Spike-and-Slab Priors for Function Selection in Structured Additive Regression Models

Structured additive regression provides a general framework for complex Gaussian and non-Gaussian regression models, with predictors comprising arbitrary combinations of nonlinear functions and surfaces, spatial effects, varying coefficients, random effects and further regression terms. The large flexibility of structured additive regression makes function selection a challenging and important task, aiming at (1) selecting the relevant covariates, (2) choosing an appropriate and parsimonious representation of the impact of covariates on the predictor and (3) determining the required interactions. We propose a spike-and-slab prior structure for function selection that allows to include or exclude single coefficients as well as blocks of coefficients representing specific model terms. A novel multiplicative parameter expansion is required to obtain good mixing and convergence properties in a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation approach and is shown to induce desirable shrinkage properties. In simulation studies and with (real) benchmark classification data, we investigate sensitivity to hyperparameter settings and compare performance to competitors. The flexibility and applicability of our approach are demonstrated in an additive piecewise exponential model with time-varying effects for right-censored survival times of intensive care patients with sepsis. Geoadditive and additive mixed logit model applications are discussed in an extensive appendix

Life table analysis of Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) infesting sweet orange (Citrus sinensis) in São Paulo

An ecological life table for eggs and nymphs of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) was constructed with data obtained from orange orchards (Citrus sinensis Osbeck) in 2 regions of the State of São Paulo, over 4 generations in the period from XI-2006 to V-2007, comprising spring, summer, and fall seasons. Young growing shoots with D. citri eggs present were identifed, and live individuals were counted until adult emergence. No predatory arthropods were observed in association with D. citri eggs and nymphs during the study. The mean parasitism of fourth- and ffth-instar nymphs by Tamarixia radiata Waterston (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) was 2.3%. The durations of the egg–adult period were similar among the 4 generations, ranging from 18.0 to 24.7 d (at mean temperatures ranging from 21.6 to 26.0 °C) and followed the temperature requirement models obtained in the laboratory for D. citri. However, survival from the egg to the adult stage for the same period varied considerably from 1.7 to 21.4%; the highest mortalities were observed in the egg and small nymphal (frst- to thirdinstar) stages, which were considered to be key phases for population growth of the pest.Uma tabela de vida ecológica foi construída para ovos e ninfas de Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) com dados obtidos em pomares de laranja (Citrus sinensis Osbeck) em 2 regiões do estado de São Paulo, com 4 gerações, no período de novembro de 2006 a maio de 2007, compreendendo as estações de primavera, verão e outono. Ramos jovens em crescimento com a presença de ovos de D. citri foram identificados e os indivíduos vivos foram contados até a emergência dos adultos. Nenhum predador foi observado associado a ovos e ninfas de D. citri durante o estudo. A taxa média de parasitismo de ninfas de quarto e quinto ínstares por Tamarixia radiata Waterson (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) foi de 2.3%. A duração do período de ovo a adulto foi semelhante entre as quatro gerações, variando de 18.0 a 24.7 dias (com temperaturas médias de 21.6 a 26.0 °C) e seguiram os modelos de exigencias térmicas obtidas em laboratório para D. citri. Todavia, a sobrevivencia de ovo até o estágio adulto variou consideravelmente para o mesmo período, de 1.7 a 21.4%, sendo que as maiores mortalidades foram observadas nos estágios de ovos e ninfas pequenas (de primeiro a terceiro ínstares), as quais foram consideradas fases chaves para o crescimento populacional desta praga.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Data mining in collections: from epidemiology to demography

Random collection surveys can be a rich source of data on the material state of a collection. However, random surveys do not necessarily provide data on the causes of degradation of collection items, which is useful in terms of resource allocation. For this, the reliability theory provides us with the required concepts. Using appropriate survey methods and statistical methods of data analysis, the so obtained observational ‘epidemiology’ data has revealed risk factors that can lead to such degradation. We identified patterns in the observed data that corroborated experimental research findings and enabled us to carry out ‘demographic’ modelling of the dynamics of future change in the surveyed collection for the case study of the Amsterdam City Archives. The study shows how, using appropriate methods of collection surveying, empirical and modelling studies of real collections can be successfully integrated, leading to useful evidence supporting collection care decision making

Classifying degraded modern polymeric museum artefacts by their smell

Volatile organic compound (VOC) analysis is a successful method for diagnosing medical conditions such as Alzheimer’s disease. However, despite its relevance to heritage, it has found little application in museums. We report the first use of VOC analysis to ‘diagnose’ degradation in modern polymeric museum artefacts. Modern polymers are increasingly found in museum collections but pose serious conservation difficulties due to unstable and widely varying formulations. Solid-phase microextraction gas chromatography/mass spectrometry and linear discriminant analysis were used to classify samples according to the length of time they had been artificially degraded. Classification accuracies of 50-83% were obtained after validation with separate test sets. The method was applied to three artefacts from collections at Tate to detect evidence of degradation. This novel approach could be used for any material in heritage collections and more widely in the field of polymer degradation

Diseño de una nueva crepina para reducir la caida de presión en filtros de arena

La filtración es necesaria para evitar la obturación de los emisores, que es el principal problema del riego por goteo. Sin embargo, los filtros necesitan presiones elevadas que están relacionadas con un mayor consumo energético. Estudios anteriores han mostrado que la caída de presión en los filtros de arena, considerados como los estándares en riego por goteo, se localiza principalmente en el drenaje. El principal objetivo del trabajo fue diseñar un nuevo modelo de crepina que redujera la caída de presión en el filtro. Esta nueva crepina tiene mayores pasajes a la salida del drenaje, está rodeada con un medio granular de mayor conductividad hidráulica y modifica la curvatura del flujo por encima de la crepina. La nueva crepina fue construida y ensayada en condiciones de filtrado y contralavado, con y sin medio filtrante, en un filtro de laboratorio escalado a partir de un filtro comercial. Esta nueva crepina redujo considerablemente la caída de presión con respecto el diseño comercial. Se desarrolló también un modelo CFD para analizar con detalle las zonas donde se consigue la reducción observada.Filtration is mandatory for preventing emitter clogging, which is the main drawback of microirrigation. However, microirrigation filters have high pressure requirements, which in turn are related to higher energy consumption. Previous studies have shown that pressure loss in sand media filters, which are usually considered the standard for microirrigation, are mainly located in the filter underdrain. The main objective was to design a new underdrain that could reduce sand media filter pressure drop. The new underdrain has wider passages to the underdrain outlet, is surrounded with a granular medium with higher hydraulic conductivity and it modifies the flow curvature above the underdrain. The new underdrain was built and tested under filtration and backwashing conditions and with and without filter bed using a laboratory filter which was scaled from a commercial filter. The new underdrain considerably reduced pressure loss compared with a commercial filter. A CFD model was developed for further study those filter areas where the underdrain achieved a higher reduction of pressure drop

Sampling and distribution pattern of Trioza erytreae Del Guercio, 1918 (Hemiptera: Triozidae) in citrus orchard

Developing efficient sampling protocols is essential to monitor crop pests. One vector of the citrus disease HLB, the African citrus psyllid Trioza erytreae Del Guercio, 1918 (Hemiptera: Triozidae), currently threatens the lemon industry throughout the Mediterranean region. In this work, a pool of sampling methods devoted to monitoring the population of T. erytreae was compared, its spatial distribution in the orchard was assessed, and the minimum sampling effort for the best sampling method was estimated. Three lemon orchards in North-western Portugal were sampled for one year using two types of yellow sticky traps (standard yellow and fluorescent Saturn yellow), B-vac sampling and sweep net sampling. The method that best performed, in terms of cost-efficiency, was the yellow sticky traps. The two colours of the sticky traps tested did not yield a significantly different number of catches. The spatial distribution throughout the orchards was found to be aggregated towards the borders. A minimum of three sticky traps per hectare was found to be enough to estimate the population at 90% accuracy for the mean during the outbreak. These results should help to monitor and anticipate outbreaks that may even colonize neighbour orchards. Studies on the local dispersion patterns of T. erytreae throughout the orchard are mandatory to further refine and optimize efficient monitoring protocols.The authors are grateful to the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT, Portugal), for financial support through national funds FCT/MCTES to CIMO (UIDB/00690/2020) and to the project PRE-HLB-Preventing HLB epidemics for ensuring citrus survival in Europe (H2020-SFS-2018-2 Topic SFS-05-2018-2019-2020, proj. No. 817526).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

An effector from the Huanglongbing-associated pathogen targets citrus proteases

The citrus industry is facing an unprecedented challenge from Huanglongbing (HLB). All cultivars can be affected by the HLB-associated bacterium ‘Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’ (CLas) and there is no known resistance. Insight into HLB pathogenesis is urgently needed in order to develop effective management strategies. Here, we use Sec-delivered effector 1 (SDE1), which is conserved in all CLas isolates, as a molecular probe to understand CLas virulence. We show that SDE1 directly interacts with citrus papain-like cysteine proteases (PLCPs) and inhibits protease activity. PLCPs are defense-inducible and exhibit increased protein accumulation in CLas-infected trees, suggesting a role in citrus defense responses. We analyzed PLCP activity in field samples, revealing specific members that increase in abundance but remain unchanged in activity during infection. SDE1-expressing transgenic citrus also exhibit reduced PLCP activity. These data demonstrate that SDE1 inhibits citrus PLCPs, which are immune-related proteases that enhance defense responses in plants

Orange jasmine as a trap crop to control Diaphorina citri

[EN] Novel, suitable and sustainable alternative control tactics that have the potential to reduce migration of Diaphorina citri into commercial citrus orchards are essential to improve management of huanglongbing (HLB). In this study, the effect of orange jasmine (Murraya paniculata) as a border trap crop on psyllid settlement and dispersal was assessed in citrus orchards. Furthermore, volatile emission profiles and relative attractiveness of both orange jasmine and sweet orange (Citrus¿×¿aurantium L., syn. Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck) nursery flushes to D. citri were investigated. In newly established citrus orchards, the trap crop reduced the capture of psyllids in yellow sticky traps and the number of psyllids that settled on citrus trees compared to fallow mowed grass fields by 40% and 83%, respectively. Psyllids were attracted and killed by thiamethoxam-treated orange jasmine suggesting that the trap crop could act as a `sink¿ for D. citri. Additionally, the presence of the trap crop reduced HLB incidence by 43%. Olfactometer experiments showed that orange jasmine plays an attractive role on psyllid behavior and that this attractiveness may be associated with differences in the volatile profiles emitted by orange jasmine in comparison with sweet orange. Results indicated that insecticide-treated M. paniculata may act as a trap crop to attract and kill D. citri before they settled on the edges of citrus orchards, which significantly contributes to the reduction of HLB primary spread.This work was supported by Fund for Citrus Protection (Fundecitrus) and by Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP) (Proc. 2015/07011-3). We thank Moacir Celio Vizone, Felipe Marinho Martini and Joao Pedro Ancoma Lopes for technical support with experiments. Furthermore, we thank Cambuhy Agricola Ltda. and University of Araraquara (Uniara) for providing the areas in which the field experiments were performed. 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