Gap and opportunity analysis of hydrological monitoring in the Ziway-Shala Sub-basin, Ethiopia

This working paper was prepared under a development and conservation project – Societal Development and Ecosystems Conservation in Sahelian Wetlands (SAWEL) – focusing on improving food security and nutrition in the Sahel region by helping to safeguard wetlands through ecologically sustainable agricultural water management. SAWEL is supported by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC). This paper provides an overview of the current situation with regards to hydrological monitoring in the Ziway-Shala sub-basin in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, including details of existing river and lake gauging stations in the sub-basin. The study was jointly conducted by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) and Hydrosolutions through consultation with staff of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin Development Office (RVLBDO), field trips to gauging stations, inspection of data recording books and reviewing previous studies. In addition to highlighting gaps in hydrological monitoring in the Ziway-Shala sub-basin, opportunities (e.g., remote sensing and citizen science) for novel, non-traditional hydrological monitoring are also presented

Current prevalence pattern of tobacco smoking in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background National smoking cessation strategies in Nigeria are hindered by lack of up-to-date epidemiologic data. We aimed to estimate prevalence of tobacco smoking in Nigeria to guide relevant interventions. Methods We conducted systematic search of publicly available evidence from 1990 through 2018. A random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression epidemiologic model were employed to determine prevalence and number of smokers in Nigeria in 1995 and 2015. Results Across 64 studies (n = 54,755), the pooled crude prevalence of current smokers in Nigeria was 10.4% (9.0–11.7) and 17.7% (15.2–20.2) for ever smokers. This was higher among men compared to women in both groups. There was considerable variation across geopolitical zones, ranging from 5.4% (North-west) to 32.1% (North-east) for current smokers, and 10.5% (South-east) to 43.6% (North-east) for ever smokers. Urban and rural dwellers had relatively similar rates of current smokers (10.7 and 9.1%), and ever smokers (18.1 and 17.0%). Estimated median age at initiation of smoking was 16.8 years (IQR: 13.5–18.0). From 1995 to 2015, we estimated an increase in number of current smokers from 8 to 11 million (or a decline from 13 to 10.6% of the population). The pooled mean cigarettes consumption per person per day was 10.1 (6.1–14.2), accounting for 110 million cigarettes per day and over 40 billion cigarettes consumed in Nigeria in 2015. Conclusions While the prevalence of smokers may be declining in Nigeria, one out of ten Nigerians still smokes daily. There is need for comprehensive measures and strict anti-tobacco laws targeting tobacco production and marketing

The burden of neglected tropical diseases in Ethiopia, and opportunities for integrated control and elimination

Background: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are a group of chronic parasitic diseases and related conditions that are the most common diseases among the 2·7 billion people globally living on less than US$2 per day. In response to the growing challenge of NTDs, Ethiopia is preparing to launch a NTD Master Plan. The purpose of this review is to underscore the burden of NTDs in Ethiopia, highlight the state of current interventions, and suggest ways forward. Results: This review indicates that NTDs are significant public health problems in Ethiopia. From the analysis reported here, Ethiopia stands out for having the largest number of NTD cases following Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Ethiopia is estimated to have the highest burden of trachoma, podoconiosis and cutaneous leishmaniasis in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the second highest burden in terms of ascariasis, leprosy and visceral leishmaniasis, and the third highest burden of hookworm. Infections such as schistosomiasis, trichuriasis, lymphatic filariasis and rabies are also common. A third of Ethiopians are infected with ascariasis, one quarter is infected with trichuriasis and one in eight Ethiopians lives with hookworm or is infected with trachoma. However, despite these high burdens of infection, the control of most NTDs in Ethiopia is in its infancy. In terms of NTD control achievements, Ethiopia reached the leprosy elimination target of 1 case/10,000 population in 1999. No cases of human African trypanosomiasis have been reported since 1984. Guinea worm eradication is in its final phase. The Onchocerciasis Control Program has been making steady progress since 2001. A national blindness survey was conducted in 2006 and the trachoma program has kicked off in some regions. Lymphatic Filariasis, podoconiosis and rabies mapping are underway. Conclusion: Ethiopia bears a significant burden of NTDs compared to other SSA countries. To achieve success in integrated control of NTDs, integrated mapping, rapid scale up of interventions and operational research into co implementation of intervention packages will be crucial

Estimating the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Nigeria in 2020: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Targeted public health response to obesity in Nigeria is relatively low due to limited epidemiologic understanding. We aimed to estimate nationwide and sub-national prevalence of overweight and obesity in the adult Nigerian population. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, and Africa Journals Online were systematically searched for relevant epidemiologic studies in Nigeria published on or after 01 January 1990. We assessed quality of studies and conducted a random-effects meta-analysis on extracted crude prevalence rates. Using a meta-regression model, we estimated the number of overweight and obese persons in Nigeria in the year 2020. Results From 35 studies (n = 52,816), the pooled crude prevalence rates of overweight and obesity in Nigeria were 25.0% (95% confidence interval, CI: 20.4–29.6) and 14.3% (95% CI: 12.0–15.5), respectively. The prevalence in women was higher compared to men at 25.5% (95% CI: 17.1–34.0) versus 25.2% (95% CI: 18.0–32.4) for overweight, and 19.8% (95% CI: 3.9–25.6) versus 12.9% (95% CI: 9.1–16.7) for obesity, respectively. The pooled mean body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference were 25.6 kg/m2 and 86.5 cm, respectively. We estimated that there were 21 million and 12 million overweight and obese persons in the Nigerian population aged 15 years or more in 2020, accounting for an age-adjusted prevalence of 20.3% and 11.6%, respectively. The prevalence rates of overweight and obesity were consistently higher among urban dwellers (27.2% and 14.4%) compared to rural dwellers (16.4% and 12.1%). Conclusions Our findings suggest a high prevalence of overweight and obesity in Nigeria. This is marked in urban Nigeria and among women, which may in part be due to widespread sedentary lifestyles and a surge in processed food outlets, largely reflective of a trend across many African settings

Bias-corrected CHIRP satellite rainfall for water level simulation, Lake Ziway, Ethiopia

Applicability of satellite rainfall products must be explored since rain gauge networks have limitations to provide adequate spatial coverage. In this study, Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation (CHIRP) satellite-only product was evaluated for rainfall-runoff modeling whereas the simulated runoff served as input to simulate the water levels of Lake Ziway from 1986 to 2014. CHIRP dataset was bias-corrected using power transformation and used as input to Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model to simulate streamflow of Meki and Katar catchments. Results showed that gauged catchments of Meki and Katar contributed 524 and 855 mm to the annual lake inflow, respectively. The estimated runoff from ungauged catchments is 182 mm that amounts to approximately 8.5% of the total lake inflow over the period 1986–2000. The results of lake level simulation show good agreement from 1986 to 2000, but deteriorating agreement after 2000, which is mainly attributed to errors in water balance terms and human-induced impacts. For the period 1986–2000, the water balance closure error for the lake was 67.5 mm per year, which accounts for 2.9% of the total lake inflow from rainfall and river inflow. This study shows bias correction increases the applicability of CHIRP satellite product for lake water balance studies

Implications of water abstraction on the interconnected Central Rift Valley Lakes sub-basin of Ethiopia using WEAP

Study region: Central Rift Valley Lakes sub-basin, Ethiopia. Study focus: The competition for water is rapidly increasing in Central Rift Valley lakes sub-basin due to the combined effect of various water resources developments. However, the impacts of recent and future water resources development pathways on the water balance of the three interconnected lakes (i.e. Lake Ziway, Langano and Abiyata) are unknown. The Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was used to assess the development impacts on water resources of the interconnected lakes. We considered three development pathways that are, recent (2009–2018), short-term (2019–2028) and long-term development (2029–2038). Lake Ziway water inflows from six catchments were estimated using the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model. Crop water requirements for irrigation schemes were estimated by the CROPWAT model. New hydrological insights for the region WEAP simulations show a total water demand of 102.3 Mm3 under the recent development pathway that increases by 46% and 118% for short-term and long-term development pathways, respectively. This will notably affect the water balance of the interconnected lakes and cause an unmet water demand of 47.9 Mm3 for the long-term (2028–2038). For Lake Ziway and Abiyata, water levels will decrease substantially to cause water scarcity in the long-term, and developments in Lake Ziway will significantly affect water storage in Lake Abiyata storages in Lake Abiyata. Overall, future developments will threaten the water resource of the interconnected lake system