Primes in short intervals on curves over finite fields

We prove an analogue of the Prime Number Theorem for short intervals on a smooth projective geometrically irreducible curve of arbitrary genus over a finite field. A short interval “of size E” in this setting is any additive translate of the space of global sections of a sufficiently positive divisor E by a suitable rational function f. Our main theorem gives an asymptotic count of irreducible elements in short intervals on a curve in the “large q” limit, uniformly in f and E. This result provides a function field analogue of an unresolved short interval conjecture over number fields, and extends a theorem of Bary-Soroker, Rosenzweig, and the first author, which can be understood as an instance of our result for the special case of a divisor E supported at a single rational point on the projective line

The Hunger Games

Governments and their international agencies (FAO, World Bank) conceive of the eradication of hunger and poverty as a worthy wish that will eventually be realized through economic growth. They also make great cosmetic efforts to present as good-looking trend pictures as they can. Citizens ought to insist that the eradication of severe deprivations is a human rights correlative duty that permits no avoidable delay. Academics ought to collaborate toward providing a systematic alternative monitoring of what progress has really been made against undernourishment and other povertyrelated deprivations

The new resilience of emerging and developing countries: systemic interlocking, currency swaps and geoeconomics

The vulnerability/resilience nexus that defined the interaction between advanced and developing economies in the post-WWII era is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Yet, most of the debate in the current literature is focusing on the structural constraints faced by the Emerging and Developing Countries (EDCs) and the lack of changes in the formal structures of global economic governance. This paper challenges this literature and its conclusions by focusing on the new conditions of systemic interlocking between advanced and emerging economies, and by analysing how large EDCs have built and are strengthening their economic resilience. We find that a significant redistribution of ‘policy space’ between advanced and emerging economies have taken place in the global economy. We also find that a number of seemingly technical currency swap agreements among EDCs have set in motion changes in the very structure of global trade and finance. These developments do not signify the end of EDCs’ vulnerability towards advanced economies. They signify however that the economic and geoeconomic implications of this vulnerability have changed in ways that constrain the options available to advanced economies and pose new challenges for the post-WWII economic order

A State-Level Analysis of the Great Moderation

A number of studies have documented a reduction in aggregate macroeconomic volatility beginning in the early 1980s. Using an empirical model of business cycles, we extend this line of research to state-level employment data, find significant heterogeneity in the timing and magnitude of the state-level volatility reductions. In fact, some states experience no statistically-significant reduction in volatility. We then exploit this cross-sectional heterogeneity to evaluate three hypotheses about the origin of the aggregate volatility reduction. We show that states with relatively higher manufacturing concentration experience later breaks, a result that tends to contradict improved inventory management and a decline in the volatility of productivity shocks as possible explanations. Our results, then, are more consistent with monetary policy as the origin of the aggregate volatility reductiondisaggregation, volatility reduction, Markov-switching

Understanding Appalachian Microaggression from the Perspective of Community College Students in Southern West Virginia

The term Appalachian is wrongly understood to represent a single culture of rural White poverty (Keefe, 2005). This conception contains stereotypical images that obscure hardships many rural White Central Appalachians face. Similar to other oppressed minorities in the U.S., what it means to be Appalachian is a social construction based on what differs them from the White hegemony. Recent scholarship on discrimination recognizes the importance of microaggression, small insults and slights experienced frequently by people from minority groups (Sue, et. al., 2007). Microaggression may be an especially insidious mechanism in the oppression of Appalachian people, since the derogatory stereotypes are broadly accepted while their oppressed status tends to not be acknowledged. This study applied qualitative focus group methodology to understand perceptions of microaggression and oppression among a sample of college students living in rural Central Appalachia. Results reveal themes of microaggression. Identifying Appalachian microaggression provides evidence of marginalized status and offers a framework for understanding how the social construction of White Appalachian perpetuates reduced status, stereotypes, and prejudice. Implications are discussed to consider how to foster resilience to oppression among rural White Central Appalachian people

Geo-additive models of Childhood Undernutrition in three Sub-Saharan African Countries

We investigate the geographical and socioeconomic determinants of childhood undernutrition in Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia, three neighboring countries in Southern Africa using the 1992 Demographic and Health Surveys. We estimate models of undernutrition jointly for the three countries to explore regional patterns of undernutrition that transcend boundaries, while allowing for country-specific interactions. We use semiparametric models to flexibly model the effects of selected so-cioeconomic covariates and spatial effects. Our spatial analysis is based on a flexible geo-additive model using the district as the geographic unit of anal-ysis, which allows to separate smooth structured spatial effects from random effect. Inference is fully Bayesian and uses recent Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. While the socioeconomic determinants generally confirm what is known in the literature, we find distinct residual spatial patterns that are not explained by the socioeconomic determinants. In particular, there appears to be a belt run-ning from Southern Tanzania to Northeastern Zambia which exhibits much worse undernutrition, even after controlling for socioeconomic effects. These effects do transcend borders between the countries, but to a varying degree. These findings have important implications for targeting policy as well as the search for left-out variables that might account for these residual spatial patterns

Constraints to the sustainability of a ‘systematised’ approach to livestock marketing amongst smallholder cattle producers in South Africa

Commercialization of smallholder agriculture in South Africa is underpinned by reforms to improve livestock off-take in communal areas and engage smallholder farmers with formal markets. To achieve this, Custom Feeding Programmes (CFPs) were established to improve the condition of communal cattle prior to their sale into formal markets and to ‘systematise’ the informal marketing of cattle in communal areas by enabling participants to achieve higher informal market prices. We evaluate the sustainability of eight CFPs located in Eastern Cape Province in terms of their ability to add value to smallholder cattle production and encourage market participation. Communities with CFPs achieved a 16.6% mean cattle off-take rate, substantially higher than in most communal systems. Furthermore, cattle sold through CFPs attained a 17% higher mean selling price than those sold through other marketing channels. However, these benefits were mainly realized by better-off farmers with larger cattle herds and greater ability to transport animals to and from CFPs. More marginalized farmers, particularly women, had low participation. CFPs also face challenges to their sustainability, including inconsistent feed and water supplies, poor infrastructure and high staff turnover. Key to enhancing participation in CFPs, will be improving the way they are supported and embedded within communities

Impact of irreversibility and uncertainty on the timing of infrastructure projects

This paper argues that because of the irreversibility and uncertainty associated with Build - Operate - Transfer (BOT) infrastructure projects, their financial evaluation should also routinely include the determination of the value of the option to defer the construction start-up. This ensures that project viability is comprehensively assessed before any revenue or loan guarantees are considered by project sponsors to support the project. This paper shows that the framework can be used even in the context of the intuitive binomial lattice model. This requires estimating volatility directly from the evolution of the net operating income while accounting for the correlation between the revenue and costs functions. This approach ensures that the uncertainties usually associated with toll revenues, in particular, are thoroughly investigated and their impact on project viability is thoroughly assessed. This paper illustrates the usefulness of the framework with data from an actual (BOT) toll road project. The results show that by postponing the project for a couple of years the project turns out to be viable, whereas it was not without the deferral. The evaluation approach proposed therefore provides a better framework for determining when and the extent of government financial support, if any, that may be needed to support a BOT project on the basis of project economics. The analysis may also be applicable to private sector investment projects, which are characterized by irreversibility and a high rate of uncertainty