Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist. As numerical weather prediction models continue to improve, operational centres are increasingly using the meteorological output from these to drive hydrological models, creating hydrometeorological systems capable of forecasting river flow and flood events at much longer lead times than has previously been possible. Furthermore, developments in, for example, modelling capabilities, data and resources in recent years have made it possible to produce global scale flood forecasting systems. In this paper, the current state of operational large scale flood forecasting is discussed, including probabilistic forecasting of floods using ensemble prediction systems. Six state-of-the-art operational large scale flood forecasting systems are reviewed, describing similarities and differences in their approaches to forecasting floods at the global and continental scale. Currently, operational systems have the capability to produce coarse-scale discharge forecasts in the medium-range and disseminate forecasts and, in some cases, early warning products, in real time across the globe, in support of national forecasting capabilities. With improvements in seasonal weather forecasting, future advances may include more seamless hydrological forecasting at the global scale, alongside a move towards multi-model forecasts and grand ensemble techniques, responding to the requirement of developing multi-hazard early warning systems for disaster risk reduction

Anatomic-Clinical Presentation. Testicular Teratocarcinoma with Thoracic-Abdominal Adenopathy

peer reviewedThis case report of a young man with a testicular germ cell-teratoma tumor illustrates the necessity of a multidisciplinary sequential approach to ensure chance of cure. The outcome of patients with advanced germ cell tumor depends on the optimal clinical management. Residual masses are frequent, and their histology can be different than the initial one (i.e., only residual mature teratoma cells or necrosis-fibrosis). Therefore a second surgery on residual masses with curative intent, may be important to optimalize the treatment and follow up

Search for Kaluza-Klein Graviton Emission in ppˉp\bar{p} Collisions at s=1.8\sqrt{s}=1.8 TeV using the Missing Energy Signature

We report on a search for direct Kaluza-Klein graviton production in a data sample of 84 ${pb}^{-1}$ of \ppb collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 1.8 TeV, recorded by the Collider Detector at Fermilab. We investigate the final state of large missing transverse energy and one or two high energy jets. We compare the data with the predictions from a $3+1+n$-dimensional Kaluza-Klein scenario in which gravity becomes strong at the TeV scale. At 95% confidence level (C.L.) for $n$=2, 4, and 6 we exclude an effective Planck scale below 1.0, 0.77, and 0.71 TeV, respectively.Comment: Submitted to PRL, 7 pages 4 figures/Revision includes 5 figure

Measurement of the average time-integrated mixing probability of b-flavored hadrons produced at the Tevatron

We have measured the number of like-sign (LS) and opposite-sign (OS) lepton pairs arising from double semileptonic decays of $b$ and $\bar{b}$-hadrons, pair-produced at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. The data samples were collected with the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF) during the 1992-1995 collider run by triggering on the existence of $\mu \mu$ and $e \mu$ candidates in an event. The observed ratio of LS to OS dileptons leads to a measurement of the average time-integrated mixing probability of all produced $b$-flavored hadrons which decay weakly, $\bar{\chi} = 0.152 \pm 0.007$ (stat.) $\pm 0.011$ (syst.), that is significantly larger than the world average $\bar{\chi} = 0.118 \pm 0.005$.Comment: 47 pages, 10 figures, 15 tables Submitted to Phys. Rev.

Differential Production Cross Section of Z Bosons as a Function of Transverse Momentum at sqrt{s}=1.8 TeV

We present a measurement of the transverse momentum distribution of Z bosons produced in ppbar collisions at sqrt{s}=1.8 TeV using data collected by the D0 experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider during 1994--1996. We find good agreement between our data and a current resummation calculation. We also use our data to extract values of the non-perturbative parameters for a particular version of the resummation formalism, obtaining significantly more precise values than previous determinations.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. Letters v2 has margin error correcte

The Azimuthal Decorrelation of Jets Widely Separated in Rapidity

This study reports the first measurement of the azimuthal decorrelation between jets with pseudorapidity separation up to five units. The data were accumulated using the D{\O}detector during the 1992--1993 collider run of the Fermilab Tevatron at $\sqrt{s}=$ 1.8 TeV. These results are compared to next--to--leading order (NLO) QCD predictions and to two leading--log approximations (LLA) where the leading--log terms are resummed to all orders in $\alpha_{\scriptscriptstyle S}$. The final state jets as predicted by NLO QCD show less azimuthal decorrelation than the data. The parton showering LLA Monte Carlo {\small HERWIG} describes the data well; an analytical LLA prediction based on BFKL resummation shows more decorrelation than the data.Comment: 6 pages with 4 figures, all uuencoded and gzippe

Search for First Generation Scalar Leptoquark Pairs in ppbar Collisions at sqrt(s)=1.8 TeV

We have searched for first generation scalar leptoquark (LQ) pairs in the enu+jets channel using ppbar collider data (integrated luminosity= 115 pb^-1) collected by the DZero experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron during 1992-96. The analysis yields no candidate events. We combine the results with those from the ee+jets and nunu+jets channels to obtain 95% confidence level (CL) upper limits on the LQ pair production cross section as a function of mass and of beta, the branching fraction to a charged lepton. Comparing with the next-to-leading order theory, we set 95% CL lower limits on the LQ mass of 225, 204, and 79 GeV/c^2 for beta=1, 1/2, and 0, respectively.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Physical Review Letters Replaced to correct visitor addresse

Search for Squarks and Gluinos in Events Containing Jets and a Large Imbalance in Transverse Energy

Using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 79 pb-1, D0 has searched for events containing multiple jets and large missing transverse energy in pbar-p collisions at sqrt(s)=1.8 TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. Observing no significant excess beyond what is expected from the standard model, we set limits on the masses of squarks and gluinos and on the model parameters m_0 and m_1/2, in the framework of the minimal low-energy supergravity models of supersymmetry. For tan(beta) = 2 and A_0 = 0, with mu < 0, we exclude all models with m_squark < 250 GeV/c^2. For models with equal squark and gluino masses, we exclude m < 260 GeV/c^2.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, Submitted to PRL, Fixed typo on page bottom of p. 6 (QCD multijet background is 35.4 events