in practice

6-PACK programme to decrease fall injuries in acute hospitals: Cluster randomised controlled trial

Objective: To evaluate the effect of the 6-PACK programme on falls and fall injuries in acute wards. Design: Cluster randomised controlled trial. Setting: Six Australian hospitals. Participants: All patients admitted to 24 acute wards during the trial period. Interventions: Participating wards were randomly assigned to receive either the nurse led 6-PACK programme or usual care over 12 months. The 6-PACK programme included a fall risk tool and individualised use of one or more of six interventions: “falls alert” sign, supervision of patients in the bathroom, ensuring patients’ walking aids are within reach, a toileting regimen, use of a low-low bed, and use of a bed/chair alarm. Main outcome measures: The co-primary outcomes were falls and fall injuries per 1000 occupied bed days. Results: During the trial, 46 245 admissions to 16 medical and eight surgical wards occurred. As many people were admitted more than once, this represented 31 411 individual patients. Patients’ characteristics and length of stay were similar for intervention and control wards. Use of 6-PACK programme components was higher on intervention wards than on control wards (incidence rate ratio 3.05, 95% confidence interval 2.14 to 4.34; P<0.001). In all, 1831 falls and 613 fall injuries occurred, and the rates of falls (incidence rate ratio 1.04, 0.78 to 1.37; P=0.796) and fall injuries (0.96, 0.72 to 1.27; P=0.766) were similar in intervention and control wards. Conclusions: Positive changes in falls prevention practice occurred following the introduction of the 6-PACK programme. However, no difference was seen in falls or fall injuries between groups. High quality evidence showing the effectiveness of falls prevention interventions in acute wards remains absent. Novel solutions to the problem of in-hospital falls are urgently needed

Research Tools to Investigate Movements, Migrations, and Life History of Sturgeons (Acipenseridae), with an Emphasis on Marine-Oriented Populations

Worldwide, sturgeons (Acipenseridae) are among the most endangered fishes due to habitat degradation, overfishing, and inherent life history characteristics (long life span, late maturation, and infrequent spawning). As most sturgeons are anadromous, a considerable portion of their life history occurs in estuarine and marine environments where they may encounter unique threats (e.g., interception in non-target fisheries). Of the 16 marine-oriented species, 12 are designated as Critically Endangered by the IUCN, and these include species commercially harvested. We review important research tools and techniques (tagging, electronic tagging, genetics, microchemistry, observatory) and discuss the comparative utility of these techniques to investigate movements, migrations, and life-history characteristics of sturgeons. Examples are provided regarding what the applications have revealed regarding movement and migration and how this information can be used for conservation and management. Through studies that include Gulf (Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi) and Green Sturgeon (A. medirostris), we illustrate what is known about well-studied species and then explore lesser-studied species. A more complete picture of migration is available for North American sturgeon species, while European and Asian species, which are among the most endangered sturgeons, are less understood. We put forth recommendations that encourage the support of stewardship initiatives to build awareness and provide key information for population assessment and monitoring

Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem.

Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all anadromous Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) population units listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories. Units ranked most vulnerable overall were Chinook (O. tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley, coho (O. kisutch) in California and southern Oregon, sockeye (O. nerka) in the Snake River Basin, and spring-run Chinook in the interior Columbia and Willamette River Basins. We identified units with similar vulnerability profiles using a hierarchical cluster analysis. Life history characteristics, especially freshwater and estuary residence times, interplayed with gradations in exposure from south to north and from coastal to interior regions to generate landscape-level patterns within each species. Nearly all listing units faced high exposures to projected increases in stream temperature, sea surface temperature, and ocean acidification, but other aspects of exposure peaked in particular regions. Anthropogenic factors, especially migration barriers, habitat degradation, and hatchery influence, have reduced the adaptive capacity of most steelhead and salmon populations. Enhancing adaptive capacity is essential to mitigate for the increasing threat of climate change. Collectively, these results provide a framework to support recovery planning that considers climate impacts on the majority of West Coast anadromous salmonids