Long-term cancer patient survival achieved by the end of the 20th century: most up-to-date estimates from the nationwide Finnish cancer registry

A new method of survival analysis, denoted period analysis, has recently been developed, which has been shown to provide more up-to-date estimates of long-term survival rates than traditional methods of survival analysis. We applied period analysis to data from the nationwide Finnish cancer registry to provide up-to-date estimates of 5-, 10-, 15- and 20-year relative survival rates (RSR) achieved by the end of the 20th century. For most forms of cancer, period estimates of long-term survival are much higher than corresponding traditional survival estimates which suggests that for these cancers there has been ongoing major progress in survival rates in recent years which so far has remained undisclosed by traditional methods of survival analysis. For example, period analysis reveals that 10 year RSR have come close to (or even exceed) 80% for cancer of the corpus uteri and melanoma, 75% for breast cancer, 70% for bladder cancer, 65% for cancer of the cervix uteri, and 55% for cancer of the colon and prostate. Period analysis further reveals that 20 year RSR have now come close to (or even exceed) 75% for endometrial cancer and melanoma, 60% for breast cancer and cervical cancer, 55% for colon cancer and bladder cancer, and 40%–50% for cancer of the rectum, the ovaries, kidneys and nervous system. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.co

Empirical evaluation of prediction intervals for cancer incidence

BACKGROUND: Prediction intervals can be calculated for predicting cancer incidence on the basis of a statistical model. These intervals include the uncertainty of the parameter estimates and variations in future rates but do not include the uncertainty of assumptions, such as continuation of current trends. In this study we evaluated whether prediction intervals are useful in practice. METHODS: Rates for the period 1993–97 were predicted from cancer incidence rates in the five Nordic countries for the period 1958–87. In a Poisson regression model, 95% prediction intervals were constructed for 200 combinations of 20 cancer types for males and females in the five countries. The coverage level was calculated as the proportion of the prediction intervals that covered the observed number of cases in 1993–97. RESULTS: Overall, 52% (104/200) of the prediction intervals covered the observed numbers. When the prediction intervals were divided into quartiles according to the number of cases in the last observed period, the coverage level was inversely proportional to the frequency (84%, 52%, 46% and 26%). The coverage level varied widely among the five countries, but the difference declined after adjustment for the number of cases in each country. CONCLUSION: The coverage level of prediction intervals strongly depended on the number of cases on which the predictions were based. As the sample size increased, uncertainty about the adequacy of the model dominated, and the coverage level fell far below 95%. Prediction intervals for cancer incidence must therefore be interpreted with caution

Age adjustment of cancer survival rates: methods, point estimates and standard errors

We empirically evaluated the performance of a new method for age adjustment of cancer survival compared to traditional age adjustment using data from the Finnish Cancer Registry. We find that both methods provide almost identical results for absolute survival but the new method generally provides more meaningful estimates of relative survival with often a smaller standard error

Estimating relative survival among people registered with cancer in England and Wales

Because routinely collected survival data for cancer patients in England and Wales do not typically specify cause of death, conventional estimates of survival in cancer patients based on such data are a measure of their mortality from all causes rather than their mortality due to cancer. As a result, trends in survival over time are difficult to interpret because changes in overall survival may well reflect changes in the risk of death from other causes, rather than from the cancer of interest. One way of overcoming this problem is to use some form of ‘relative survival’ defined as a measure of survival corrected for the effect of other independent causes of death. Since this concept was first introduced, various methods for calculating relative survival have been proposed and this had led to some confusion as to the most appropriate choice of estimate. This paper aims to provide an introduction to the concept of relative survival and reviews some of the suggested methods of estimation. In addition, a particularly simple, but robust approach, is highlighted based on expected and observed mortality. This method is illustrated using preliminary data from the Office for National Statistics on cancer survival in patients born after 1939 and diagnosed with cancer during 1972–84. The examples presented, although limited to analyses on a small number of selected sites, highlight some encouraging trends in survival in people aged under 35 diagnosed with leukaemia, Hodgkin's disease and testicular cancer during this period. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Dietary fat, cholesterol and colorectal cancer in a prospective study

The relationships between consumption of total fat, major dietary fatty acids, cholesterol, consumption of meat and eggs, and the incidence of colorectal cancers were studied in a cohort based on the Finnish Mobile Clinic Health Examination Survey. Baseline (1967–1972) information on habitual food consumption over the preceding year was collected from 9959 men and women free of diagnosed cancer. A total of 109 new colorectal cancer cases were ascertained late 1999. High cholesterol intake was associated with increased risk for colorectal cancers. The relative risk between the highest and lowest quartiles of dietary cholesterol was 3.26 (95% confidence interval 1.54–6.88) after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, occupation, smoking, geographic region, energy intake and consumption of vegetables, fruits and cereals. Consumption of total fat and intake of saturated, monounsaturated, or polyunsaturated fatty acids were not significantly associated with colorectal cancer risk. Nonsignificant associations were found between consumption of meat and eggs and colorectal cancer risk. The results of the present study indicate that high cholesterol intake may increase colorectal cancer risk, but do not suggest the presence of significant effects of dietary fat intake on colorectal cancer incidence. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.co

Substantial variation in therapy for colorectal cancer across Europe: EUROCARE analysis of cancer registry data for 1987

To provide a quantitative description of the treatments applied to malignant colorectal cancer across Europe, we analysed all cases (11 333) of colorectal cancer registered in 1987 by 15 Cancer Registries in eight European countries. In a third of cancer registries, therapy was known for all cases, in the others 1-15% of registrations lacked treatment information. Eighty per cent of all patients received surgical resection, ranging from 58% (Estonia) to 92% (Tarn). The proportion of resections decreased with advancing age (85-73% for colon cancer; 85-70% for rectal cancer for 74 years, respectively). Only 4% of colon cancer patients received adjuvant or palliative chemotherapy, range 1-12%. Sixteen per cent of rectal cancer patients received radiotherapy with great inter-registry variability (1-43%). Since the proportion of surgically resected patients correlated positively with the 5-year relative survival probability reported by the recently published EUROCARE study, this may be part of the explanation for the major differences in survival for these cancers among different European populations. The most likely determinant of this correlation is stage at diagnosis, but, quality of, and access to surgery, as well as access to endoscopy, may differ among countries and registry areas, and these may also contribute to inter-country survival differences. Copyrigh

Schizophrenia polygenic risk score and long-term success in the labour market : A cohort study

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The AuthorsEmployment is rare among people with a schizophrenia diagnosis. Meanwhile, a genetic liability for schizophrenia may hinder labour market performance. We studied how the polygenic risk score (PGS) for schizophrenia related to education and labour market outcomes. We found that a higher PGS was linked to lower educational levels and weaker labour market outcomes as well as a higher likelihood of receiving social income transfers, particularly among men. Assuming that the link is causal, our results indicate that individuals with schizophrenia or schizophrenia-related traits have a weakened ability to fully participate in the labour market, potentially reinforcing social exclusion.Peer reviewe