Air pollutants and energy pathways : Extending models for abatement strategies

This study presents the development and applications of regional and local scale models for use in integrated assessment of air pollution effects in conjunction with large-scale models. A regional deposition model called DAIQUIRI (Deposition, AIr QUality and Integrated Regional Information) for integrated assessment purposes in Finland was constructed, and regional matrices for nitrogen oxides and ammonia were developed from the results of the regional air quality model of the FMI. DAIQUIRI produced similar estimates of deposition from Finnish sources as the original model, and long-term trends and the average level of deposition estimated with DAIQUIRI were found comparable with the monitored deposition levels and trends. For the mid-nineties situation, the regional nitrogen modeling resulted in 9% to 19% (depending on the region compared) larger estimates of areas with acidity critical load exceedances than when using European scale nitrogen deposition modeling.In this work, also a method for estimating the impacts of local NOx emissions on urban and sub-urban ozone levels was developed and tested. The study concentrated on representing the destruction of ozone by fresh NO emissions in urban areas for future use in integrated assessment modeling of ozone control strategies. Correlation coefficients between measured daytime ozone values in the study area were found to improve from 0.64 (correlation between urban and surrounding rural measurements) to 0.85, on the average. The average correlation between daytime large-scale model estimates and urban site measurements was found to improve from 0.37 to 0.58.In the study, also integrated assessment model applications were carried out at European, national and local levels. The synergies between control strategies for CO2 and acidification and ozone formation in the case of the UN/FCCC Kyoto protocol and the air quality targets of the EU were assessed with the help of coupled models. With two alternative energy scenarios reflecting the Kyoto targets for CO2, reductions of sulfur and NOx emissions between 12% and 22% and 8% to 12%, respectively, were estimated by 2010 in the EU-15 with the present emission control legislation. Due to the lower activity levels generating less emissions and the cleaner energy forms used, 35-43% cost savings in further technical emission controls required for achieving the EU air quality targets would be achieved with the scenarios studied. Case studies for Finland indicated that there has been a decrease of 60% in the area at risk of acidification from 1990 to 1995, and that the declining trend is expected to continue due to the recent international emission reduction agreements within the UN/ECE and the EU. Implementation of the Kyoto protocol in Finland and in the whole of EU-15 (with the present emission legislation) could bring up to 8% more reduction of ecosystems at risk of acidification in Finland by 2010 than the recent UN/ECE protocol.An uncertainty analysis of acidification integrated assessment modeling in Finland indicated that critical loads dominate the uncertainty. Estimates are becoming more robust, as the general level of deposition is decreasing. In Finland, further efforts to reduce the overall uncertainty should be mainly directed to more accurate description of critical thresholds. In areas affected by major nearby emission sources, also uncertainties in emissions and deposition are significant. The models and their applications presented in this study contributed to identifying the problem characteristics and have supported environmental policy development at international, national and regional levels

Electricity Market Impacts of Low-carbon Energy Transition in the Nordic-Baltic Region

The Baltic countries Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are well connected to the Nordic countries Finland and Sweden on the electricity market, yet in a different position facing the transition to a low-carbon electricity system. While especially Sweden is a large electricity producer and net exporter, the Baltic countries suffer from a lack of capacity, which makes them highly dependent on trade. In addition, the present electricity mix of Estonia is very carbon intensive compared to the Nordic countries. There is a debate regarding nuclear power in Sweden. This paper explores four possible solutions for a Nordic-Baltic electricity system: with and without nuclear power in Sweden and with the current transmission network, as well as with a considerably expanded network. The impact on electricity mix, electricity prices, carbon dioxide intensity and import dependence in the Baltic countries from the EU transition to electricity systems with very low carbon dioxide emissions is investigated. The electricity and district heat market model Enerallt is used to quantify electricity prices, electricity trade and system costs. The results show that the development of the transmission network affects electricity prices and especially electricity trade in the Baltic countries. With transmission expansion, the demand weighted average prices in the Baltic countries increase from 62 €/MWh to 65 €/MWh and 70 €/MWh with and without nuclear power in Sweden, respectively. If transmission is expanded, phasing out nuclear power in Sweden can increase the revenue from electricity export by over 100% for the Baltic countries. However, significant new investment in wind power is required

Finland’s Dependence on Russian Energy-Mutually Beneficial Trade Relations or an Energy Security Threat?

Studies on energy security in the context of relations between European Union (EU) and Russia tend to focus on cases, with an open conflict related to supply, such as “hard” energy weapons, or on only one fuel, often natural gas. However, there is a need to understand the long-term impacts that energy relations have politically, economically and physically, and their linkages between resilience, sustainability and security. We analyse the Finnish-Russian energy relations as a case study, as they are characterised by a non-conflictual relationship. To assess this complex relationship, we apply the interdependence framework to analyse both the energy systems and energy strategies of Finland and Russia, and the energy security issues related to the notable import dependence on one supplier. Moreover, we analyse the plausible development of the energy trade between the countries in three different energy policy scenarios until 2040. The findings of the article shed light on how the trends in energy markets, climate change mitigation and broader societal and political trends could influence Russia’s energy trade relations with countries, such as Finland. Our analysis shows that Finland’s dependence on primary energy imports does not pose an acute energy security threat in terms of sheer supply, and the dependence is unlikely to worsen in the future. However, due to the difficulty in anticipating societal, political, and economic trends, there are possible developments that could affect Finland.Peer reviewe

The direct interconnection of the UK and Nordic power market – Impact on social welfare and renewable energy integration

United Kingdom and the Nordic power market have plans to interlink directly through a sub-sea power transmission line in The North Sea. Such power market couplings have complicated implications for the interconnected energy systems and for different agents in the common power market. We analyse this case by modelling the hourly operation of the Nordic-UK power market coupling, considering the local district heating (DH) system in each country as well. According to the results, after the operation of the new interconnection between Norway and the UK (North Sea Link), the overall socio-economic benefits (social welfare) in the region will likely improve by 220–230 million euro per year, without considering the cost of the interconnector itself. The UK-Nordic market coupling enhances the flexibility of the UK power system in wind integration, irrespective of the share of wind in the Nordic countries. However, increasing wind capacity in the UK will diminish the expected economic benefits of the link. The merit order effect of wind integration in the UK will reduce the price gap between UK and Norway, and so the congestion income of the link in many hours a year when the link is congested from Norway towards the UK

Bioenergy development in the UK & Nordic countries: A comparison of effectiveness of support policies for sustainable development of the bioenergy sector

This paper uses both quantitative and qualitative analyses to evaluate the effectiveness of government policy and support mechanisms in the UK, Sweden, Denmark and Finland in promoting bioenergy – a key technology fundamental to each country's decarbonisation strategies. It is crucial that countries develop effective policies and support mechanisms to grow sustainable bioenergy sectors. This paper analyses the success of bioenergy policies within each country and evaluates the importance of wider independent variables that collectively characterise the background to energy sector, economic and environmental dynamics. Statistical correlation and regression analyses are applied to identify if the policy landscape has had an identifiable impact on actual bioenergy development. Furthermore, the outputs from a stakeholder workshop and expert interviews are analysed to identify drivers and barriers to bioenergy. The result is a comprehensive analysis of the successes and challenges in bioenergy development, and possible lessons that can be drawn for future promotion of the sector. The research finds that the UK and Nordic countries have had different yet equally successful approaches to promoting bio-power and bio-heat respectively. However, the influence of wider factors within different countries is found to have a potentially greater collective impact on bioenergy than any single policy mechanism. Thus there is credence in learning lessons from what does and does not work in different countries, but countries also need to develop their own brands of policy interventions that suit their country's unique challenges

Consumers’ Attitudes to Support Green Energy: A Case Study in Shanghai

Residents’ willingness to use green energy products is a major concern for different stakeholders and policymakers due to the reformed Chinese electricity market since 2015. This study focused on the Chinese consumer’s willingness to opt and pay for environmentally-friendly electricity sources in Shanghai’s residential sector. A questionnaire survey was used to find out the influence of gender, age, education, awareness and income level on consumers’ attitudes to alter their energy sources to green ones. The results indicated that income level and awareness are significant barriers in the usage of green energy products. Increasing the respondent’s awareness about the issues of non-green energy products convinced 97% of them to change their electricity sources completely or partly, in line with their monthly income. This clearly shows that clarifying the benefits of green energy products is a key tool to achieve a green environment in China